POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 17, 2019

 

• Happy Spenders and our Great(?) Economy

Whoa. I was at the brand new multi-thousand foot At Home décor store yesterday in North Palm Beach, FL. The hugely huge parking lot was jammed as were the too-many-to-count aisles. As you might imagine, the check-out line snaked around and you would have thought the joint was giving away stuff. They weren’t.

From there it was on to a Sunday stop at Costco and then Aldi’s. Jammola in both stores and their respective parking lots. I said something to the cashier at Costco about the crowd and he said, “It’s a great economy.”

Apparently it is.

Then again, Ford just announced it’s laying off about 10% of its 7,000 white collar work force with about 2,400 of the cuts coming to those in North America and 1,500 others to be eliminated via oluntary buyouts, according to CNN Business.

Then again, again, American households are now holding more debt than they did prior to the 2008 financial crisis. According to CNBC.com, 55% of U.S adults have credit card debt with 22% of them reporting the balances they carry range between $100 and $500 while10% have balances over $5,000.

But wait there’s more: Consumer sentiment is the highest it’s been in 15 years, according to a new University of Michigan survey.

“Consumers viewed prospect for the overall economy much more favorable, with the economic outlook for the near and longer term reaching their highest levels since 2004,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers.

So happy moods are here again.

Then again, so far this year at least 10 stores– whose names we are all familiar with– are closing some of their stores. They include: Victoria’s Secret; JCPenny; Family Dollar; Gymboree; Payless ShoeSource; Charlotte Russe; GAP; Ann Taylor, Loft, Lane Brant: the Ascena Retail Group; Macy’s; and LifeWay Christian Stores.

Huh. I wonder how long our reportedly lowest unemployment rate in decades is going to last.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Last week there were downers everywhere as in on both the year-to-date returns and 1-year ones for the DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 17, 2019.

–DJIA 10.44% YTD down again from the previous week–it closed at 11.21%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 4.25% down again from the previous week 4.86%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   14.07% YTD down from the previous week’s 14.95%

• 1 yr. Rtn 5.12% down from the previous week’s 5.81%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 17.80% YTD down again from last week’s 19.32%.

• 1yr Rtn 5.88% way down from last week’s 6.91%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

The slide continues.

At the close of business on Thursday, May 16, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.04%,according to Lipper. That’s down from the previous week’s close of 15.11%.

Even though there has been a slide in the average year-to-date returns, many different types of funds have average returns near 20% and more. A few of them under the large umbrella heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Funds include;

-Large-Cap Growth funds, 19.30%;

-Multi-Cap Growth funds, 19.50%;

-Mid-Cap Growth Funds, 22.51%;

-Small-Cap Growth funds, 20.73%;

-and Equity Leverage funds, 24.84%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK: Week Ending Oct. 13, 2018

• 

  Worth a look and a reminder.

• Time to get high?

On Wednesday, October 17, Canada will legalize recreational marijuana. That’s big news for anyone who isn’t afraid of sin stocks, and, who is willing to take a chance on a growing, ever-changing, speculative and bottom line risky business.

According to a Bloomberg piece on Yahoo!Finance.com, there are 135 publicly traded pot companies in Canada. How many will be around in a year from now is anybody’s guess. My guess is that figure will be halved. And of that half, maybe 6-10 worth a look.

That said, here is a small sampling of some of the largest pot companies around in no particular order and without recommending: Tilray ( TLRY), it’s up 745% since it IPO in July; Canopy Growth Corp (CGC); Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACBFF); Aphria Inc.; Cronos Group Inc. (CRON); and Hexo Corp. (HYYDF).

These companies, and many more,  need to be seriously and thoroughly researched before investing even a nickel-bag’s worth of your hard-earned cash into as there is much much more to each of them than meets the eye.

Bottom line: Stoners would be wise not to participate in –what could be a huge rush into the cannabis market– until they are clear-headed.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Oh boy. If stocks continue in last week’s downward direction you can pretty much kiss this year’s profits goodbye. Particularly, if you’re an index investor.

So even though a new high was reached for the DJIA on Oct. 3, 2018, that average lost big time y-t-d performance ground when compared to its previous week’s performance.

Lower performance figures for the y-t-d figures were also true for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ—both losing nearly half of their performance returns for 2018.

But it was the Russell 2000 that experienced the biggest hit–it’s y-t-d figure is nearly flat. Ouch.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Oct. 12, 2018.

–DJIA 2.51% YTD way down again from previous week’s return of 6.99%.

• 1 yr Rtn 10.94% way down again from the previous week 16.12 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 3.50 % YTD down and about ½ of what it was re last week’s 7.93%

• 1 yr. Rtn 8.48% way down from last week’s 13.07%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 8.60% YTD way down from last week’s 12.82% (1/2 of what it was in late September.)

• 1yr Rtn 13.74% way way down from last week’s 18.27% (nearly ½ of what it was in late September.)

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 0.73% YTD hugely down from last week’s 6.29% (it was over 10% two weeks ago)

• 1yr Rtn 2.76% way way down from last week’s 7.94%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

As you no doubt expected, equity funds lost ground last week, too.

How much? Well, at the close of business on Thursday, Oct. 11,2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 1.13%, according to Lipper.

That’s not much to crow about and makes fixed-income, such as short-term CD investing, look pretty attractive: Little risk and short-term money lockup time always looks attractive when equity markets dive.

Other broad Lipper headings ended last week like this:

-Sector Equity Funds, -2.51%

-World Equity Funds, -9.73%

-Mixed Asset Funds, -2.11%

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds, -0.80%

-World Income Funds, -4.86%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Save Your Self

According to a recent CNBC.com business news story relying on data from the FDIC, the top 1 percent of earners have $113 million in their banking and retirement accounts. Their average account balances translates to $2.5 million. Oh my.

On the other hand, the bottom 20 percent of earners have an average of $8,720 saved with a median amount saved of $0.

A more specific look at wage earner savings results looks like this:

-Top 10%–average household with savings, $989,430. Median households with savings, $173,860.

-60 to 79.9%—average household with savings, $148,600. Median households with savings, $96,800.

-40 to 59.9%—average household with savings, $82,730. Median households with savings, $54,930.

-20 to 39.9%—average household with savings,$46,950. Median households with savings, $26,450.

-Bottom 20%—average household with savings, $22,600. Median households with savings, $0.

Speaking from experience, it takes a yacht load of money to live life after you’ve passed age 70. Even with an average Social Security check in the neighborhood of $1,300 a month or a plump one of over $2,000 coming in—money flies out of one’s pocketbook, savings and investment accounts faster than you can imagine.

Believe me on that one.

 

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending March 26, 2016

• It’s a bunny market. Really.

Jim Paulsen, chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management, went on record last week referring to current market conditions as neither bearish nor  bullish but bunny-like. You know, hopping up and down in place.

“Unlike an enthusiastic bull or a scary bear, a bunny market hops about a bit but really doesn’t go anywhere, and bunnies have often dominated the stock market during the latter stages of past economic recoveries,” Paulsen wrote in a letter to his clients.

Okay…

 

• Market Quick Glance

-Indices:

There were only four trading days last week as the markets were closed on Good Friday.

Below are year-to-date performance figures for the major indices through March 24, 2016, according to Bloomberg. To provide a longer performance perspective, 1-year returns have been added.

–Dow Jones +1.22% YTD

1yr Rtn -0.20%

-S&P 500 +0.15% YTD

1yr Rtn +0.92%

–NASDAQ -4.34%YTD

1yr Rtn -1.12%

-Russell 2000 -4.66% YTD

1yr Rtn -11.75%

-Mutual funds

Through Thursday, March 24, 2016 the average U.S.Diversified Equity Fund was down 2.03 percent year-to-date, according to Lipper. That’s 50 basis points worse than the previous week’s performance improvement.

Small-Cap Growth Funds were last week’s worst performing category again, down on average 7.93 percent.

Precious Metals Funds lost ground  too but continue to be the high scorer under the Sector Equity Funds heading. They were up on average 38.43 percent y-t-d.

Health and biotech funds are that category’s worst performers. There are 95 Health/Biotechnology Funds that Lipper tracks with an average y-t-d performance of -15.74 percent. The y-t-d average performance of the 42 Global Health/Biotechnology Funds was -12.99 percent.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for weekly updates to see how equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

Lipper’s weekly performance figures for stock and fixed-income funds are at www.allaboutfunds.com in the left column on the home page.

 

• There’s more junk in today’s corporate debt issuance
  

While we’ve seen positive upward trends within the housing market, the number of people with jobs  and stock prices have made up for a lot of their losses that were a result of The Great Depression, the ratings on corporate bonds haven’t been as fortunate.

According to CNNMoney.com, since 2012, 75 percent of the companies seeking a rating from S&P on their debt securities have walked away with a single-B rating. That’s only “one notch up form the triple-C, a rating given to companies with a high probability of default.”

Throw that into the mix of all things corporate and debt related and the result is that the average rating on U.S. corporate debt has not seen lows like this in nearly 15 years.

Investors looking for the juicy yields found on lower rated bonds need to look further than a company’s bond yields and into how sound the company actually is before investing.

 

• Boat lovers have short attention spans

Who hasn’t dreamed about owning a boat—any sized boat from dingy to a sailboat to a yacht? Getting out on the open seas whenever you’d like conjures up all sorts of  magical images.

But even if you can afford the purchase price, upkeep and cost of fuel, here’s the sad reality: Boat owners only spend an average of 10 to 14 days a year on their vessels, according to a study from the Delta Protection Commission, a California-based state organization.

Now that’s sad.

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