POCKETBOOK Week Ending May 3, 2019

• Sell in May?

For fans of a six-month investment strategy there is none quite like the Sell in May and Go Away one. This technique, according to CNBC.com, involves investing in the DJIA between Nov. 1 and April 30 and then switching to fixed income for the other six months of the year. For some it has has proved profitable over the long haul.

One example, also from that same source, pointed out the following: Put $10,000 into the S&P500 between May 1 and Oct. 31, 1950 to the present, (I’m assuming that means April 30 as the story was published on May 1),  you’d have been a loser: Your 10g’s would have dwindled to $4,138. That’s a loss of $5,862. PU.

On the other hand, had you followed the Sell in May and Go Away formula and put $10,000 into the S&P500 from Nov.1 through April 20, you’d have enjoyed a gain of—-hold on to your hat— of $2,836,350. (The “April 20” date is the one used in the CNBC.com story.)

Another example from that same source: Plunk $10,000 on May 1 in 1950 into the DJIA, keep it there until October 31, and the years would have rewarded you with about $1,000. Yikes. Buying on May 1 doesn’t look so smart.

But do the buy Nov. 1 and sell on April 30 beginning in 1950 and ending in April of this year and you’d have a return of over $1 million smackeroos.

Sounds tempting, doesn’t it.

But like all tempting things, this strategy comes with no guarantees of making any money over the long- or short-term. And, with our current Trump economy– that even the wisest of talking heads can’t figure out– the risk-reward ratio of putting that Sell in May play into motion is greater than ever.

Player beware.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Both the S&P and NASDAQ moved ahead last week—not so for the Dow.

But can these highs keep on going? That’s not likely if President Trump’s tariff threats re China are imposed. Tariff wars are not good for any country or their respective stock markets.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, May 3, 2019.

–DJIA 13.62% YTD down a hair from the previous week’s 13.79%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 9.13% up from the previous week 9.13%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   17.50% YTD up a bit from the previous week’s 17.27%

• 1 yr. Rtn 12.01% up from the previous week’s 10.23%.

*****The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Friday April 26, 2019 of 2,939.88. The previous all-time closing high was on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. Prior to that, the high of 2,916.50 was reached on August 29, 2018.

 

-NASDAQ 23.04% YTD up from last week’s 22.77%.

• 1yr Rtn 15.18% up from last week’s 14.44%.

*********Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW All-Time CLOSING HIGH on Friday, April 26, 2019 of 8,146.40. Prior to that, the previous high of 8,1333.30 was reached on August 30, 2018. Before that, on August 24, 2018 reached it’s then all-time high of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Keeping investors smiling.

And it was another week when year-to-date returns for equity funds proved positive for fund shareholders. At the close of business on Thursday, May 2, 2019, the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund was 16.50%, according to Lipper. That’s down a hair from the previous week’s close of 16.54%.

Looking at how equity funds performed during the first quarter of 2019 shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 13.27%.

-Sector Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 12.98%.

-World Equity Funds 1^st quarter average return: 11.29%.

-Mixed Asset Funds 1^st quarter average return: 8,21%.

-Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.56%.

-World Income Funds 1^st quarter average return: 3.77%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

-30-

 

Advertisement

POCKETBOOK Week Ending Feb.1, 2019

• Golden appeal

Turns out, central banks bought more gold in 2018 than any years since 1967, according to the World Gold Council. That’s good news for anyone loving this precious metal—just not always profitable news.

Surprisingly, that increase in what gold was being used for wasn’t in jewelry. Nope, counties such as China, Poland, Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan have been adding it to their reserves. Jewelry demand, on the other hand, was pretty much unchanged.

We’ve been told that gold is generally thought of as a good bet during times of political or economic unrest and turbulence. And, it’s always been thought of as a kind of balancer, or hedge, to one’s existing equity portfolios during volatile markets even though making money from it hasn’t been a slam dunk.

That said, if you’ve an interest in the glittery stuff, here’s a brief look at how its per ounce price has performed over the years according to data from KITCO.com;

-10 year high 1900.30; low 868.70

-5 year high 1382.; low 1050.6

-1 year high 1353.30; low 1173,70

-Today, Monday, Feb.4, 2019 at 2:52 pm—1313.70

“Economic uncertainty, slowdown, (and the) U.S.-China trade conflict supported investment flows,” said the World Gold Council’s head of market intelligence, Alistair Hewitt who added. “This dynamic is likely to run through 2019.”

 

• Market Quick Glance

Nice jump ups last week on the year-to-date returns for the three indices followed here. But can that trend, if it is a trend, continue? Time will tell.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Feb.1, 2019.

–DJIA 7.44% YTD up from the previous week’s 6.04%.

• 1 yr. Rtn -4.29% improved from the previous week -6.2%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   7.97 % YTD down from last week’s 6.30%

• 1 yr. Rtn -4.09% improved from last week’s -6.15%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 9.47% YTD up from last week’s 7.98%

• 1yr Rtn -1.65% improved from last week’s -3.32%

NASDAQ reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Repeat from early January:

Looking up.

At the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019, the total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 4.70%, according to Lipper.

Looking at the fund types with the highest year-to-date gains under the various headings shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds average, 4.70%; highest Equity Leveraged Funds, 11.08%; lowest, Dedicated Short Bias Funds, -8.88%

-Sector Equity Funds average 4.88%; highest Energy MLP Funds, 11.74%; lowest Alternative Managed Funds, -2.20%

-World Equity Funds average 4.07%; highest Latin American Funds, 9.01%; lowest India Region Funds, -1.23%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Christian Investing

I remember learning that it was easier for a camel to get through the eye of a needle than it was for a rich man to get into heaven. I’m going to guess that the folks who run the various portfolios of the Timothy Plan might see that differently.

The Timothy Plan group of funds was created 25 years ago to meet the needs of Christian investors who didn’t want their money invested in companies that support things such as pornography, abortion, wars, any anti-family causes or simply companies whose products run contrary to the teachings of Scripture.

To date that’s paid off for them as the family now has over $1 billion under management.

From their recent press release: “The impact of our investments affects more than the return column on our account statements, it enables companies of high moral character to establish a greater presence in our community at large—Kingdom Impact Investing.”

Believers in that style of investing can learn more about their funds, fund performances, etc.  at TimothyPlan.com.

-30-

 

 

POCKETBOOK weekend Sept. 15, 2018

 

•Big Debts

Carry on all you’d like about the economy and a bull market that just doesn’t know when to stop running but make sure not to forget about, or overlook, the debt President Trump’s policies have put in place.

Each of us knows how important facing the debt we have in our personal lives is—and what happens when we overlook it. The same is true for government debt spending: debts need to be addressed and paid back.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the government has spent a whole lot more during the past 11 months than it has brought in from taxes and revenues.

How much more? $895 billion more. That’s “b” as in “billion”  not “m”. And is a figure that reflects an increase of  33 percent.

Debts matter.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Year-to-date gains still gaining.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018.

–DJIA 5.81% YTD up from previous week’s return of 4.84%.

• 1 yr Rtn 17.90% down from the previous week 18.97 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 8.65% YTD up from last week’s 7.41%

• 1 yr Rtn 16.40% down a hair from last week’s 16.41%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50. The previous closing high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 2,876.16.

 

-NASDAQ 16.03% YTD up from last week’s 14.47%

• 1yr Rtn 24.59% up from last week’s 23.52%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 12.13% YTD up from last week’s 11.57%

• 1yr Rtn 20.82% down from last week’s 22.49%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Moving up a bit.

At the close of business on Thursday, Sept. 13,2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 8.96%. That’s up  from the previous week’s 8.26%, according to Lipper.

It continues to be a Small-Cap Growth Funds world, as funds here now up on average 22%.

Comparing that group’s return with 25 of the largest individual funds around, (largest in terms of assets), and it’s the Invesco QQQ Trust 1 with the best y-t-d performance at 18.92%

Fifteen of the 25 funds in that listing have returns over 10%. Impressive.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Yahoo!! Your SS check is going up!

It’s mo money time, almost.

Every October, along with the ghosts and goblins of the season, the Social Security Administration announces what their cost of living (COLA) adjustments for the coming year will be.

And there is good news for those of us who count on every penny from that government check: It’s going up 2.8%.

Translating that into dollars and cents, the average Social Security check in 2018 is $1400. Beginning in January 2019, if the world doesn’t fall apart by then, that check will see an increase of $39.

While that’s the good news, the not-so-hot good news is that inflation is running around that same amount.

Bottom line: Don’t expect that extra 2.8% increase to have much purchasing power next year.

-30-