Tag Archives: mutual funds

POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 31, 2019

June 3, 2019Uncategorized10% returns, debt, economy not what it appears, go fishing, inverted yield curve, Lipper, markets, mutual funds, oil prices, president, vacationdianvujovich

I’m on vacation

After more than 20-years of writing this weekly blog, I’ve decided to take the month of June off. No blog. No market or mutual fund update. No opinion.

Not sure how successful I’ll be at keeping my fingers off the keyboard but I’ll give it a try.

In the meantime, if you’re a day trader, market volatility is not your friend unless you are a really skilled and lucky day trader. Which, most people aren’t.

If you’re a long-term investor, market ups and downs are a natural part of the deal. Buckle up.

Some thoughts: Re current market conditions, given that we have a president who has threatened and in some cases imposed our most active trading partners with tariffs that has/does/will impact our markets and, as a result, the prices you and I pay for all sorts of things from groceries, to automobiles, etc., you’d be wise to expect some challenging times ahead. Additionally, this guy— who has a passion for insulting everyone, fancies aggressive war-like behavior, boasts about all he does and lies daily— is best taken with a grain of salt no matter what he or tv talking heads have to say. Our economy isn’t as rosy as they’d all like you to believe. Plus, don’t forget that economies are socially sensitive, fickle and hence fragile.

Add to that, we have debt problems; an inverted yield curve; oil prices that are falling; natural disasters on the rise around America that will result in billions of dollars needed to be spent to help those in the areas where people/businesses have suffered; weather issues that are going to impact what farmers produce in the near and not-so-near future; recession worries; global market concerns and the list of things to worry about goes on and on.

Bottom line: Why not go fishing? Spending time in nature has a wonderful way of clearing your head and making you smile.

Market Quick Glance

Weekly downers.

But the good news is year-to-date returns are okay—up about 10% and more.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 31, 2019.

–DJIA 6.38% YTD way down again from the previous week of 9.68%.

1 yr. Rtn 1.64% way down again from the previous week 3.12%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 9.78% YTD way down again from the previous week’s 12.73%

1 yr. Rtn 1.73% way down from the previous week’s 3.60%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

-NASDAQ 12.33% YTD down again from last week’s 15.10%.

1yr Rtn 0.15% way down from last week’s 2.86%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

The slide continues.

At the close of business on Thursday, May 30 , 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 11.21%,according to Lipper.

Other averages y-t-d returns:

-Sector Equity Funds (5/31/19), 10.38%;

-World Equity Funds, 8.58%;

-Mixed Asset Funds, 7.55%;

-Domestic Long-term Fixed-Income Funds, 4.49%;

– And World Income Funds, 4.97%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 17, 2019

May 20, 2019UncategorizedAldi, At Home, consumer spending, consumer survey, Costco, credit card debt, DJIA, Ford, Growth funds win, Lipper, mutual funds, NASDAQ, Richard Curtin, S&P, University of Michigandianvujovich

Happy Spenders and our Great(?) Economy

Whoa. I was at the brand new multi-thousand foot At Home décor store yesterday in North Palm Beach, FL. The hugely huge parking lot was jammed as were the too-many-to-count aisles. As you might imagine, the check-out line snaked around and you would have thought the joint was giving away stuff. They weren’t.

From there it was on to a Sunday stop at Costco and then Aldi’s. Jammola in both stores and their respective parking lots. I said something to the cashier at Costco about the crowd and he said, “It’s a great economy.”

Apparently it is.

Then again, Ford just announced it’s laying off about 10% of its 7,000 white collar work force with about 2,400 of the cuts coming to those in North America and 1,500 others to be eliminated via oluntary buyouts, according to CNN Business.

Then again, again, American households are now holding more debt than they did prior to the 2008 financial crisis. According to CNBC.com, 55% of U.S adults have credit card debt with 22% of them reporting the balances they carry range between $100 and $500 while10% have balances over $5,000.

But wait there’s more: Consumer sentiment is the highest it’s been in 15 years, according to a new University of Michigan survey.

“Consumers viewed prospect for the overall economy much more favorable, with the economic outlook for the near and longer term reaching their highest levels since 2004,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers.

So happy moods are here again.

Then again, so far this year at least 10 stores– whose names we are all familiar with– are closing some of their stores. They include: Victoria’s Secret; JCPenny; Family Dollar; Gymboree; Payless ShoeSource; Charlotte Russe; GAP; Ann Taylor, Loft, Lane Brant: the Ascena Retail Group; Macy’s; and LifeWay Christian Stores.

Huh. I wonder how long our reportedly lowest unemployment rate in decades is going to last.

Market Quick Glance

Last week there were downers everywhere as in on both the year-to-date returns and 1-year ones for the DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ.

–DJIA 10.44% YTD down again from the previous week–it closed at 11.21%.

1 yr. Rtn 4.25% down again from the previous week 4.86%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 14.07% YTD down from the previous week’s 14.95%

1 yr. Rtn 5.12% down from the previous week’s 5.81%.

-NASDAQ 17.80% YTD down again from last week’s 19.32%.

1yr Rtn 5.88% way down from last week’s 6.91%.

-Mutual funds

The slide continues.

At the close of business on Thursday, May 16, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.04%,according to Lipper. That’s down from the previous week’s close of 15.11%.

Even though there has been a slide in the average year-to-date returns, many different types of funds have average returns near 20% and more. A few of them under the large umbrella heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Funds include;

-Large-Cap Growth funds, 19.30%;

-Multi-Cap Growth funds, 19.50%;

-Mid-Cap Growth Funds, 22.51%;

-Small-Cap Growth funds, 20.73%;

-and Equity Leverage funds, 24.84%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 3, 2019

May 6, 2019UncategorizedCNBC.com, DJIA, fund performance contines strong, investment strategy, markets up, mutual funds, S&P500, Sell in May and go Away, Trump's economy, Worries up toodianvujovich

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Sell in May?

For fans of a six-month investment strategy there is none quite like the Sell in May and Go Away one. This technique, according to CNBC.com, involves investing in the DJIA between Nov. 1 and April 30 and then switching to fixed income for the other six months of the year. For some it has has proved profitable over the long haul.

One example, also from that same source, pointed out the following: Put $10,000 into the S&P500 between May 1 and Oct. 31, 1950 to the present, (I’m assuming that means April 30 as the story was published on May 1), you’d have been a loser: Your 10g’s would have dwindled to $4,138. That’s a loss of $5,862. PU.

On the other hand, had you followed the Sell in May and Go Away formula and put $10,000 into the S&P500 from Nov.1 through April 20, you’d have enjoyed a gain of—-hold on to your hat— of $2,836,350. (The “April 20” date is the one used in the CNBC.com story.)

Another example from that same source: Plunk $10,000 on May 1 in 1950 into the DJIA, keep it there until October 31, and the years would have rewarded you with about $1,000. Yikes. Buying on May 1 doesn’t look so smart.

But do the buy Nov. 1 and sell on April 30 beginning in 1950 and ending in April of this year and you’d have a return of over $1 million smackeroos.

Sounds tempting, doesn’t it.

But like all tempting things, this strategy comes with no guarantees of making any money over the long- or short-term. And, with our current Trump economy– that even the wisest of talking heads can’t figure out– the risk-reward ratio of putting that Sell in May play into motion is greater than ever.

Player beware.

Market Quick Glance

Both the S&P and NASDAQ moved ahead last week—not so for the Dow.

But can these highs keep on going? That’s not likely if President Trump’s tariff threats re China are imposed. Tariff wars are not good for any country or their respective stock markets.

–DJIA 13.62% YTD down a hair from the previous week’s 13.79%.

1 yr. Rtn 9.13% up from the previous week 9.13%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 17.50% YTD up a bit from the previous week’s 17.27%

1 yr. Rtn 12.01% up from the previous week’s 10.23%.

-NASDAQ 23.04% YTD up from last week’s 22.77%.

1yr Rtn 15.18% up from last week’s 14.44%.

-Mutual funds

Keeping investors smiling.

And it was another week when year-to-date returns for equity funds proved positive for fund shareholders. At the close of business on Thursday, May 2, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 16.50%, according to Lipper. That’s down a hair from the previous week’s close of 16.54%.

Looking at how equity funds performed during the first quarter of 2019 shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 13.27%.

-Sector Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 12.98%.

-World Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 11.29%.

-Mixed Asset Funds 1^st quarter average return: 8,21%.

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.56%.

-World Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.77%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending April 26, 2019

April 30, 2019UncategorizedBerkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, economic data, gdp, how to succeed at anything, index highs, Lipper, mutual funds, new highs for equity funds, Warren Buffettdianvujovich

Wanna succeed at whatever? Here’s how.

When you boil things down, it doesn’t take that much effort to set yourself on the road to success. Really.

No matter what your chosen field of success happens to be focused on, such as building wealth, helping others or succeeding in business, two well-known oldsters, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger—you know, the guys behind the success of Berkshire Hathaway— understand firsthand what it takes to help insure you’re on the right path to success: Keep learning every day of your life.

In a recent CNBC.com story comes this from Munger who says that Buffett is “learning machine: “If you take Warren Buffett and watched him with a time clock, I would say half of all the time he spends is sitting on his ass and reading,” Munger said in his 2007 commencement speech at the University of Southern California.

“Without lifelong learning, you’re not going to do very well. You’re not going to get very far in life based on what you already know,” says Munger.

So simple. So true. So easy for each of us with aspirations of any kind to do.

Market Quick Glance

All hail America’s recent positive economic data and an annualized GDP growth rate of 3.2% that exceeded most everyone’s expectations. Without it, they would have been no new closing highs reached in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ last week.

–DJIA 13.79% YTD down a hair from the previous week’s 13.86%.

1 yr. Rtn 9.13% up from the previous week 7.68%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 17.27% YTD up a heap from the previous week’s 15.88%

1 yr. Rtn 10.23% up a big bunch from the previous week’s 7.87%.

-NASDAQ 22.77% YTD up a chunk from last week’s 20.54%.

1yr Rtn 14.44% way up from last week’s 10.50%.

-Mutual funds

Still smoken.

Another round up increases in the year-to-date returns for equity funds as, at the close of business on Thursday, April 25, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 16.54%, according to Lipper. That’s up from the previous week’s close of 15.86%.

That broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was hard to top when compared with the y-t-d return of Sector Equity Funds with their average return of 14.40%; World Equity Funds’ return of 13.61%; and Mixed Asset Funds’ return of 10.07%.

Clearly equity funds have been the only game in town as the average y-t-d return of Domestic Long-Term Fixed Income Funds was 4.01%. And, World Income Funds’ 3.87% averge return.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending April 19, 2019

April 22, 2019UncategorizedAlternative Equity, celebrate, DJIA, earbuds, earnings season, Earth Day, learn something, Lipper, mutual funds, NASDAQ, Rhodes Scholar, S&P500dianvujovich

It’s Earth Day

You don’t have to be a tree hugger to acknowledge and respect this incredible planet that we all inhabit. And, you don’t have to be a Rhode Scholar to know that each of us human beings have a roll to play in the management and maintanence of this grand globe we call home.

Knowing that, make sure to take some time today to go outside, take the phone away from your ears, the earbuds out and look around. Then, wherever you’re standing, be still for a minute and tune in to notice that you’ve got air to breathe, look up at the sky above, feel the earth below and be very much aware of the fact that in that moment of your personal time, all is well.

If that doesn’t move you to celebrate our magnificent planet Earth, see a shrink.

Earnings Season

Hey everybody, it’s earnings season. Once again. And this week will be a hugely busy one as 140 of the S&P500 companies are scheduled to report their earnings—or lack of them—to the public and their shareholders.

If you’re a newbee investor, here’s a question: How often does earnings season roll around: A) Once a year; B) 2 times a year; C) 4 times a year; or D) 6 times a year; or E) every other year?

The correct answer is C, 4 times a year. Or quarterly. Each season typically begins a week or two after the last month of each quarter.

How a company’s earnings impacts your holdings can provide some insight into how well your investment pick is doing. Then again, unless you’re an active day trader, a quarterly earnings report might not amount to much of a hill of beans if you’re a long term investor in a well financed, well-managed and well established company.

But ain’t that always the case.

Market Quick Glance

The stock market was closed on Friday, but Thursday’s closing numbers continued to reflect a performance many investors are pleased with as it’s still a double-digit year-to-date return world for the three indices followed here.

–DJIA 13.86% YTD up from the previous week’s 13.22%.

1 yr. Rtn 7.68% down from the previous week 7.88%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 15.88% YTD up from the previous week’s 15.39%

1 yr. Rtn 7.87% down from the previous week’s 8.633%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 20.54% YTD up a bit from last week’s 20.33%%

1yr Rtn 10.50% down and worth noticing from last week’s 11.82%.

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

At the close of business on Thursday, April 18, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.86%, according to Lipper. That’s up a hair from the previous week’s close of 15.73%.

Of the 20 different types of funds that fall under that broad U.S. Diversified Equitiy Fund heading, only two types had year-to-date performance figures under 10%. They were Specialaity Diversified Equtdy Funds, (there are 31 of them) had an average return of 7.96%. And, Alternative Long/Short Equity Funds of which there are 350 funds sporting an average year-to-date return of 7.36%.

Continuing its under water performance given current market conditions, the average total return of the 165 different funds that make up the Dedicated Short Bias Funds category was -21.26%.

One more kinda stinker—Alternative Equity Market Neutral Funds (there are 96 funds in this group) are underwater too with an average return of 1.71%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending April 12, 2019

April 16, 2019UncategorizedBespoke, China Region, commodities funds, Dogs of the Dow, good performance, Humble Dollar newsletter, Jonathan Clements, Lipper, mutual funds, stocks, year-to-datedianvujovich

(From Bespoke….I did not include the “Non-Dogs Performance” chart because I was just Dow Dogs hunting.)

The good Dogs of the Dow

Good news for fans of the Dogs of the Down investment strategy: Their total return is up 13.56% this year. Let’s hear a big “Good girl!” for that.

According to Bespoke, the two tech stocks that have performed the best are IBM, up over 28%, and Cisco, up over 32%. Matching that set, two of the 10 dogs were down as well: Pfizer, down -3.28% and Coca-Cola, off a hair at -0.18%.

Sage advice

From author and wise personal writerJonathan Clements’ recent Humble Dollar newsletter comes this: “But even with the risk of a large short-term market drop, I think stocks remain the best bet for long-term investors. U.S. shares may be richly priced. But those who diversify globally will also have cheaper markets in their portfolio. And let’s face it: With 10-year Treasury notes yielding less than 2.6%, is there any alternative to biting the bullet and buying stocks?”

Market Quick Glance

The performance gods appear to continue smiling on Wall Street as the three indices followed here were up double-digits when last week came to a close.

–DJIA 13.22% YTD off a hair from the previous week’s 13.28%.

1 yr. Rtn 7.88% up a hair from the previous week 7.83%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 15.39% YTD up again from the previous week’s 13.07%

1 yr. Rtn 8.63% up from the previous week’s 7.33%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 20.33% YTD up from last week’s 19.64%%

1yr Rtn 11.82% down from last week’s 12.18%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

At the close of business on Thursday, April 11, 2017, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 15.73%, according to Lipper. That’s up from the previous week’s close of 15.05%.

Those Equity Leverage Funds are still tearing it up as, on average, they have returned 30.99%. In fact, of all the dozens of types of mutual funds that Lipper tracks weekly, this group has rewarded shareholders the most so far this year.

Commodities Energy Funds also continue their upward performance with an average return of 24.63%.

And looking around the world China Region Funds have returned about the same at 23.15% while the average World Equity Funds return stood at 13.57% last Thursday.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending March 29, 2019

April 1, 2019Uncategorized2019 quarter, Bob Pisani, CNBC, dividend paying stocks, DJIA, Kimberley Clark, Lipper, major indexes, mutual funds, Navellier Marketmail, Pepsi, PPL, Q1, Verizon, your returnsdianvujovich

What a quarter

When 2018 came to a close, generally speaking, there wasn’t much enthusiasm for robust returns coming round by the end of Q1 in 2019. But that was months ago thinking. Today, the proof in the pudding has been revealed and 2019’s first quarter was a whopper with all indices scoring big.

According to a recent piece at CNBC.com by Bob Pisani, the quarter’s gains were shared across the board with technology stocks leading the most, up 17 percent, oil rallying from $43 at year’s end to almost $60 at the end of March 2019, industrial stocks up 15 percent with 90 percent of S&Ps stocks up.

And that’s all happened with the worries about what an inverted yield curve could mean to equities going forward and investor thinking.

From where I sit, the only investor thinking that matters is how you—the individual investor—are thinking. Did you rethink your personal and retirement portfolio after seeing your 2018 returns? If you did, are you glad you did, sorry you fiddled with things and/or wished you had let things go on as they were.

Whatever. The only right answer with respect to assessing quarterly–or annual– market returns is how your investments are holding up and serving you.

As in life, everyone’s portfolio holdings are as different as is the size of each of our noses, ears, waistlines and our income, savings and retirement accounts.

May each grow respectfully over time.

Dividend paying stock ideas from Louie

I’ve always been a big fan of dividend paying stocks. Once upon a time, and when I first became a stockbroker in the early 1980’s, word was stocks paying dividends were considered a good conservative play for widows and orphans. Forget the images that thought conjures up, dividend paying stocks have pretty much always been a good play for most types of investors—the married, widowed, young, old, single, divorced, the rich and underfunded.

In Louis Navellier’s Marketmail newsletter dated March 26, 2019, he suggested investors research and consider these big blue-chip dividend paying stock ideas:

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP). It pays a dividend yield of 3.07% and owns brands like Diet Pepsi, Aquafina, Doritos, Lays, Lipton, Gatorade, Fritos, and Mountain Dew.
Kimberley Clark (KMB) pays 3.38%
Dominion Energy (D) paying 4.86%
PPL Corp. (PPL) paying 5.13%
Verizon (VZ) paying 4.06%

Market Quick Glance

And what a week it was with all three of the indices bringing home the bacon deliciously in their year-to-date returns.

–DJIA 11.15% YTD up a jump from the previous week’s 9.32%.

1 yr. Rtn 7.57% up from the previous week 6.45%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 13.07% YTD a jump up from the previous week’s 11.72%

1 yr. Rtn 7.33% up from the previous week’s 5.94%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 16.49% YTD up from last week’s 15.18%%

1yr Rtn 9.43% a jump up from last week’s 6.64%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

Repeat from previous week ending March 21, 2019:

The year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 14.26% at the close of business on Thursday, March 21, 2019, according to Lipper.

Among the 408 Mid-Cap Growth Funds that fall under that huge Diversified category, the average year-to-date return was an impressive 20.17%. Small-Cap Growth Funds, however, performed better: 20.37% for the 592 funds that Lipper tracks in that group.

And then there are Equity Leverage Funds—-the average YTD performance of the 228 funds under that heading was 28.36%.

On the other hand, Dedicated Short Bias Funds’ average YTD return was -20.61%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending March 22, 2019

March 26, 2019UncategorizedBank of America Merrill Lynch, CNBC Market Insider, gloomy future, Inflation, Lipper, Mark Cabana, mutual funds, Pew Research, Recessions, small- and mid-cap funds doing well, stocksdianvujovich

Recession coming?

The bond market is signaling a recession could be in our near future and if that is the case, word is recessions typically last around a year and during them stocks don’t always perform horribly during one. The bugaboo in it all, however, is inflation: It and recessions are first cousins and no one is a fan of it. Then again, we’re already seeing price increases on plenty of the items we purchase thanks to the tariffs Trump has imposed.

Oh well, another day in the upside down, topsy turvery pretzel-like who-is-on-first world we all are currently living in.

But I degress.

Back to the recession subject.

From CNBC MarketInsider.com comes this: “As far as recession goes, our economist feels quite optimistic that a recession will be avoided, at least this year. The market is focused not only on U.S. fundamentals but also on what’s happening in China, what’s happening in the rest of the world and how likely it is that political uncertainty, whether through trade policy or whatever, how likely is that to persist and beget a recession,” said Mark Cabana, head of short U.S.rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch…..
“As recession signals begin to flash and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there’s a risk that it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Cabana said.”

Okay then.

Pew Research’s not-so-bright future study returns

A recent Pew research report has shed light on some not-so-happy or inspiring future outcomes. In other words, looking out 30 years, things aren’t looking very rosy.

Below are a few of results from the Pew Research Center Social & Demographic Trends report dated March 21, 2019:

7 in 10 Americans were dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country.
60% of those interviewed say the U.S. will be less important in the world by 2050.
73% think that the gap between the rich and poor will continue to grow.
65% say the country will be more politically devided over the next 30 years.
And, the majority of those responding expect the economy to be weaker, health care less affordable, the environment worse and that older Americans will have a harder time makes ends meet than they do now.

Oh my.

Market Quick Glance

A week of mixed year-to-date returns with 1-year returns up.

–DJIA 9.32% YTD up a tad from the previous week’s 9.10%.

1 yr. Rtn 6.45% way up from the previous week 2.23%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 11.72% YTD down from the previous week’s 12.59%

1 yr. Rtn 5.94% way up from the previous week’s 2.74%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 15.18% YTD down a hair from last week’s 15.87%%

1yr Rtn 6.64% up from last week’s 2.76%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

The year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance for equity funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 14.26% at the close of business on Thursday, March 21, 2019, according to Lipper.

And then there are Equity Leverage Funds—-the average YTD performance of the 228 funds under that heading was 28.36%.

On the other hand, Dedicated Short Bias Funds’ average YTD return was -20.61%.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending March 8, 2019

March 11, 2019Uncategorized20 years, allaboutfunds, got cash?, household finances down, Invesco, John Frank, largest funds performances, Lipper, mutual funds, QQQ, QQQ strategist, Reutersdianvujovich

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One old, fat ETF turns 20

On March 10, 1999, Invesco introduced their hugely popular and successful QQQ ETF. Now, 20 years later, the QQQ is the sixth largest U.S. listed ETF, has $66.4 billion in assets under management and was the second most traded ETF in 2018.

What’s it’s appeal? The QQQ tries to reflect the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index, and we all know how hot Nasdaq stocks can be.

According to INVESCO, “A lot of investors think it’s just technology, and actually, today, it’s about 40% technology and 60% other sectors, so we really look at it as large-cap growth and has a lot of the biggest innovators that we know in the economy today,” John Frank, QQQ Strategist for Invesco, said at the Inside ETFs Conference.

Since it’s original launch QQQ had an original weighting of 78% toward technology—a reflection of the dot.com world that was swinging in high form way back then.

Now the portfolio looks like this: 43.0% information technology, 23.3% communication services, 16.1% consumer discretionary, 8.5% health care, 6.0% consumer staples, 2.5% industrials, 0.4% utilities and 0.3% financials. Additionally its components include large-cap growth companies (60.8%), large-cap blended names (23.6% and large-cap value stocks (13.0%).

Top components include Microsoft (NasdaqGS: MSFT) 9.9%, Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL) 9.6%, Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN) 9.3% and Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) 4.8%, among others.

As for performance, since inception the QQQs annual return is around 7.2%; over the last 15 years it was 13.7%; and during the past 10 years has returned almost 21.4%.

Kinda sorta impressive, isn’t it.

Believe what you want, but….

According to a recent Reuters piece, based on data from the Federal Reserve,
“U.S. household wealth fell by a record $3.8 trillion, or 3.5 percent, at the end of 2018..”

In other words, based on percentages, the 5.9% fall represented the biggest quarterly percentage stumble in household finances since 2008.

Oh my.

Market Quick Glance

Not such a hot performance week for the three major indices followed here. In fact, year-to-date returns on each lost ground. Oh, dear.

–DJIA 9.10% YTD down from the previous week’s 11.57%.

1 yr. Rtn 2.23% down from the previous week 5.76%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 11.84% YTD down from the previous week’s 11.84

1 yr. Rtn 0.15% down from the previous week’s 4.71%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 11.65% YTD down from last week’s 14.47%

1yr Rtn -0.27% way down from last week’s 5.78%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

As one might expect, at the close of business on Thursday, March 7, 2019, the year-to-date total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was10.86%. That’s down a sum from last week’s figure of 12.98%, according to Lipper.

Of the 25 Largest Mutual Funds that Lipper tracks, iShares Russ 2000 ETF had the best y-t-d performance of 13.19%.

Behind it were the iShares: Core S&P Md-Cp at 12.46%. And behind it the Invesco QQQ Trust 1 at 11.22%.

The three worst y-t-d- performing funds were DoubleLine at 0.90%: the PIMCO TotRtnl at 1.34%; and iShares: Core US Agg Bd at 1.44%

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Jan. 11, 2019

January 14, 2019Uncategorizeda bear market all dressed up, banks not crumbling, credit card debt, high debt for folks, India funds, indices up, Lipper, mutual funds, TheBalancedianvujovich

img_0720(1) — **As for the market’s direction, could it be a bear in wedding dress clothing? Time will tell.**

Credit Card Debt

Put aside the fact that America’s national debt has risen by huge leaps and bounds under the current administration, what may or may not surprise you is that personal credit card debt has risen too.

According to TheBalance.com, U.S. consumers now have acquired over $1 trillion in credit card debt. Divide that by the number of households in the country and that breaks down to $5,700 in debt per household.

But wait, there’s more: Look at just the households that already have credit card debt and the average debt for those households is heading for $10,000, ($9.333), according to ValuePenguin.

All of which makes me wonder about how really great is this economy that you hear so much about. Or the fabulous job numbers. Or, the low inflation.

Something does add up.

Market Quick Glance

For one week there were positive signs of life on Wall Street as all three indices followed here showed some nice one week gains.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Jan. 11, 2019.

–DJIA 2.87% YTD way up from the previous week’s 0.45%.

1 yr. Rtn -6.17% improved from the previous week -6.55%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

-S&P 500 3.57% YTD up from last week’s 1.00%

1 yr. Rtn -6.19% improved from last week’s -7.05%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

-NASDAQ 5.07% YTD way up from last week’s 1.56%

1yr Rtn -3.33% improved from last week’s -4.79%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

-Mutual funds

Looking up.

At the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019, the total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 4.70%, according to Lipper.

Looking at the fund types with the highest year-to-date gains under the various headings shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds average, 4.70%; highest Equity Leveraged Funds, 11.08%; lowest, Dedicated Short Bias Funds, -8.88%

-Sector Equity Funds average 4.88%; highest Energy MLP Funds, 11.74%; lowest Alternative Managed Funds, -2.20%

-World Equity Funds average 4.07%; highest Latin American Funds, 9.01%; lowest India Region Funds, -1.23%.

Banking on banks

Turns out, 2018 was a great year for banks if being a great year means that none failed.

CNBC reported “ 2018 was the first year since 2006 and only the third since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created in 1933 that a calendar year passed without a bank failure, according to Bloomberg.”

FYI, the peak year for failures was 2010 when 157 institutions bellied up. And during the savings and loan crisis, in 1989 there were 534 lenders that failed.

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Believe what you want, but….

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