POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.17, 2018

                Thanksgiving at grandma’s 1976.

• Thanksgiving

If there were only one day each year I could pick to celebrate, it would be Thanksgiving.

No matter what one’s race, income level, age, gender, faith affiliation, political point of view, height, weight, married, single, with or without children or immediate family, it’s the one day when each of us can take the time to slow down, breathe deeply and think about all the things we have to be thankful for.

Whether it’s simply the fact that we are giving thanks for being alive, or celebrating our various good or bad fortunes, the value in giving thanks is as intimate and personal a gesture as mindful prayer is: Giving thanks transcends the material and enriches our souls in incalculable almost inconceivable ways.

So be thankful.  It’s a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

• Market Quick Glance

As you might expect, index returns weren’t so hot last week with both the DJIA and S&P 500 losing strength and returning to about half of what their year-to-date returns were two weeks ago.

For anyone curious about how past markets have performed during Thanksgiving week, the historic news is that typically it’s been  a good week for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.6% during the week, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Here’s a chart from them showing the data:

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018.

–DJIA 2.81% YTD down from the previous week’s return of 5.14%.

• 1 yr Rtn 8.33% from the previous week 10.77 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 2.34% YTD way up from last week’s 4.02%

• 1 yr. Rtn 6.10% down from last week’s 7.60%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 4.99% YTD way down from last week’s 7.29%

• 1yr Rtn 6.69% up a bit from last week’s 9.73%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.52% YTD back to underwater from last week’s 0.91%

• 1yr Rtn 2.73% down a lot from last week’s 5.05%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Predictions

It’s started.

Talking heads typically begin mouthing off about what their next year market predictions are right after Thanksgiving.

I’ve read a couple, so far. Some see the S&P 500 hitting 3,000. Others figure a recession is on the way. Still others say it’s gonna be a bad year for equities; a good year for fixed-income.

Personally, at this point in time, I don’t have an inkling of what’s to come in 2019.

But one thing I do know for sure—and can guarantee—it’s that tax time is right around the corner. Making sure your investment ducks are in a row and what’s been bought and sold is clearly documented.

Trump’s tax plan will no doubt disappoint  millions of individual investors and delight a few. To help plan your tax future, take a look at IRS Publication 5307, Tax Reform: Basics for individuals and Families.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Sept.8, 2018

The S&P 500 has rewarded investors for a long time. But nothing lasts forever as the chart above shows.

• So how you doin?

Forget what talking heads say about the markets, unemployment, our economy and place in the world. Talking heads are just talking heads reading scripts.

What counts in all of this is how your investments are performing. Your own personal investments be they in retirement or personal accounts.

Mine aren’t up 14% like the NASDAQ was year-to-date as of last week. Or up 7% like the S&P 500. Nope. A couple of months ago my performance was better than either of those two figures. Now, I’m underwater for the year. Rats.

If you’re in a similar reward position, perhaps it’s time to do some thinking and answering a few questions like:

-Are the loses greater than I can handle? Like over 10% for each holding?

-Can I handle a 10% or 20% or more loss on any or on my overall holdings?

-No matter the size of the loss (or gain for that matter) do I still want to own these companies?

-How long was I planning on owning each security?

-If I decide to sell any of my positions, what kinds of costs will that incur—like taxes and commissions?

-Finally, what will I do with the proceeds?

Unless you’re a robot, deciding if and/or when to sell a stock takes some serious considerations.

Happy thinking.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Year-to-date numbers have changed—and not in an upward direction.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data if according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Sept.7, 2018.

–DJIA 4.84% YTD down from previous week’s return of 5.04%.

• 1 yr Rtn 18.97% up from the previous week 18.30 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 7.41% YTD down a lot from last week’s 8.52%

• 1 yr Rtn 16.41% down from last week’s 17.39%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50. The previous closing high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 2,876.16.

 

-NASDAQ 14.47% YTD way down from last week’s 17.47%

• 1yr Rtn 23.52% down from last week’s 26.15%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 11.57% YTD way down from last week’s 13.37%

• 1yr Rtn 22.49% down from last week’s 23.87%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

And we are down.

At the close of business on Thursday, Sept. 6,2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 8.26% That’s down from the previous week’s 9.12 %, according to Lipper.

Small-Cap Growth Funds still lead the performance way while off a bit from the previous week—21.10%. The week before that figure was 21.86%.

Around the world, the average World Equity Fund return fell substantially: the average fund under this heading was down -5.14% ending last week. The week previous that figure was -2.04%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• One Opinion

From CNBC’s “Trading Nation” program, B. Riley FBR’s Arthur Hogan thinks that if the U.S. works out its trade issues these three industries could be good for investors over the next 16 months:

-Technology

-Health care

-Financials

Nothing earth shattering there.

On the other hand, Hogan expects the S&P 500 to hit 3200 by the end of 2019.

Time will tell.

 

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending August 11, 2017

•August Heat

Every day is a new day on Wall Street, Main Street and Pennsylvania Avenue. What happens from the latter, however, impact all streets across America as well as all of the lives of those residing on them. So, the heat is on.

Re the markets, while we are only half way through the month, if history is any guide the Stock Trader’s Almanac reports that August is the 10^th worst performing month for the Dow and 11^th worst for the S&P500 and NASDAQ.

On the bright side, historically there have been a few more up August months than there have been down ones: Over the last 67 years, the month has closed up 37 times and 30 down ones for the Dow and S&P.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Two new highs reached for the DJIA and S&P500 but don’t get too excited—all four indices closed with year-to-date figures —and 1-year returns— lower on Friday than they were on Friday of the previous week (8/4/17).

Something to chew on from the Bespoke Investment Group piece titled, “U.S. Equity Share Continues To Drop” published August 11, 2017: “While President Trump can claim that the stock market has done exceptionally well since he was elected, he’s actually overseen a huge loss in the US’s share of total world stock market cap. When grading a presidency, you could argue that the latter is actuall more important….”

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, Aug. 11,  2017.

 

-DJIA + 10.60% YTD down from last week’s +11.79%

• 1 yr Rtn +17.43% down considerably from last week’s 20.38%
• The DJIA reached another new all-time high on August 8, 2017 of 22,179.11

(Previous highs since March include: August 4, 2017 of 22,092.81; 21,841.18 on July 28, 2017; July 14, 2017 of 21,681.53; July 3,2017 of 21,562.75; 21,535.03 on June 20, 2017; 21,391.97 reached on June 14, 2017; 21,305.35 on June 9, 2017; 21,225.04 on June 2, 2017; and 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.)

 

-S&P 500 +9.04% YTD down from last week’s 10.63%

• 1yr Rtn +11.69% down considerably from last week’s +14.44%

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on August 8, 2017 of 2,490.87.

(Previous high of 2,484.04 was reached on July 27, 2017 and 2,477.62 was reached on July 20, 2017. Prior to that date new highs and dates include: 2,463.54 on July 14, 2017; 2453.82 on June 19,2017; 2,446.2 reached on June 9, 2017; 2,440.23 reached on June 2, 2017; 2,418.71 reached on May 25, 2017; 2,405.77 reached on May 16, 2017; 2403.87 on May 9, 2017; 2,400.98 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-NASDAQ +16.23% YTD down from last week’s +17.99%

• 1yr Rtn +19.66% down considerably from last week’s 22.94%

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 6,460.84 on July 27, 2017.

(Previous highss include: July 20, 2017 of 6,398.26; 6,341.7 on June 9, 2017; 6,308.76 on June 2; 6,217.34 reached on May 25; 6,170,16 on May 16; 6,133 on May 9, 2017; 6102.72 on May 2, 2017; 6074.04 on April 28, 2017; and 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)

 

-Russell 2000 +1.26% YTD down considerably from last week’s +4.07%

• 1yr Rtn +11.81% down a lot from last week’s +16.36%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high on July 25, 2017 of 1,452.09.

(Previous highs include: 1,452.05 on July 21, 2017; 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017; 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

Play it again, Sam: The average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds on Thursday, August 10, 2017 were again lower  just as they were at the previous week’s close (8/4/17).

At the close of business on Thursday, 8/10/17, the average YTD total return for U.S. Diversified Equity Funds closed at 7.05%. That’s down from the 8.93% average return of the week before; the 9.59% average return of the week before it; and the 9.84% return of the week before that. All according to Lipper.

Interestingly, Large-Cap Growth Funds had an average y-t-d return of +16.87 and not far behind it Equity Leverage Funds, +16.39%. Both of those fund types fall under the broad Diversifeid Equity Funds heading.

It was Global Science/Technology Funds that posted the highest average returns of +25.54%, under the Sector Equity Funds heading and Natural Resources Funds that posted the lowest, -17.53% on average.

And World Equity Funds continue to provide investors with highest average returns, +17.76%. There are 4,516 funds that fall under that heading.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Sad

According to the results of a recent three-question survey, published on CNBC.com, respondents don’t know beans about compound interest, inflation and stock market risk. Only 30% answered all three questions correctly.

Here’s the quiz and I sure do hope you’re smarter than the not-so-bright 70%:

Question 1

Suppose you have $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was two percent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?

1. More than $102
   B. Exactly $102
   C. Less than $102
   D. I don’t know

The correct answer is A. You’d have $102 after the first year. Over the next four years, interest will grow on that $102, meaning you’ll have more than $102. It’s a phenomenon known as compound interest.

Question 2

Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was one percent per year and inflation was two percent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?

1. More than today
   B. Exactly the same as today
   C. Less than today
   D. I don’t know

The correct answer is C: less than today.

Question 3

Do you think the following statement is true or false: Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.

The answer is false.

(Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/most-americans-cant-answer-these-basic-money-questions.html)

 

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POCKETBOOK:Week ending Sept.24,2016

•October:Scary or not so much?

With September nearly over and the month that celebrates All Hallows Eve right around the corner, investors could be in for a treat.

As fate would have it, well really history, ever since 1987 the S&P500 Index has averaged a 1.8% gain during the month of October, according to Dan Wiener, editor of Fund Focus Weekly.

That’s not so bad considering there isn’t a financial commentator around who can’t help telling the investing public that the month of October has historically been fraught with market downturns. It is, after all, the month the DJIA fell 22.6% on a day now remembered as Black Monday.

But look back and  count and Wiener writes that over the past 28 October’s, 19 of them—68%–have rewarded investors with positive results.

Boo!

• Market Quick Glance

Lookie here: At the close of business on Friday, Sept 23, 2016, all four indices had better performance records than the week before with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq’s year-to-date weekly returns gaining the most. And, the 1-yr  year-to-date return for the Russell 2000 moved from a positive 6.9% up to 13.45%.

Below, according to Bloomberg, are last week’s closing YTD performance numbers of four popular US indices along with 1-year performance figures.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +6.94% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +14.96%

-S&P 500 +7.63% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +14.57%

–NASDAQ +7.01% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +14.76%

–Russell 2000 +11.64% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +13.45%

 

-Mutual funds

Year-to-date average returns for U.S. Diversified Equity funds gained a bit over the past week as, at the close of business on Thursday, September 22, 2016, their average YTD return was 6.79%, according to Lipper. That’s a gain of more than 175 basis points from the previous week’s figures.

Under the heading of  U.S. Diversified Equity Funds, Equity Leverage Funds had a YTD performance average of +25.27%. Dedicated Short Bias Funds, on the other hand, had an average YTD average return of -23.26%.

Precious Metals Equity Funds, Lipper tracks 73 of them, were now up on average over 100% YTD at 107.93%.

World Equity Funds continued to gain strength providing their shareholders with an average return of 7.74%. Latin American Funds also continued their move upward with average YTD returns of 35.19%.

Make sure to take advantage of the wonderful world of mutual fund performance figures that Lipper publishes weekly. Use their YTD returns as a guideline for how your individual fund(s) are performing. For instance, Lipper reports the average stock fund is up about 6.79 percent so far this year. Are your stock funds doing better or worse than that?

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for weekly updates to see how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

Lipper’s weekly performance figures for stock and fixed-income funds are at www.allaboutfunds.com in the left column on the home page.

• Listen up market worriers: Elections don’t matter much

According to Ric Edelman, former CEO of Edelman Financial Services, worrying about whether Clinton or Trump makes it into the White House isn’t likely to wreck your investment portfolio unless…..

““History is very clear on this point,” Edelman said in an interview with ETF.com. “Going back to 1948, the impact of every president on the financial markets is very clear. Presidents do not adversely affect the markets.”

The “unless” is if we are in a recession. Or, you won’t need your money for four to eight years. That’s the longest a president can remain in office.

Investors during the Nixon and Bush years, realized the pain that recessions can impose upon one’s investment portfolio.

Guess that means that going forward the big question all investors are faced with is: Is there a recession in our future? And if you think so, the next question is: Can you personally afford any market losses?

And so— without a clear cut answer in site—it goes…..

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