POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 3, 2019

• Sell in May?

For fans of a six-month investment strategy there is none quite like the Sell in May and Go Away one. This technique, according to CNBC.com, involves investing in the DJIA between Nov. 1 and April 30 and then switching to fixed income for the other six months of the year. For some it has has proved profitable over the long haul.

One example, also from that same source, pointed out the following: Put $10,000 into the S&P500 between May 1 and Oct. 31, 1950 to the present, (I’m assuming that means April 30 as the story was published on May 1),  you’d have been a loser: Your 10g’s would have dwindled to $4,138. That’s a loss of $5,862. PU.

On the other hand, had you followed the Sell in May and Go Away formula and put $10,000 into the S&P500 from Nov.1 through April 20, you’d have enjoyed a gain of—-hold on to your hat— of $2,836,350. (The “April 20” date is the one used in the CNBC.com story.)

Another example from that same source: Plunk $10,000 on May 1 in 1950 into the DJIA, keep it there until October 31, and the years would have rewarded you with about $1,000. Yikes. Buying on May 1 doesn’t look so smart.

But do the buy Nov. 1 and sell on April 30 beginning in 1950 and ending in April of this year and you’d have a return of over $1 million smackeroos.

Sounds tempting, doesn’t it.

But like all tempting things, this strategy comes with no guarantees of making any money over the long- or short-term. And, with our current Trump economy– that even the wisest of talking heads can’t figure out– the risk-reward ratio of putting that Sell in May play into motion is greater than ever.

Player beware.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Both the S&P and NASDAQ moved ahead last week—not so for the Dow.

But can these highs keep on going? That’s not likely if President Trump’s tariff threats re China are imposed. Tariff wars are not good for any country or their respective stock markets.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 3, 2019.

–DJIA 13.62% YTD down a hair from the previous week’s 13.79%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 9.13% up from the previous week 9.13%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   17.50% YTD up a bit from the previous week’s 17.27%

• 1 yr. Rtn 12.01% up from the previous week’s 10.23%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 23.04% YTD up from last week’s 22.77%.

• 1yr Rtn 15.18% up from last week’s 14.44%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Keeping investors smiling.

And it was another week when year-to-date returns for equity funds proved positive for fund shareholders. At the close of business on Thursday, May 2, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 16.50%, according to Lipper. That’s down a hair from the previous week’s close of 16.54%.

Looking at how equity funds performed during the first quarter of 2019 shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 13.27%.

-Sector Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 12.98%.

-World Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 11.29%.

-Mixed Asset Funds 1^st quarter average return: 8,21%.

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.56%.

-World Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.77%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending April 19, 2019

• 

• It’s Earth Day

You don’t have to be a tree hugger to acknowledge and respect this incredible planet that we all inhabit. And, you don’t have to be a Rhode Scholar to know that each of us human beings have a roll to play in the management and maintanence of this grand globe we call home.

Knowing that, make sure to take some time today to go outside, take the phone away from your ears, the earbuds out and look around. Then, wherever you’re standing, be still for a minute and tune in to notice that you’ve got air to breathe, look up at the sky above, feel the earth below and be very much aware of the fact that in that moment of your personal time, all is well.

If that doesn’t move you to celebrate our magnificent planet Earth, see a shrink.

 

• Earnings Season

Hey everybody, it’s earnings season. Once again. And this week will be a hugely busy one as 140 of the S&P500 companies are scheduled to report their earnings—or lack of them—to the public and their shareholders.

If you’re a newbee investor, here’s a question: How often does earnings season roll around: A) Once a year; B) 2 times a year; C) 4 times a year; or D) 6 times a year; or E) every other year?

The correct answer is C, 4 times a year. Or quarterly. Each season typically begins a week or two after the last month of each quarter.

How a company’s earnings impacts your holdings can provide some insight into how well your investment pick is doing. Then again, unless you’re an active day trader, a quarterly earnings report might not amount to much of a hill of beans if you’re a long term investor in a well financed, well-managed and well established company.

But ain’t that always the case.

 

• Market Quick Glance

The stock market was closed on Friday, but Thursday’s closing numbers continued to reflect a performance many investors are pleased with as it’s still a double-digit year-to-date return world for the three indices followed here.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, April 18, 2019.

–DJIA 13.86% YTD up from the previous week’s 13.22%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 7.68% down from the previous week 7.88%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   15.88% YTD up from the previous week’s 15.39%

• 1 yr. Rtn 7.87% down from the previous week’s 8.633%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 20.54% YTD up a bit from last week’s 20.33%%

• 1yr Rtn 10.50% down and worth noticing from last week’s 11.82%.

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

At the close of business on Thursday, April 18, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.86%, according to Lipper. That’s up a hair from the previous week’s close of 15.73%.

Of the 20 different types of funds that fall under that broad U.S. Diversified Equitiy Fund heading, only two types had year-to-date performance figures under 10%. They were Specialaity Diversified Equtdy Funds, (there are 31 of them) had an average return of 7.96%. And, Alternative Long/Short Equity Funds of which there are 350 funds sporting an average year-to-date return of 7.36%.

Continuing its under water performance given current market conditions, the average total return of the 165 different funds that make up the Dedicated Short Bias Funds category was -21.26%.

One more kinda stinker—Alternative Equity Market Neutral Funds (there are 96 funds in this group) are underwater too with an average return of 1.71%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Oct. 13, 2017

•The Donald’s Pinocchio nose

If our current president had a Pinocchio nose, well, I can hardly imagine how extended it would by now be given his record of telling the truth while President of the United States. Day-to-day tweets and truth-telling during his time in office haven’t gone hand in hand.

Take for instance, this example from Trump tweet dated Oct. 16, 2017: “Since Election Day on November 8, the Stock Market is up more than 25%, unemployment is at a 17 year low & companies are coming back to U.S.”

Looking only at stocks, aaccording to MarketWatch.com, if one defines “the Stock Market” as the DJIA, the president is accurate. But if the market he’s speaking of is the S&P 500, he’s off. It hasn’t gained that much. FactSet reports that index up 22%.

That little half truth will extend his Pinocchio nose a little bit more.

But let’s go back to that DJIA. Some stocks in it have performed incredibly well since his inauguration. But not all. The top three total return performers from Nov.8 through Oct.13 were Boeing(BA) up 88%, Caterpillar (CAT) up 58% and McDonald’s (MCD) up 43%, according to FactSet.

The three worst total return performers over that same time period  were: General Electric, (GE) down 19%, International Business Machines (IBM) down 2 % and Exxon Mobil (EX) down 1 %.

Forgetting stocks, a bigger not-telling-the-truth story from Trump is his one about tax cuts. Lots of fudging in what’s being said there including the fact that salaries will increase by thousands of dollars each year for worker bees. Hog wash.

And so is the need for tax cuts in the first place. One simple reality: Think for a moment of all the expenses and costs that are being racked up because of the hurricanes, storms, fires, etc. that have happened over the past few weeks. Where is all of the billions of dollars going to come from to cover those costs? Not tax cuts.

The Republicans say that we need tax reform for one reason and one reason only: For the Republican Party to be able to say they have accomplished something.

Your average American needs tax reform about as much as they need to see the president’s  Pinocchio nose grow another inch.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Truly remarkable. As of last Wednesday, the DJIA had enjoyed 53 record high closes this year, according to CNBC. The S&P 500, 62 times. And then Friday rolled around and both indices closer higher again.

Is there no ending to this bull run? Yes and no. Yes, bulls always trip and markets always turn. No, no precise way of knowing when or what triggers the fall.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, October 20, 2017.

-DJIA +18.04% YTD up significantly from last week’s 15.73%.

• 1 yr Rtn +28.44% up from last week’s 26.37%

And another new all-time high for the DJIA. This one of 23,328.84 was reached on October 20, 2017.

The previous high of 22,905.33 was reached on October 13, 2017.

On March 1, the Dow stood at 21,169.11.

 

-S&P 500 +15.02% YTD up from last week’s 14.04%.

• 1yr Rtn +20.26% up from last week’s +19.72%

The S&P 500 reached its latest new high of 2,575.33 on October 20, 2017.

Its previous high of 2,556,65 was reached on week earlier on October 13, 2017.

On March 1, 2017, that index stood at 2,400.98.

 

-NASDAQ +23.15% YTD up from last week’s +22.71%.

• 1yr Rtn +26.46% down from last week’s 26.71%

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 6,640.03 on October 20, 2017.

Its previous high of 6,,616.58 was reached on October 13, 2017.

On April 5, 2017 the index closed at 5,936.39.

 

-Russell 2000 +11.21% YTD up from last week’s +10.72%.

• 1yr Rtn +23.73% up considerably from last week’s +23.60%

The Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high of 1,514.94 on October 20, 2017.

Its previous high of 1,514.94 was reached on October 5, 2017.

On March 1, 2017 this index stood at 1,414,82.

 

-Mutual funds

Average year-to-date returns up once again.

The year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested return for equity funds falling under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds moved up a bit when posted at the close of business on Thursday, October 19, 2017 and  stood at 13.75%, accord to Lipper. The previous week the return was 13.54%.

Comparing this week’s Thursday figures to last week’s, the average Sector Fund had a year-to-date total return of 9.53%, down a bit from the week earlier figure of 9.83%.

This week, the two fund types with y-t-d average figures of over 30% were the same fund types—Global Science & Technology funds up on average 39.47% ( last week’s figure 39.38%) and your basic Science & Technology funds, +32.39% ( up from last week’s figure of 32.01%).

World Equity Funds were down a hair from where they were last week at 24.44%, the week previous the figure was 24.54%. Four of them still had year-to-date average returns up over 30%: China Region Funds at +38.39% and down from last week’s +39.04; Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, 33.82% also down from last week’s +33.61%; India Region Funds, +32.32% up from last week’s+32.05; and Latin American Funds, +30.39% down from last week’s 30.94%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• IPO advice

 When I was a broker, getting in on a hot IPO was something many investors clamored to do in hopes of making some quick bucks  knowing well in advance that the likelihood of their orders being filled wasn’t guaranteed.Of course, that was during the last century.

Today, astute investors have learned that jumping on a company’s IPO gun before it fires can backfire. Especially if the company has no profits before going public.

To minimize that kind of IPO risks, Investor’sBusinessDaily offers these smart and common sense tips for IPO wannabees:

• Don’t buy an IPO stock until it forms and breaks out of its first base.
• Focus on profitable companies showing technical strength.
• Cut losses short if the trade goes against you.

 

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POCKETBOOK:Week ending Dec.24, 2016

 

• Holiday peace and joy to all

To honor the true spirit of the holiday season, this week’s money-focused POCKETBOOK will be brief. My hope in doing so is to remind everyone that what’s most important in this life is the wealth that lives within your heart and not the material wealth you may have been fortunate enough to have accumulated.

• Market Quick Glance

Below are the weekly and 1-year performance results for four popular stock indices based on the close of business prices on Friday, Dec. 23, 2016, according to Bloomberg.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +17.51 YTD up from last week’s 16.96%

• 1yr Rtn +16.65% down from last week’s 18.99%

 

-S&P 500 +13.17% YTD up from last week’s 12.84%

• 1yr Rtn +12.27% down from last week’s 15.07%

 

-NASDAQ +10.55%YTD up from last week’s 10.02%

• 1yr Rtn +9;68% down from last week’s 11.96%

 

-Russell 2000 +22.47%YTD up from last week’s 21.82%

• 1yr Rtn +20.55% down from last week’s 23.55%

 

-Mutual funds

At the close of business on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2016, the performance of the average U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 11.53%, off a bit from the previous week’s close of 11.73%, according to Lipper.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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