Corrections and bears a good thing
As uncomfortable as it can be listening to all the talking heads sound as though the world is coming to an end with respect to the very natural movements of stock prices going down, the truth is—and always has been—stock prices go up and down. Bears and bulls, while the don’t live in the same pen, are typically natural occurrences within the investing arena. So instead of reaching for that second bottle of Jim Beam, get a paper and pencil out and do some math.
Figuring out how your portfolio(s) has weathered this current nearly 10% fall in prices has impacted your wealth is the best thing you can do under these market conditions. In fact, that’s the best thing you can do no matter which animal is roaming Wall Street, the bears or the bulls.
With that in mind, here are three market-related points to ponder:
- From Goldman Sachs comes this posted at TheStret.com: “Most equity market corrections recover without developing into bear markets or presaging recessions. Of 16 drawdowns of 10% plus since 1976, only five occurred around a recession. S&P 500 typically declined by 15% during the 11 non-recession corrections.”
- For the second week in a row, the Merrill Lynch bull-bear indicator is flashing “sell”. This indicator has been correct in predicting 11 out of the 11 U.S. stock market corrections since 2002.
- To be called a “bear market”, broad market indexes have to fall 20% or more from their peak over a two-month period.
Market Quick Glance
See-sawing from down a 1000 points to up 500 then down again. Go figure.
Every index followed here is underwater with respect to its year-to-date returns. And that’s the bad news. The good news happens when you take a longer term look. Then you will learn that three of the four indices have just fine double-digit 1-year performance returns. The exception is the Russell 2000.
Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Feb. 9, 2018.
–DJIA -2.14% YTD down and in minus territory from last week’s +3.24%
- 1 yr Rtn +19.92% down from last week’s 28.34%
Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.
-S&P 500 -2.02% YTD down and in minus territory from last week’s 3.31%
- 1 yr Rtn +13.51% down from last week’s 21.10%
The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.
-NASDAQ -0.42 YTD down and in minus territory from last week’s 4.89%
- 1yr Rtn +20.28% down from last week’s 28.47%
Nasdaq latest new all-time high of 7,505.77 was reached on January 26, 2018. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 7,336.38.
-Russell 2000 -3.76%YTD down and in minus territory from last week’s +0.77%
- 1yr Rtn +7.20% down a pinch from last week’s +13.99%
The Russell 2000 reached an all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.
After up comes down. And then more down.
For the first time this year, the year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds that fall under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was underwater: On Thursday, Feb. 8, 2018, it stood at -3.40%. had That’s down from the +4.44% posted one week earlier.
Of the 20 different fund types that fall under the umbrella heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Funds, only one had a positive year-to-date return. It was the Dedicated Short Bias Funds of which Lipper tracks 164. The average return for funds under its heading was +3.08%
The broad umbrella headings’ y-t-d performances though 2/8/18 were as follows:
- U.S. Diversified Equity Funds, -3.40%
- Sector Equity Funds, -4.82%
- World Equity Funds, -2.16%
- Mixed Asset Funds, -2.47%
- Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds, 0.93%
- World Income Funds, 0.22%
Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.
Gold not so golden
Once thought as a safe haven for whatever crapola is going on with stock prices, investing in gold was thought of as a no-brainer. This precious metal has always been pitched as an asset investors ought to commit about 5% of their portfolio to.
The thinking for that suggestion has been— when stock prices fall the price of gold would increase. And the proof was in the past-performance pudding.
From CNBC.com comes this: “During the 2008 crisis when the S&P 500 Index lost 57 percent in market capitalization, gold rose 24 percent. Earlier in the bear market from 2000 to 2002, theS&P lost 49% while gold added nearly 13 percent.”
The performance numbers in that paragraph are good to remember.
Nonetheless, gold prices haven’t behaved as expected and have fallen by about 2% so far this month, according to that same source.