POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 31, 2019

 

• I’m on vacation

After more than 20-years of writing this weekly blog, I’ve decided to take the month of June off. No blog. No market or mutual fund update. No opinion.

Not sure how successful I’ll be at keeping my fingers off the keyboard but I’ll give it a try.

In the meantime, if you’re a day trader, market volatility is not your friend unless you are a really skilled and lucky day trader. Which, most people aren’t.

If you’re a long-term investor, market ups and downs are a natural part of the deal. Buckle up.

Some thoughts: Re current market conditions, given that we have a president who has threatened and in some cases imposed our most active trading partners with tariffs that has/does/will impact our markets and, as a result, the prices you and I pay for all sorts of things from groceries, to automobiles, etc., you’d be wise to expect some challenging times ahead. Additionally,  this guy— who has a passion for insulting everyone, fancies aggressive war-like behavior, boasts about all he does and lies daily— is best taken with a grain of salt  no matter what he or tv talking heads have to say. Our economy isn’t as  rosy as they’d all like you to believe.  Plus,  don’t forget that economies are socially sensitive,  fickle and hence fragile.

Add to that, we have debt problems; an inverted yield curve; oil prices that are falling; natural disasters on the rise around America that will result in billions of dollars needed to be spent to help those in the areas where people/businesses have suffered; weather issues that are going to impact what farmers produce in the near and not-so-near future; recession worries; global market concerns and the list of things to worry about goes on and on.

Bottom line: Why not go fishing?  Spending time in nature has a wonderful way of clearing your head and making you smile.

 

 

• Market Quick Glance

Weekly downers.

But the good news is year-to-date returns are okay—up about 10% and more.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 31, 2019.

–DJIA 6.38% YTD way down again from the previous week of 9.68%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 1.64% way down again from the previous week 3.12%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   9.78% YTD way down again from the previous week’s 12.73%

• 1 yr. Rtn 1.73% way down from the previous week’s 3.60%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 12.33% YTD down again from last week’s 15.10%.

• 1yr Rtn 0.15% way down from last week’s 2.86%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

The slide continues.

At the close of business on Thursday, May 30 , 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 11.21%,according to Lipper.

Other averages y-t-d returns:

-Sector Equity Funds (5/31/19), 10.38%;

-World Equity Funds, 8.58%;

-Mixed Asset Funds, 7.55%;

-Domestic Long-term Fixed-Income Funds, 4.49%;

– And World Income Funds, 4.97%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending April 14, 2018

• Golden

Good news this week for gold investors. On Wednesday, gold futures traded at an intraday high of $1,369.30 an ounce, according to Gary Wagner’s Kitco Commentary on Friday, April 13, 2018.

The June Comex contract wasn’t quite that high at the close of business on Friday ($1,348.60), but even so, for the week gold had enjoyed an $11 an ounce  gain.

That’s a big deal because this precious metal has had a hard time making any kind of sustainable gains over the past few years. And, in a jumpy market like we’ve all been a part of, one might consider that a bit of an oddity.

That said, the big takeaway here is that you’ve got to go back to August 2016 to find gold trading at that high a level. “More importantly,” writes Wagner, “ the highs achieved during that rally were the first occurrence of a higher high since the multiyear correction (that) began in the middle of 2011.”

Perhaps it’s time to reconsider the value of this precious metal for ones investment portfolio other than see its worth only in golden bangles, earrings or as a cap to top off one of your back molars.

 

• Market Quick Glance

A better performance week for stock index results than the week before with the downs not as down and the ups more up.

Look at the 1-year returns and one might even begin to wonder what all the bears on Wall Street are concerned about. Then again, the only time that 1-year returns that seem to matter to the average investor is when the end of the year 52-week results are in.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, April 13, 2018.

 

–DJIA -1.45% YTD down but less than the previous week’s -3.18%

• 1 yr Rtn 19.10% up from the previous week’s 15.82%

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 -0.65% YTD down much less than last week’s -2.59%

• 1 yr Rtn 14.06% up from last week’s 10.48%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ 2.94% YTD way up from last week’s 0.17%

• 1yr Rtn 22.42% way up from last week’s 17.62%

Nasdaq reached a brand new all-time high on March 13, 2018 of 7,637.27. The previous high was reached on March 9, 2018 of 7,560.81.

 

-Russell 2000 0.91% YTD up from than last week’s -1.45%

• 1yr Rtn 15.18% way up from last week’s 10.91%

The Russell 2000 reached an all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.

 

-Mutual funds

Lipper’s weekly mutual fund performance figures not available yet. Will post them when received.

Till then, here’s a repeat look at last week’s report: At the close of business on Thursday, April 4, 2018 the average fund that falls under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had a year-to-date return of +0.32%. That’s up—yes up—from the previous week’s average of -0.37%.

Large-Cap and Small-Cap Growth funds were up on average well over 3% last week. Science & Technology Funds and Global Science & Technology Funds both up at 4.92 and 5.08% respectively.

Latin American Funds, too, were up–averaging almost 6% y-t-d.

The biggest loser fund type of all were Energy MLP, down on average -10.02%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

•   Credit Risks

The ability to raise, borrow and repay money is great deal. And one individuals as well as businesses count on. But like everything else within the world of money, risks exist and timing is everything.

Last week, Jack Ablin,CFA and Chief Financial Officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors published a piece titled “Credit Conditions and Risk Taking”.

From the piece: “The easiest way to gauge real time credit conditions is by observing the yield differential between 10-year, BBB bonds and 10-year Treasury notes. Since the bond market is roughly seven times the size of the stock market, the yield premium lenders require to extend credit to lower-quality borrowers is a useful barometer.”

While currently credit conditions are “favorable”, Ablin thinks that rising credit spreads can be an early warning sign of troubles ahead.

The chart below  provides additional insight on the subject.

 

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