Monthly Archives: July 2018

POCKETBOOK: Week ending July 14, 2018

Here

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And from the recent running of the bulls comes this: a fake bull. Kinda sorta made me wonder about our market.

 

  • Millennial Yikes!

There’s a different world coming if you’re a believer in survey results

According to a recent 2018 Retirement Preparedness Survey commissioned by PGIM Investments, 31% of millennials aren’t saving for retirement at all BECAUSE they don’t see the point in preparing for it. They responded that “anything can happen between now and then.”

Well, that’s true. But, anything– whatever is meant by it– takes money. And heaps of it–particularly during the decades spent in retirement.

Additionally, 62% of those responding said they plan on retiring when they have enough money (wonder where they expect to get it?) and 66% said that they think full-time jobs would be kaput and that 75% of the public would work as freelancers in the future. And one more thing,  that “people will no longer retire comfortably in the future.”

Oh my.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

More ups over the short term, but not so for 1-year return figures.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, July 13, 2018.

DJIA 1.21% YTD back up into positive territory re previous week’s return of –1.06%.

  • 1 yr Rtn 16.08% up from the previous week’s 14.71 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

-S&P 500 4.78% YTD up from last week’s 3.22%

  • 1 yr Rtn 14.44% down a hair from last week’s 14.53%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

-NASDAQ 13.36% YTD a jump up from last week’s 11.37%

  • 1yr Rtn 24.73% down from last week’s 26.26%

Nasdaq reached a new 52-week high on July 13, 2018 of 7,843.53. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 7,806.6.

-Russell 2000 9.87% YTD down from last week’s 10.74%

  • 1yr Rtn 18.34% down from last week’s 20.93%

The Russell 2000 reached a new 52-week high on July 10, 2018 of 1,708.56. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1.

 

-Mutual funds

A repeat.

At the close of business on Thursday, July 5, 2018, the total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had an average return of 4.35%, according to Lipper.

Nonetheless, it’s first still a small cap world as the average cumulative total return for Small-Cap Growth Funds averaged 14.34%.

The category of funds with the closest average y-t-d- return was–surprise surprise–Large Cap  Growth funds at 9.73%.

Double digit y-t-d average returns were also found under the Sector Funds heading with Science & Tech Funds, 12.04%, followed by Global Science/ Tech Funds, 11.64% and then Health/Tech Funds, 10.43%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

  • The cost of trade wars

So far, estimates are that this just beginning trade war is going to cost households about $60 more bucks a year. Another source estimates that figure to be more than double–$127 per household.

I’m guessing it’s going to be considerably more. Time will tell.

Till then, consider this from the blog of money manager Doug Kass:

“History has proven that one trade tariff begets another and another until you get a full blown trade war. And the consumer seems to always get screwed. Currency wars always lead to trade wars and vice versa and which in turn could lead to hot war. ”

Kass says that trade wars aren’t supposed to be easy.

I’ll add, not cheap either.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending July 7, 2018

 

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(Source: SeekingAlpha.com)
  • Making money in stocks? Where?

 No denying that lots of folks say that they are loving the economy believing in the super job growth and the sweet returns of the stock market. But before jumping on that  bandwagon, remember most of the praise comes from our president and those he has hired to praise him and praise all things Trump-related.

A look at the chart above, included in a recent SeekingAlpha.com article, shows how various types of stocks have fallen from their highs during the past 52 weeks.

Commentary in that same story pointed out that the telecom services sector stocks are down an average of nearly 19% from their highs and consumer discretionary stocks down 16%.

So how you doin?

 

  • Market Quick Glance

The DJIA was the only index that had a lower year-to-date return last week than it had the previous week.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, July 7, 2018.

DJIA -1.06% YTD down even more than the previous week’s return of -056%

•1 yr Rtn 14.71% down from the previous week’s 14.88%

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

-S&P 500 3.22% YTD  up from last week’s 1.67%

•1 yr Rtn 14.53% up from last week’s 12.34%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

-NASDAQ 11.37% YTD up a lot from last week’s 8.79%

  • 1yr Rtn 26.26% way up from last week’s 22.23%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW ALL-TIME HIGH on June 20, 2018 of 7,806.6. The previous highs was reached on June 14,2018 of 7,768.6.

-Russell 2000 10.74% YTD up a heap from last week’s 7.00%

  • 1yr Rtn 20.93% up a lot from last week’s 16.02%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW ALL-TIME HIGH on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1. The previous high was reached June 12, 2018 of 1,686.37.

 

-Mutual funds

Changes abound with some not exactly hot returns lately for your basic mutual fund. At the close of business on Thursday, July 5, 2018, the total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had an average return of 4.35%, according to Lipper.

Nonetheless, it’s  still a small cap world as the average cumulative total return for Small-Cap Growth Funds averaged 14.34%.

The category of funds with the closest average y-t-d- return behind it was–surprize surprize—Lare-Cap Growth funds at 9.73%.

Double digit y-t-d average returns were also found under the Sector Funds heading with Science & Tech Funds, 12.04%, followed by Global Science/ Tech Funds, 11.64% and then Health/Tech Funds, 10.43%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • More of US not working

 Numbers show that not nearly as many of us are working today as there were 10 years ago.

MyBudget360.com reported that one-third of our work force—or 95.5 million Americans– are not working today. That’s a big jump up from the 80 million not working in 2009.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending June 30, 2018

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  • Making America Great Again. Really?

Funny how a slogan can get people all jazzed up and believing things that may or may not be true. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” is one such slogan.

America from where I sit, even with its warts and all, was pretty much of a terrific nation before Donald Trump became president. Now, there are more warts.

That said, if individual voting citizens think that Trump is going to make America great again, they are fooling themselves if the greatness they are thinking of is money related.

The chart above shows how wealth gets distributed during times of economic expansions like the one we’ve been living in for a decade. As you can see, it’s not the bottom 90% of us who have gained economically, in fact we’re losing our economic strength—it’s the top 10%.

The way things  stand, there is no way an average person can accumulate enough money to live okay today and be able to save a bundle large enough to cover their 30-40 years in retirement if that gap between the top 10% and the lower 90 doesn’t change. And change dramatically in the working man’s and  working woman’s favor.

Until that happens, there can be no “great again”.

  • Market Quick Glance

Down. Down. Down. And down.

Not one of the four indices below had year-to-date or a 1-year return at the end of this week that was higher than that of the previous week.

On Thursday the week before last, a voice inside of my head was telling me to sell, sell, sell. And I didn’t, didn’t, didn’t.

Selling when your inside voice is telling you to act takes courage. Courage I didn’t happen to act upon. And it has cost me—on paper.

Deciding when to sell a stock is perhaps one of the two biggest challenges stock investors are faced with. The second is, deciding what to do with the proceeds after selling.

Look for more about this subject in an upcoming piece.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, June 29, 2018.

DJIA -0.56% YTD down more from the previous week’s return of -056%.

  • 1 yr Rtn 14.88% down from the previous week’s 14.88%

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 1.67% YTD down a lot  from last week’s 3.04%

  • 1 yr Rtn 12.34% down more from last week’s 13.16%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ 8.79% YTD down plenty from last week’s 11.44%

  • 1yr Rtn 22.23% down from last week’s 23.35%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW ALL-TIME HIGH on June 20, 2018 of 7,806.6. The previous highs was reached on June 14,2018 of 7,768.6.

 

-Russell 2000 7.00% YTD down a big chunk from last week’s 9.77%

  • 1yr Rtn 16.02% wat down from last week’s 20.01%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW ALL-TIME HIGH on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1. The previous high was reached June 12, 2018 of 1,686.37.

 

-Mutual funds

Below is a repeat of data from the week ending June 21, 2018:

The total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had an average return of 5.04% at the close of business on Thursday, June 21, 2018, according to Lipper. That’s up from the June 7, 2018 average total return of 5.11%.

Yes, it’s still a small cap world and will likely continue to be for the near future with Small-Cap Growth Funds up on average 15.66% followed by Mid-Cap Growth (10.56%) and Multi-Cap Growth Funds (10.55%).

Of the 25 largest funds, based on asset size, the two big winners were the Fidelity Contra Fund, 11.77%, and the American Funds Growth A Fund, 10.52%. Both are large-cap growth funds.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Global Investing gone South

 All the hoopla about investing overseas in 2018 has proven to not be such a hot idea.

According to CNBC, investors have taken $12.4 billion out from global stock funds in June.

That’s the most money withdrawn from global funds and ETFs since October 2008, according to TrimTabs data.

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