Fans of the Wall Street adage, “ Sell in May and go away”, know the strategy has some merit and historically has paid off. On paper anyway.
Folks at the Bespoke Investment Group did their research and found that $100 invested for 50 years in the S&P 500 and owning stocks from May through October would have returned a puny $139. But investing 100 bucks and owning stocks for 50 years from November through April would have paid off to the tune of $2,136.
Market Quick Glance
A big week for a couple of indices: Both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 reached new highs during the week ending Friday, April 28, 2017. Yippy skippy for them. The DJIA and S&P 500 preformed well too, just no new highs.
Below are the weekly and 52-week performance results— including the dates each has reached its high according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, April 28, 2017.
-Dow Jones +5.96% YTD up attractively from last week’s 3.97%
- 1yr Rtn +17.447% up from last week’s 14.27%
The DJIA reached an all-time high of 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.
-S&P 500 +6.45% YTD up from last week’s 4.91%
- 1yr Rtn +14.86% up from last week’s +12.30%
The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 2,400.98 on March 1, 2017.
-NASDAQ +12.34% YTD up handsomely from last week’s +9.80%
- 1yr Rtn +25.85% up from last week’s 19.50%
The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 6074.04 on April 28, 2017.
(Its previous high of 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)
–Russell 2000 +3.19% YTD up from last week’s +1.67%
- 1yr Rtn +22.80% up from last week’s +21.49%
The Russell 2000 reached a new all-time high of 1,425.7 on April 26, 2017.
(Its previous high of 1,414,82 was reached on March 1, 2017.)
At the close of business on Thursday, April 27 ,2017, the average total return for U.S. Diversified Equity Funds was 6.40%. That’s a nice jump up from last week’s 4.64%, according to Lipper.
Four fund types with the highest average returns under that broad heading and through that date were Equity Leverage Funds, 13.69%, Large-Cap Growth Funds, 12.14%, Multi-Cap Growth Funds, 11.42% and Mid-Cap Growth Funds, 10.05%
Under the Sector Equity heading where the average fund is up 4.07%, Global Science Funds were the biggest winners with average y-t-d returns of 17.98%. Commodities Energy Funds the biggest losers, down 13.68%.
And around the world it’s India where the money is being made. Lipper tracks 24 India Region Funds. Average y-t-d return for the group was 25.13%
Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.
A few things to consider going forward:
- Last week I wrote that expecting less from the stock market might wind up being more so I’m with Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, who recently warned investors to plan for and expect lower returns going forward. “These are hazardous time. There are not cheap times. In the market, one never knows what is coming next,” said Bogle in a CNBC interview.
- Covering the costs of a tax reform plan that is based on the relative short-term future growth of our country is as goofy as thinking that the Earth is flat. Economic growth is not a sure thing in the near- or short-term. Outlooks, hopes and promises saying so are poppycock.
- Never invested in stocks before? Don’t start now unless you are absolutely positively sure that you don’t/won’t need the money anytime soon. Like in the next three, five, 10 or 15 months or even a few years out. Investing over the short-term always comes with accepting much more risk than does investing for the long-term, like 10, 20, 30, or 50 years.