Tag Archives: The Bespoke Investment Group

POCKETBOOK: Week ending June 30, 2017

Money

  • 4th of July and the S&P 500.

It’s a holiday week with the markets enjoying limited hours and closed all day on Tuesday for Independence Day.

For those curious about how the S&P 500 has performed since 1990 during previous 4th of July weeks, the fine folks at The Bespoke Group have done some looking back to inform us.

Although Bespoke’s data shows returns for every week day of the year since 1990, I’m showing only the returns in the years in which the 4th fell on a Tuesday. Previous to this one, there are three of them.

The 4th’s weekly returns were based on closing prices on the Friday before the week of the 4th and ending at the end of the holiday week are as follows. Below are the 4th falling on Tuesday figures:

-In 1995, the return for the first half of the year for the S&P 500 was up 18.61%. And, at the end of the week in which the 4th fell, it was up 2.13%.

-In 2000, the S&P 500 was down 1% at the end of the first half of the year. The return for the July 4th week was up 1.67%.

-In 2006, the first half return was up 1.76%. At the end of the July 4th week the S&P was down 0.37%.

-This year, 2017, the S&P 500 was up 8.27% at mid-year.

How it ends the 4th of July week is anybody’s guess.

  

  • Market Quick Glance

The only index that experienced a plus week from their previous week’s close was the Russell 2000. The other three saw year-to-date returns slide with NASDAQ’s falling the most. Nontheless, for many index investors, 2017 has been a rewarding year.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, June 30, 2017.

-DJIA + 8.03% YTD down from last week’s +8.26%

  • 1 yr Rtn +19.07% up from last week’s 18.79%

The DJIA reached a new all-time high of 21,535.03 on June 20, 2017. (Previous high of 21,391.97 reached on June 14, 2017; before it 21,305.35 on June 9, 2017; 21,225.04 on June 2, 2017; and 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.)

 

-S&P 500 +8.24% YTD down a hair from last week’s 8.91%

  • 1yr Rtn +15.46% up a chuck from last week’s +15.38%

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 2,453.82 on June 19,2017. (Previous high of 2,446.2 was reached on June 9, 2017. Before that 2,440.23 was reached on June 2, 2017; 2,418.71 reached on May 25, 2017; 2,405.77 reached on May 16, 2017; 2403.87 on May 9, 2017; 2,400.98 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-NASDAQ +14.07% YTD down from last week’s +16.39%

  • 1yr Rtn +26.80% down from last week’s 27.60%

The Nasdaq reached its most recent new all-time high of 6,341.7 on June 9, 2017. (Previous highs include: 6,308.76 on June 2; 6,217.34 reached on May 25; 6,170,16 on May 16; 6,133 on May 9, 2017; 6102.72 on May 2, 2017; 6074.04 on April 28, 2017; and 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)

 

-Russell 2000 +4.29% YTD up a hair from last week’s +4.25%

  • 1yr Rtn +22.87% up from last week’s +20.69%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high of 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017. (Previous highs include 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)

-Mutual funds

Only a bit of a change in the average total return for funds that fall under the broad heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund. At the close of business on Thursday, June 29, 2017 the average equity fund’s year-to-date return was 7.52%. The previous week’s figure was 7.57%.

It’s still a Big World world for attractive returns. Year-to-date the average return for the 4,524 funds under World Equity Funds heading was the same last week as it was the previous at 15.28%.

The average Sector Equity Fund, a heading of 28 different fund types and includes everything from Health/Biotech, to Precious Metals and Commodies Energy had a year-to-date total return of 4.47%.

Mixed Asset Funds had an average return of 6.54%; Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds, 2.56%; and World Income Funds, 6.04%

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Investor sentiments waning?

Every week AAII reports the results of their sentiment survey.

During the week ending June 30,2017 results showed the bulls weren’t quite as popular as they once were as optimism about the markets fell from 32.65% down to 29.71%.

According to a Bespoke report, “That now makes it a record 130 straight week where half of the investors surveyed were not bullish.”

But wait. There’s more.

Even though the optimists are losing ground, so are the pessimists as bearish sentiment also fell. It went from 28.91% to 26.86% during that same time period.

Go figure.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending May 5, 2017

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  • Great advice

Last week CNBC.com ran a great story with a lot of sound advice in it titled, “5 of the smartest ways to invest your money, according to millionaires and billionaires”, written by Kathleen Elkins.

As you will learn from the piece, there is more to making money than making money. In a nutshell, here are the five points from that story many of us would be wise to learn from:

-Warren Buffet, who we learned this past weekend is not afraid or ashamed to admit he has made investing mistakes: Invest in companies you know.

-Barbara Corcoran, “Shark Tank” star and founder of the mega-successful real estate group that bears her name: Invest in your wardrobe.

-David Bach, a self-made millionaire and personal finance expert: Invest in a home.

-Grant Cardone, also a self-made millionaire: Invest in yourself.

-And from New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick comes this: Invest in your relationships.

The entire story can be found at:  http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/smart-ways-to-invest-your-money-from-millionaires-and-billionaires.html.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Gains in three of the four indices followed below. Plus, one index reached a new high while one lost ground last week from the previous one.

It was NASDAQ that scored a new high last week on May 2, the second new high so far this year. And it was the Russell 2000 that slipped over the week.

That said, the bulls were still running wild on Wall Street. When will they fall continues to be anybody’s guess.

Below are the weekly and 52-week performance results— including the dates each has reached its high according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, May 5, 2017.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +6.30 YTD up from last week’s 5.96%

  • 1yr Rtn +18.957% up from last week’s 17.44%

The DJIA reached an all-time high of 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.

 

-S&P 500 +7.17% YTD up from last week’s 6.45%

  • 1yr Rtn +17.00% up from last week’s +14.86%

The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 2,400.98 on March 1, 2017.

 

-NASDAQ +13.33% YTD up from last week’s +12.34%

  • 1yr Rtn +29.33% up from last week’s 25.85%

The Nasdaq reached a second new all-time high so far this year of 6,102.72 on May 2, 2017. (Previous new all-time high of 6074.04 was achieved on April 28, 2017 and before that date the high of 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)

 

–Russell 2000 +2.94% YTD down from last week’s +3.19%

  • 1yr Rtn +26.09% up from last week’s +22.80%

The Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high of 1,425.7 on April 26, 2017.

(Its previous high of 1,414,82 was reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

Results for the week ending Thursday, May 4, 2017 are not available.

Below is a repeat of last week’s numbers:

At the close of business on Thursday, April 20 ,2017, the average total return for U.S. Diversified Equity Funds was 4.64% that’s up considerably from last week’s 2.98% return, according to Lipper.

Just as World Equity Funds continue to reward equity investors, up 8.86% on average, fixed-income investors in bond funds investing around the globe has been reward too.

So, if you’re a fixed-income fan, the best year-to-date returns are in the World Income Funds arena. Lipper tracks 808 of them in five different categories.

In order of performance, year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performace for World Income Funds, as of 4/20/17, was as follows:

-Emerging Markets LC Debt Funds, +7.34%;

-Emerging Markets HC Debt Funds +5.31%;

-International Income Funds, +3.64%;

– Alt Currency Strategies, up 3.04%;

– and Global Income Funds, +2.75%.

As a comparison, the average return for the 2,511 funds under the General Domestic Taxable Fixed-Income Funds heading was 2.14%

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• ETF scores

The Bespoke Investment Group published its listing of ETF performance results on May 6, 2017.

Below are a few examples of where money has been made—and lost—in the ETF universe so far this year:

-Three of the highest returning US Equity ETFs so far this year include:

-QQQ, NASDAQ 100 up 16.24%

-IWB, Russell 1000, up 7.30%

-SPY, S&P500, up 7.28%

 

-Three Global Equity ETFs winners include:

-EWP, Spain, up 22.34%

-PIN, India, up 21.17%

-EWH, Hong Kong, up 18.17%

 

RXS, the Russia ETF, was the only downer in that global group. It was down 1.98%.

 

-And three ETFs where money has not been made in 2017 include:

-UNG, Natural Gas, down 21.20%

-USO. Oil, down 16.36%

-XLE, Energy, down 10.10%

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending April 28, 2017

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  • It’s May

 Fans of the Wall Street adage, “ Sell in May and go away”, know the strategy has some merit  and historically has paid off. On paper anyway.

Folks at the Bespoke Investment Group did their research and found that  $100 invested for 50 years in the S&P 500 and owning stocks from May through October would have returned a puny $139. But investing 100 bucks and owning stocks for 50 years from November through April would have paid off to the tune of $2,136.

Huh.

  • Market Quick Glance

A big week for a couple of indices: Both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 reached new highs during the week ending Friday, April 28, 2017. Yippy skippy for them. The DJIA and S&P 500 preformed well too, just no new highs.

Below are the weekly and 52-week performance results— including the dates each has reached its high according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, April 28, 2017.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +5.96% YTD up attractively from last week’s 3.97%

  • 1yr Rtn +17.447% up from last week’s 14.27%

The DJIA reached an all-time high of 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.

 

-S&P 500 +6.45% YTD up from last week’s 4.91%

  • 1yr Rtn +14.86% up from last week’s +12.30%

The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 2,400.98 on March 1, 2017.

 

-NASDAQ +12.34% YTD up handsomely from last week’s +9.80%

  • 1yr Rtn +25.85% up from last week’s 19.50%

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 6074.04 on April 28, 2017.

(Its previous high of 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)

 

–Russell 2000 +3.19% YTD up from last week’s +1.67%

  • 1yr Rtn +22.80% up from last week’s +21.49%

The Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high of 1,425.7 on April 26, 2017.

(Its previous high of 1,414,82 was reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

Moving ahead.

At the close of business on Thursday, April 27 ,2017, the average total return for U.S. Diversified Equity Funds was 6.40%. That’s a nice jump up from last week’s 4.64%, according to Lipper.

Four fund types with the highest average returns under that broad heading and through that date were Equity Leverage Funds, 13.69%, Large-Cap Growth Funds, 12.14%, Multi-Cap Growth Funds, 11.42% and Mid-Cap Growth Funds, 10.05%

Under the Sector Equity heading where the average fund is up 4.07%, Global Science Funds were the biggest winners with average y-t-d returns of 17.98%. Commodities Energy Funds the biggest losers, down 13.68%.

And around the world it’s India where the money is being made. Lipper tracks 24 India Region Funds. Average y-t-d return for the group was 25.13%

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

• Lookout

A few things to consider going forward:

  1. Last week I wrote that expecting less from the stock market might wind up being more so I’m with Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, who recently warned investors to plan for and expect lower returns going forward. “These are hazardous time. There are not cheap times. In the market, one never knows what is coming next,” said Bogle in a CNBC interview.
  2. Covering the costs of a tax reform plan that is based on the relative short-term future growth of our country is as goofy as thinking that the Earth is flat. Economic growth is not a sure thing in the near- or short-term. Outlooks, hopes and promises saying so are poppycock.
  3. Never invested in stocks before? Don’t start now unless you are absolutely positively sure that you don’t/won’t need the money anytime soon. Like in  the next three, five, 10 or 15 months or even a few years out. Investing over the short-term always comes with accepting much more risk than does investing for the long-term, like 10, 20, 30, or 50 years.

 

 

 

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