•Bookies bets and recession realities
Wall Streeters aren’t the only ones who consider odds. Turns out the gambling world does too. According to Paddy Power, an online betting site, the odds of Trump not completing a full term as President of the United States is 7 to 4.
Additionally, the odds of Trump being impeached or forced to resign are 4 to 2; to split from Melania in 2017, 16 to 1; and to paint the entire White House gold, 500 to 1.
On that last point, Trump has made quite a dent with that gold thing. Seems this golden-haired guy has already had gold curtains installed in the Oval Office along with a gold rug and who knows where else you’ll find his golden touch.
While gold may be his thing, color the entire economic picture of the United States of America gray as the likelihood of a Trump recession during his tenure in office is 100 %.
As I wrote a few weeks back, there has been a recession during every single Republican president’s administration since World War II.
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Market Quick Glance
In case you’ve forgotten, there were only 4 trading days last week—Monday was the Martin Luther King holiday and markets were closed. Oh, and there was the inauguration of our 45th President–a holiday for some.
So it was a four-day Wall Street week and as it turned out, not a great one for investors with the indices all closing lower than they had the week previous.
Below are the weekly and 1-year performance results for four popular stock indices based on the close of business prices on Friday, Jan. 20, according to Bloomberg.
-Indices:
-Dow Jones + 0.43% YTD down from last week’s 1.07%.
- 1yr Rtn +26.53% up from last week’s 23.63%.
P/E Ratio 18.66 up from last week’s 18.80.
-S&P 500 +1.55% YTD down from last week’s 1.67%.
- 1yr Rtn +21.73% down from last week’s +23.63%.
P/E Ratio 21.22 up from last week’s 20.36.
-NASDAQ +3.23 YTD down from last week’s3.57%.
- 1yr Rtn +22.65% down from last week’s 25.87%.
P/E Ratio 34.39 down from last week’s 34.47.
-Russell 2000 -0.35%YTD way down from last week’s +1.13%
- 1yr Rtn +34.44% down from last week’s +38.0%.
P/E Ratio 48.13 down from last week’s 49.19.
-Mutual funds
Average year-to-date returns were lower at the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017, as the average U.S. Diversified Equity Fund ended the week up 0.94%, according to Lipper ( it closed on 1/12/17 at 1.38%).
Even Equity Leverage Funds were off at 3.59% from the previous week’s 4.62% average return. Large-Cap Growth Funds were a tad off at 3.11% from their 1/12/17 showing of 3.13%.
The average year-to-date Sector Fund was up 1.43%; World Equity Fund up 2.55%; and Mixed Asset Funds ahead by 1%.
Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.
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Fidelity stock fund managers and the stocks they like.
Ever now and then I get an email from Jim Lowell, editor of Fidelity Investor, an investor advice newsletter.
In the one received on Jan. 22, he listed Fidelity’s Top 20 Favorite Stocks that he wrote were
“ the most owned, and hence most liked, by Fidelity’s top managers.”
While I can’t verify that. Or, don’t know the date when the list was compiled or when they were gleaned precisely from where, or if those holdings are still in portfolios, I did find the list interesting and thought you might too.
With that in mind, the list of 20 includes:
#1) Alphabet (GOOG)
#2)Apple(APPL)
#3) Facebook (FB)
#4) Amazon (AMZN)
#5) iShares ETFs
#6) Microsoft (MSFT)
#7) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK):
#8) Visa (V)
#9) UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
#10) Medtronic (MDT)
#11) Salesforce (CRM)
#12) Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
#13) NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
#14) JP Morgan Chase (JPM)
#15) Wells Fargo (WFC)
#16) Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)
#17) Home Depot (HD)
#18) Chevron (CVX)
#19) MasterCard Inc. (MA)
#20) QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM)
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