Tag Archives: Latin American Funds up

POCKETBOOK: Week ending Nov.11, 2016

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  • A 25% win

Lest you believe that all of America loves President-elect Donald Trump, think again: Less than  50 % of all registered voters cast a ballot this year—the lowest voter turnout since 1984. Of that half, only about half of them voted for Trump for president. That translates into a win of roughly 25%. Nothing to write home about even though it translated into a White House win.

What a President Trump means for an America— in which 75% of citizens either decided not to vote or didn’t vote for him— is worrisome.

So, when you hear all the talking heads on radio, tv or online saying America is a divided nation, don’t believe them. America is way more than an equally divided nation—it is a seriously divided nation with a compass pointer strongly tilted toward the negative  and anchored in that direction by  fear and uncertainty.

And no, Trump did not win by a huge majority.

  • Market Quick Glance

A week ago, very few would have predicted that Donald Trump would win the election. Or, that stocks would host a hot diggity dog post Election Day rally during the days that followed. But, all of that did happen. You haven’t been dreaming.

What that positive news means for investors in the near term or by year’s end  is, of course, anybody’s guess as there will be plenty of economic news coming forth next week and during the weeks that follow.

Warren Buffett, the very comfortable and happiest looking optimist in America today, told CNNs Poppy Harlow,  (during a worth listening to interview),  that he doesn’t know how stock prices will perform next year. But, that in 15 to 20 years they would  be higher.

Nothing particularly sage-like about that call. But hey, Buffett is nice to listen to and watching him makes me kinda wanna jump up  on his lap–and pick his pockets.

With that visual in mind, below are the weekly and 1-year performance results for four popular stock indices along with their respective P/E Ratios. Figures are all  based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov.11, 2016 and according to Bloomberg.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +10.70% YTD up substantially from last week’s 4.91%

  • 1yr Rtn +12.23% up a lot from last week’s 2.28%

P/E Ratio 17.97 up from last week’s 17.05

-S&P 500 +7.92% YTD up double from last week’s 3.38%

  • 1yr Rtn +9.34% up plenty from last week’s 1.50%

P/E Ratio 20.21 up from week’s 19.49

NASDAQ +5.81% YTD up from last week’s 1.93%

  • 1yr Rtn +7.71% way up from last week’s -0.61%

P/E Ratio 30.31 up from last week’s 29.43

Russell 2000 +14.34 YTD seriously up from last week’s 3.69%

  • 1yr Rtn +13.55% also seriously up from last week’s -1.55%

P/E Ratio 45.14 up from last week’s 41.25

 

-Mutual funds

After a week that was, the year-to-date  average return on  U.S. Diversified Equity Funds was up 6.15% at the close of business on Thursday, Nov.10, 2016, according to Lipper.

Under that broad umbrella heading, Small-Cap Value Funds scored the most, up on average 14.87%. They were followed by Equity Leverage Funds, up 14.74%.

The average Sector Equity Fund was up 7.87% with Precious Metals Equity Funds up 67.83 now—way off their year-to-date average fix-figure highs.

Around the world, Latin American Funds were up on average 24.31% and continue to top the year-to-date performance figures under the World Equity Funds heading. They, however, have  lost ground too. Last week their average y-t-d return was over 35%.

Please visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Presidential Market Returns

History has shown us that a Democrat in the White House has proven more profitable to investors than when Republicans have lived there.

The  4-year annualized returns of the S&P 500, beginning on March 4, 1929 through August 5, 2016, show  during Democratic administrations the average annualized return of that index  up 10.83% vs. a  1.71% return under a Republican presidency, according to Forbes.

Oh my.

That said, four-year market returns basically have little to do with the party of the President. What matters much more than a party’s donkey or elephant affiliation is a host of other conditions—such as economic conditions, corporate profits, wars or lack of them, inflation, employment, etc. etc.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending April 9, 2016

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•Recession Risk Light Flashing Yellow

Straight from the mouth of FinancialSense comes this: “Though we are not expecting the US to be entering a recession currently, it is clear that the risk of one has increased meaningfully since last year. In the beginning of 2015, our recession model was showing a very low (1-2%) risk of recession. With deteriorating economic conditions, it is now reading a 15% probability, which is not far below the 20% critical threshold. Once we get above that point, economic weakness tends to accelerate……”

And this: “Corporate profits are also giving a very clear warning signal on the US economy and stock market as well. On a year-over-year basis, the current decline is now steeper than the readings we saw entering the 2001 and 2008 recessions.

“If we look at the data going back to 1950, there was only one instance in 1986 (circled in red) where profits have declined this far year-over-year without the US economy entering a recession.”

Read more and view the graphs at: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964161-recent-data-shows-u-s-recession-risks-rise?ifp=0&app=1

 

•Market Quick Glance

-Indices:

Here are the year-to-date performance figures for the major indices through April 9, 2016, according to Bloomberg. To provide a longer performance perspective, 1-year returns have been added.

Overall it was a losing ground week for stocks as each of the following indices had lower performance returns at the end of this week than they had the previous week:

Dow Jones +1.64% YTD

1 yr Rtn -0.10%

-S&P 500 +0.81% YTD

1 yr Rtn -0.46%

NASDAQ -2.74% YTD—through 4/8/16

1 yr Rtn -1.63%

-Russell 2000 -2.99% YTD—through 4/8/16

1 yr Rtn -11.96%

 

-Mutual funds

Through Thursday, April 7, 2016 the average U.S.Diversified Equity Fund was down1.62 percent year-to-date, according to Lipper. The week before, the average year-to-date return for funds under this heading was only down 0.39 percent.

Small-Cap Growth Funds experienced the biggest losses—down on average 5.74 percent. Equity Income Funds had the highest returns: up 1.72 percent, year-to-date.

Precious Metals Funds continue to rock under the Sector Equity Funds heading. They gained more than 4 percent and closed the week up on average 46.73 percent y-t-d.

Health/Biotechnology Funds got healthier, the average y-t-d performance now off only 10.60 percent. And Global Health/Biotechnology Funds improved as well, now at -9.14 percent.

Under the World Equity Funds heading, Latin American Funds are the big performance winners—now up on average 10.40 percent y-t-d. Japanese Funds, the biggest losers, down 8.66 percent on average.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for weekly updates to see how equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

Lipper’s weekly performance figures for stock and fixed-income funds are at www.allaboutfunds.com in the left column on the home page.

  • So sad….

According to the WSJ, the median pay for 300 of America’s largest corporate CEOs fell  by $400,000 last year. Boohoo. Boohoo.

That’s a drop of 3.8 percent for these top dogs who had a median income of only $10.8 million in 2015—- down from the 2014 level of $11.2 million.

Oh how my heart breaks for these select few most of whom,  I would guess,  have clearly forgotten the value of $1  as that level of income translates to about $900,000 a month.

One more thing: Oddly enough, $10.8 million is the same amount of money businessman Donald Trump loaned candidate Donald Trump during the last three moths of 2015 so businessman Donald Trump could run for president, according to USA TODAY.

BTW, the Donald’s loan is an interest free loan and doesn’t have to be paid back to businessman Donald Trump until December 31, 2016.

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