POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.24, 2018

• Historic sense

Here’s something to think about from  Wall Street journalist and author Jonathan Clements’ weekly news blog, HumbleDollar:The View From Here:

“History suggests that, five years from now, share prices will be no lower than they are today , and 10 years from now they’ll be handsomely higher. But at times like this, history can be scant comfort.”

So true, Jonathan.

But let me add to that: When I was in the broker biz, the historic data showed way back then that any risks to investing in equities were equalized after 20 years.

I like Jonathan’s data better.

One final reminder: No one has ever gone broke taking the profits their stocks had rewarded them with.

 

• Market Quick Glance

P.U.

If you were looking for good news re the performance of the major indices, the one place you could look is at  1-year returns. With the exception of the Russell 2000, all three others have 1-year returns that closed the week in positive territory.

As for the Thanksgiving week historic returns….forgetabout’em. Turkeys every where on Wall Street.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 23, 2018.

–DJIA -1.75% YTD back down in minus-land from the previous week’s return of 2.81%.

• 1 yr Rtn 3.23% way down from the previous week 8.33%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 -1,54% YTD way down and in minus-land from last week’s 2.34%

• 1 yr. Rtn 1.37% way down from last week’s 6.10%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 0.52% YTD way down from last week’s 4.99%

• 1yr Rtn 1.04% way down from last week’s 6.69%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -3.05% YTD down more from last week’s -0.52%

• 1yr Rtn -1.85%3% down into minus-land from last week’s 2.73%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

A Repeat from last week:

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Warren Buffett likes these dividend-paying stocks

Fans of this old man investor might enjoy learning that Warren Buffett likes dividend- paying stocks—particularly those with respectable dividend yields.

Last week, Investors’ Business Daily, published a piece about five stocks in Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio. Even though Berkshire Hathaway is down, good guess the prices on some, any or all of these companies may be too but the good news here means their dividend yields could be even sweeter.

The five stocks are:

-Kraft Heinz Stock (KHC), dividend yield 4.8%.

-Store Capital (STOR), dividend yield 4.5%

-General Motors (GM), dividend yield 4.3%

-Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), dividend yield 4.3%

-Verizon (VZ), dividend yield 4%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.17, 2018

                Thanksgiving at grandma’s 1976.

• Thanksgiving

If there were only one day each year I could pick to celebrate, it would be Thanksgiving.

No matter what one’s race, income level, age, gender, faith affiliation, political point of view, height, weight, married, single, with or without children or immediate family, it’s the one day when each of us can take the time to slow down, breathe deeply and think about all the things we have to be thankful for.

Whether it’s simply the fact that we are giving thanks for being alive, or celebrating our various good or bad fortunes, the value in giving thanks is as intimate and personal a gesture as mindful prayer is: Giving thanks transcends the material and enriches our souls in incalculable almost inconceivable ways.

So be thankful.  It’s a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

• Market Quick Glance

As you might expect, index returns weren’t so hot last week with both the DJIA and S&P 500 losing strength and returning to about half of what their year-to-date returns were two weeks ago.

For anyone curious about how past markets have performed during Thanksgiving week, the historic news is that typically it’s been  a good week for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.6% during the week, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Here’s a chart from them showing the data:

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018.

–DJIA 2.81% YTD down from the previous week’s return of 5.14%.

• 1 yr Rtn 8.33% from the previous week 10.77 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 2.34% YTD way up from last week’s 4.02%

• 1 yr. Rtn 6.10% down from last week’s 7.60%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 4.99% YTD way down from last week’s 7.29%

• 1yr Rtn 6.69% up a bit from last week’s 9.73%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.52% YTD back to underwater from last week’s 0.91%

• 1yr Rtn 2.73% down a lot from last week’s 5.05%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Predictions

It’s started.

Talking heads typically begin mouthing off about what their next year market predictions are right after Thanksgiving.

I’ve read a couple, so far. Some see the S&P 500 hitting 3,000. Others figure a recession is on the way. Still others say it’s gonna be a bad year for equities; a good year for fixed-income.

Personally, at this point in time, I don’t have an inkling of what’s to come in 2019.

But one thing I do know for sure—and can guarantee—it’s that tax time is right around the corner. Making sure your investment ducks are in a row and what’s been bought and sold is clearly documented.

Trump’s tax plan will no doubt disappoint  millions of individual investors and delight a few. To help plan your tax future, take a look at IRS Publication 5307, Tax Reform: Basics for individuals and Families.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.10, 2018

• Your kids’ tomorrow incomes

My parents, both long gone, were part of a generation that veteran news broadcaster and journalist Tom Brokaw referred to as The Greatest Generation in his book by that same title.

While today we honor the many millions who lost their lives in World War 1, the children born after that war that ened  100 years ago on November 11, 1918,  pretty much spawned The Greatest Generation—a generation that grew up to fight in another war, World War 11.

Those who came home after WW11 returned to a country filled with opportunity and promise— economic opportunity that rewarded anyone willing to work and to save for their futures. And, in many cases, to build an inheritance for their offspring.

You  didn’t have to be a Vet, or an Ivy League or Big 10 college graduate to partake in the majority of those economic opportunities. Pretty much all a person had to do was to show up for work,  work one job and to save for his or her future.

But that was then; this is now. And, over the last 50 years, the odds of Baby Boomer’s kids’ earning more than their Greatest Generation parents have has been losing ground.

According to a recent Bloomberg.com Opinion piece, “Only about half of 30-year-olds now make more money than their parents did at a similar age.”

Although it’s true that an individual’s highest earning years come later in their life, typically after age 50, the odds of your adult children and grandchildren having more money by the time they reach retirement age than you did/have is far from a given.

Today’s economy isn’t our parent’s economy. While there are many who boast about how great the economy is, it really isn’t. It’s a selective economy that rewards a few and not the majority.

Want your kids, grandkids and their kids to enjoy personal economic opportunities? Teach them to live  below their means—if that’s possible.

• Market Quick Glance

For a change, it was an up week for index returns with gains in the year-to-date as well as the 1-year returns for all of the four major indices followed here.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 9, 2018.

–DJIA 5.14% YTD way up from the previous week’s return of 2.23%.

• 1 yr Rtn 10.77% up a lot from the previous week 7.46 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 4.02% YTD way up from last week’s 1.85%

• 1 yr. Rtn 7.60% up from last week’s 5.55%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 7.29% YTD up from last week’s 6.57%

• 1yr Rtn 9.73% up a bit from last week’s 9.56%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 0.91% YTD up from last week’s 0.81%

• 1yr Rtn 5.05% a jump up from last week’s 3.44%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

The good news is: At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 3.33%. That’s up from last week’s 1.37%, according to Lipper.

So what’s up with the performances of the 25 largest equity funds around? Well, y-to-date 10 of the 25 were sporting returns within the 6% range; 7 had returns that fell into minus territory; and the only 1 had a double-digit return. That was the Investco QQ Trust 1—it’s return 12.70%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Salute A Veteran

Please take the time today to recall, re-read or re-educate yourself to what caused World War 1 and then World War 11.

Then, take a moment to think about —and salute–those in your family or circle of friends who lost their lives while serving their country and those serving today. It’s the right thing to do.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov. 3, 2018

Source: Cresset Wealth

Source: Cresset Wealth

 

• Our Economy

I know more than one investor who doesn’t believe the figures emphasizing how great our economy is, that the unemployment rate is as low as is  publicized and that all on Wall Street is hunky dory.

So in search of some easy to understand market commentary, I’ve turned to Cresset Wealth Advisors November 2018 Market Review.

Here is what Cresset’s CFA, Jack Ablin, wrote in it re the economy: “The US economy has been growing at a rate that is above potential. Its 2.5% potential GDP growth rate is derived from 0.7% labor force growth plus a 1.8% (generous) productivity rate. Current 3.5% annualized growth has been fueled by consumer demand. Government spending added 0.6% to growth, fixed investments flat-line.”

Re tariffs: “Tariff talk has had a deleterious impact on exports. This sector, which on average has added 0.5% to economic activity, dragged growth down 0.5% in Q2.”

The entire Cresset November Market Review is worth a read and available at cressetwealth.com. Check it out.

• Market Quick Glance

It was a week that brought some year-to-date returns up from underwater for the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Yahoo, for that. Whether that trend will continue, however, is still anybody’s guess.

But to cover our bases, lest we think the bull is back, here’s another look  at the following historic equity performance data from CNBC.com:

– Since World War II, the average correction for the S&P500 lasts 4 months and sees equities slide 13% before bottoming.

-Bear markets average a loss of 30.4% and last 13 months and takes stocks nearly 22 months, on average, to recover.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 2, 2018.

 

–DJIA 2.23% YTD up from the previous week’s return of -0.13%.

• 1 yr Rtn 7.46% up from the previous week 5.50 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 1.85% YTD up from last week’s -0.56%

• 1 yr. Rtn 5.55% up from last week’s 3.84%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 6.57% YTD up a lot from last week’s 3.82%

• 1yr Rtn 9.56% up a bit from last week’s 9.31%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 0.81% YTD up a lot from last week’s -3.37%

• 1yr Rtn 3.44% also up a lot from last week’s -0.91%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Equity funds have lost about half of their average year-to-date returns since October 18. And, at the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 1.37%, according to Lipper. That’s down from 2.36% reported on 10/18/18.

Where you want to have been invested most recently is in that large broad category of funds and not in funds that fall under the Sector Equity Funds heading— they are down at  -2.90% on average. Or in World Equity Funds, these babies are on average down at -9.46%.

World Income Funds have fared better, – 4.80% and Mixed Asset Funds -2.14% on average.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Got money? Maybe
  

The end of the third quarter—that would be the end of September 30— Fidelity delivered some sweet news for its investors. For instance:

• The average 401(k) balance hit a new high of $106,500, up 2.4% from Q2.
• The average individual retirement account averaged $111,000, up 3.8% from Q2.
• The number of 401(k) millionaires was up 41 percent from last year at the same time.
• And, the number of IRA millionaires was up 25 percent from last year.

Hope these account balances continue to flourish for Fidelityites.

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