Tag Archives: Trump

POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 10, 2019

IMG_7077

And you thought everyone had a cellphone and computer.

  • The high cost of tariffs

Don’t be fooled by President Trump’s game of twiddlywinks he continues to play with our lives, our money and China over tariffs.

Most recently, he is playing a game to win you over in a couple of different ways: First, and most importantly, by playing with your pocketbook. Trump’s increased tariffs on the Chinese goods we import actually costs each and every one of us who purchases products made in China more.  Second, he’s flexing his muscle in a war that nobody wins.

So even if the president was able to come to some kind of agreement that winds up returning monies to the U.S., that headline might make news for a while but it’s the kind of news that doesn’t count—unless paying more is the counting you’re counting.

Since Trump’s increased tariffs imposed on China last week, China has retaliated by slapping billions in tariffs on the kinds of products American’s are fond of using. Such as coffee, beef, salmon, flowers,some fruits and veggies, according to USA TODAY.

As you’ve no doubt heard before and will no doubt continue to hear: No one wins a tariff war.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

And the worm has turned as all indices followed here were lower at their close on Friday than they were on Friday of the previous week. For how long the market dives is anyone’s guess.

BOTTOM LINES: Trump’s tariffs are costing everybody from the bottom line on corporate earnings, the bottom line on the major indices, and the bottom line in your personal and/or retirement accounts.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 10, 2019.

DJIA 11.21% YTD down a heap from the previous week’s 13.62%.

  • 1 yr. Rtn 4.86% way down from the previous week 9.13%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   14.95% YTD down a heap from the previous week’s 17.50%

  • 1 yr. Rtn 5.81% way down from the previous week’s 12.01%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 19.32% YTD down a heap from last week’s 23.04%.

  • 1yr Rtn 6.91% way down from last week’s 15.18%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Dipping down.

At the close of business on Thursday, May 9, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.11%, according to Lipper. That’s down from the previous week’s close of 16.50%.

Here’s a look at how the average fund type under various equity fund headings have performed year-to-date through May 9, 2019 and compared to their 1st quarter returns:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds, 15.11% (still above 1st quarter return of 13.27%).

-Sector Equity Funds, 12.44 (still above 1st quarter average return of12.98%.)

-World Equity Funds, 10.77% (below their 1st quarter average return of 11.29%.)

-Mixed Asset Funds, 8.86% (lower than 1st quarter average return of 8.21%).

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds, 4.14% ( higher than 1st quarter average return of 3.56%.

-World Income Funds, 4.03% (higher than 1st quarter average return of 3.77%.)

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

-30-

 

 

  • Sell in May?

For fans of a six-month investment strategy there is none better than the Sell in May and Go Away one. This technique, according to CNBC.com, involves investing in the DJIA between Nov. 1 and April 30 then switching to fixed income for the other six months of the year has proved profitable over the long haul for some.

One example, also from that same source, pointed out the following: Put $10,000 into the S&P500 between May 1 and Oct. 31, 1950 to the present, (I’m assuming that means April 30 as the story was published on May 1), and you’d have been a loser: Your 10g’s would have dwindled to $4,138. That’s a loss of $5,862. PU.

On the other hand, had you followed the Sell in May and go away formula and put $10,000 into the S&P500 from Nov.1 through April 20, you’d have enjoyed a gain of—-hold on to your hat— $2,836,350.

Another example from that same source: Plunk $10,000 on May 1 in 1950 into the DJIA, keep it there until October 31, and the years would have rewarded you with about $1,000.

But do the buy Nov. 1 and sell on April 30 beginning in 1950 and ending in April of this year and you’d have a return of over $1 million smackeroos.

Sounds tempting, doesn’t it.

But like all tempting things, this strategy comes with no guarantees of making any money over the long term. And, with our current Trump economy– that even the wisest of talking heads can’t figure out– the risk-reward ratio of putting that Sell in May play into motion is greater than ever.

Player beware.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Both the S&P and NASDAQ moved ahead last week—not so for the Dow.

But can these highs keep on going? That’s not likely if President Trump’s tariff threats re China are imposed. Tariff wars are not good for any country or their respective stock markets.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 3, 2019.

DJIA 13.62% YTD down a hair from the previous week’s 13.79%.

  • 1 yr. Rtn 9.13% up from the previous week 9.13%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   17.50% YTD up a bit from the previous week’s 17.27%

  • 1 yr. Rtn 12.01% up from the previous week’s 10.23%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 23.04% YTD up from last week’s 22.77%.

  • 1yr Rtn 15.18% up from last week’s 14.44%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Keeping investors smiling.

And it was another week when year-to-date returns for equity funds proved positive for fund shareholders. At the close of business on Thursday, May 2, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 16.50%, according to Lipper. That’s down a hair from the previous week’s close of 16.54%.

Looking at how equity funds performed during the first quarter of 2019 shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds 1st quarter average return: 13.27%.

-Sector Equity Funds 1st quarter average return: 12.98%.

-World Equity Funds 1st quarter average return: 11.29%.

-Mixed Asset Funds 1st quarter average return: 8,21%.

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds 1st quarter average return: 3.56%.

-World Income Funds 1st quarter average return: 3.77%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

-30-

 

Advertisements

POCKETBOOK Week Ending Feb.10, 2019

FullSizeRender(81)

•Tax Cuts.

If you’re expecting a big fat refund check from the IRS this year, don’t hold your breath. Turns out Trump’s big fat tax cuts haven’t turned out to reward  tax payers as generaosly as they have the wealthy and large corporations. But that comes as no surprise if you’ve been a follower of this site.

Basically, tax cuts work best when taxes are high—which makes sense. And the highest max tax rate has been high for corporations, sort of:That said, corporations have always had more ways to reduce their tax bills and reduce the tax rate paid thanks to a number of write-off’s companies can take vs. the puny few available to individuals.

Additionally, all the poppycock the Trump administration spewed about how his 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act would put more money into people’s pockets, bring about more jobs and pump up salaries along the way, really hasn’t happened.

Sadly, cutting the corporate tax rates wound up rewarding those very same corporations more than they have individuals. One of the results has been smaller refund checks for individuals as the average tax refund check is down 8 percent this year over last translating into about $170 less, according to the IRS.

To put your best tax foot forward, do yourself a favor and take another look at the number of dependents claimed on your withholding. Changing it could mean less in your take home paychecks but maybe possibly could be more in the size of next year’s refund check.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Positive strides upward on year-to-date returns for the three indices below and big jumps up on 1-year returns.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Feb.8, 2019.

DJIA 7.63% YTD up a hair from previous week’s 7.44%.

  • 1 yr. Rtn 5.22% huge jump from the previous week -4.29%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   8.02 % YTD up from last week’s 7.97%

  • 1 yr. Rtn 4.92% hugely improved from last week’s -4.09%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 9.99% YTD up a bit from last week’s 9.47%

  • 1yr Rtn 7.69% huge jump up from last week’s -1.65%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

 

-Mutual funds

Repeat from early January:

Looking up.

At the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019, the total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 4.70%, according to Lipper.

Looking at the fund types with the highest year-to-date gains under the various headings shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds average, 4.70%; highest Equity Leveraged Funds, 11.08%; lowest, Dedicated Short Bias Funds, -8.88%

-Sector Equity Funds average 4.88%; highest Energy MLP Funds, 11.74%; lowest Alternative Managed Funds, -2.20%

-World Equity Funds average 4.07%; highest Latin American Funds, 9.01%; lowest India Region Funds, -1.23%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have come a long way over the past 20-some years. Not only have the number of them swelled right along with assets invested in them, advisors are using and suggesting them big time.

Cerulli Associates reports that 14.1% of financial advisors’ clients were allocated to ETFs at the end of 2018 compared with 5.4% in 2009.

With money pouring out of mutual funds the growing trend for ETFs shows no sign of stopping this year.

But buyer beware, ETFs do have their pluses but they also aren’t the appropriate vehicle for everyone. Make sure to do your homework and research what’s in an ETFs portfolio before investing.

 

-30-

TrumpBits #26: Mar-a-Lago’s loss

FullSizeRender(30)

 

Oh dear. Mar-a-Lago, once the premier Palm Beach hot spot to hold charity balls where millions upon millions have been raised to help out the less fortunate, has lost some of its luster during the 2017-2018 season.

As fundraisers ditched the joint during this past season due to any number of reasons traced back to President Trump’s less than presidential behavior, the unthinkable happened: The club lost 12 million smackeroos, according to data from the federally required annual financial disclosure form released by the Office of Government Ethics today, May 16, 2018.

Even with last year’s doubling in annual membership fees from 100 grand to 200 grand, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club brought in only $25,000,000. That’s down from the previous year’s reported figure of $37 million.

But before you tear-up and weep for this he-who-speaks-with-forked-tongue master, and, whose presidential style stands as a perfect example of “be best” bullying, his DC hotel doubled its revenues from $20 to 40 million.

(Divesting from his businesses prior to his inauguration clearly never happened.)

The good news in all of this for Trump is that his fans have short memories.

I expect the upcoming Mar-a-Lago season to be more profitable than this past one. That is, unless the stock market tanks.

 

-30-

pbTrumpBits#5

FullSizeRender(21)
Gotta be one of the best aerial shots of PB property ever. But these lots aren’t just idle pieces of beachfront that have been sitting vacant for years. No. No. No. Once upon a time this land housed one sprawling mega-mansion that belonged  Abe Gosman,  then it was  bought by  Donald Trump, who sold it to  Dmitry Rybolovlev  and now it could be yours.

Fabulous photo. Fantastic opportunity —for a privileged few.

Need a grounded connection between Trump and the Russians? Okay, the links have not been totally proven but the stories swirling make for interesting reading, if nothing else.

But forget the reading and rumors, there aren’t many chances left in America for anyone to own some breathtakingly beautiful beachfront property in the one-and-only town of Palm Beach. And that’s no fertilizer bull.

Lawrence A. Moens Associates, Inc.  is the fortunate Palm Beach licensed real estate firm  with the exclusive listing. In a recent full-page ad about the listing it was described it as follows: “There is no greater opportunity on the eastern seaboard on the Continental United States”.  The Moens ad makes a good point; the property is indeed  a rare find.

With that said, each lot is currently priced under 40 million dollars. Yes, that’s 40 with six zeros after it.

Some might consider that a deal—or the art of a deal. Others, maybe not.   Trump bought the property from bankrupt  Grosman  for $41.35 million in 2004 then sold it to Dmitry for $95 million in 2008. Now with Dmitry divorced–not even sure he ever lived in it but know Trump didn’t — the house has been demolished and the property divided into three lots. The first of which sold a few months ago for $34.34 million.

You do the math.

(Source: I took this picture and to see the full-page ad, see page B8  of the Palm Beach Daily News, March 10, 2017.)

POCKETBOOK: Week ending Jan.28, 2017

  • 7be6974a-a70c-449c-b75f-92ef077bf8a2 Markets hate uncertainty

Funny thing about the stock market: On the one hand it looks ahead, on the other it doesn’t like uncertainty. Or, social unrest and there is plenty of that going on.

So, with a new President in town, and one who takes bold actions and is hard to figure, investors would be wise to expect a fair amount of market volatility going forward. Also, that life is going to be more expensive on a number of fronts for individuals and the country.

Re the country, expect more debt.

Even though the GOP is no fan of debt, President Trump has been called the King of Debt. Which is okay when your kingdom is a privately held corporation. But not so okay when you are a public servant.

  • Market Quick Glance

It was a week of ups and downs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing over 20,000. How long the DJIA stays at the level—and continues upward– is anybody’s guess.

Below are the weekly and 1-year performance results for four popular stock indices based on the close of business prices at the close of business on Friday, Jan. 27, according to Bloomberg.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones + 1.78% YTD up from last week’s 0.43%

  • 1yr Rtn +25.32% down from last week’s 26.53%

P/E Ratio 18.55 down from last week’s 18.66

 

-S&P 500 +2.60% YTD up from last week’s 1.55% YTD

  • 1yr Rtn +20.86% down from last week’s 21.73%

P/E Ratio 21.28 down a tad from last week’s 21.22

 

-NASDAQ +5.20% YTD up from last week’s 3.23%

  • 1yr Rtn +24.36% up from last week’s 22.65%

P/E Ratio 34.91 up from last week’s 34.39

 

–Russell 2000 +1.05% way up from last week’s -0.35%

  • 1yr Rtn +34.36% down a bit from last week’s 34.44%

P/E Ratio 48.27 up from last week’s 49.19

 

-Mutual funds

The average U.S. Diversified Equity Fund ended the week up with a year-to-date return of 2.61% at the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, according to Lipper.

Under that broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading, it was Dedicated Short Bias Funds that lost the most, down on average 5.58%.They were followed by Alternative Equity Market Neutral funds, down 0.08%.

On the plus side, Equity Leverage Funds were up 7.52% nearly double the previous week return of 3.59%. Next in performance were Large-Cap Growth Funds up 4.81% followed by Multi-Cap Growth Funds, up 4.60%.

The average Sector Fund was up 2.73% up from 1.43%; World Equity Fund up 4.47% from 2.55%; and Mixed Asset Funds doubled their average return in a week to close at 2.10% from last Thursday’s close of 1%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

  • Actions have consequences

If there is one thing that President Trump’s slew of executive orders signed during his first full week in office has shown everyone,  it is that actions have consequences. They always have. They always will. Unfortunately the consequences part of that equation never really shows its head until after an action has taken place.

Take the executive order signed on Friday to stop travelers from seven countries coming to America. BTW, none of those countries were places that Trump has business relationships.

Clearly that action had political, emotional and economic consequences felt around the globe. I’m not sure if the administration had anticipated any of those consequences but am certain travelers and the general public did not.

Or the order signed to build a wall along the U.S. and Mexican border. One of its many consequences will be its cost.

One of the curious things about executive orders—other than their extraordinary power– is that when you really begin to think about them as actions, the first question a reasoning person has to ask themselves is “Why was it put in place?” and the second, “What purpose will it/they actually serve?”

Word is President Trump has a bunch of executive orders he is prepared to present and sign. As for what the consequences of each of those actions will be, the answer is: We shall see.

-30-