POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.17, 2018

                Thanksgiving at grandma’s 1976.

• Thanksgiving

If there were only one day each year I could pick to celebrate, it would be Thanksgiving.

No matter what one’s race, income level, age, gender, faith affiliation, political point of view, height, weight, married, single, with or without children or immediate family, it’s the one day when each of us can take the time to slow down, breathe deeply and think about all the things we have to be thankful for.

Whether it’s simply the fact that we are giving thanks for being alive, or celebrating our various good or bad fortunes, the value in giving thanks is as intimate and personal a gesture as mindful prayer is: Giving thanks transcends the material and enriches our souls in incalculable almost inconceivable ways.

So be thankful.  It’s a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

• Market Quick Glance

As you might expect, index returns weren’t so hot last week with both the DJIA and S&P 500 losing strength and returning to about half of what their year-to-date returns were two weeks ago.

For anyone curious about how past markets have performed during Thanksgiving week, the historic news is that typically it’s been  a good week for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.6% during the week, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Here’s a chart from them showing the data:

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018.

–DJIA 2.81% YTD down from the previous week’s return of 5.14%.

• 1 yr Rtn 8.33% from the previous week 10.77 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 2.34% YTD way up from last week’s 4.02%

• 1 yr. Rtn 6.10% down from last week’s 7.60%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 4.99% YTD way down from last week’s 7.29%

• 1yr Rtn 6.69% up a bit from last week’s 9.73%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.52% YTD back to underwater from last week’s 0.91%

• 1yr Rtn 2.73% down a lot from last week’s 5.05%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Predictions

It’s started.

Talking heads typically begin mouthing off about what their next year market predictions are right after Thanksgiving.

I’ve read a couple, so far. Some see the S&P 500 hitting 3,000. Others figure a recession is on the way. Still others say it’s gonna be a bad year for equities; a good year for fixed-income.

Personally, at this point in time, I don’t have an inkling of what’s to come in 2019.

But one thing I do know for sure—and can guarantee—it’s that tax time is right around the corner. Making sure your investment ducks are in a row and what’s been bought and sold is clearly documented.

Trump’s tax plan will no doubt disappoint  millions of individual investors and delight a few. To help plan your tax future, take a look at IRS Publication 5307, Tax Reform: Basics for individuals and Families.

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POCKETBOOK:Week ending Sept.17,2016

• 
• Guns and suicides

Where ever you stand on gun control, there is no denying the fact that guns kill. It’s like the reason they were created.

On that note, from Bloomberg.com comes this:

” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there are about 11,000 firearm homicides a year and some 21,000 firearm suicides. In terms of sheer mortality, gun suicide is a bigger problem than gun homicide.”

• Market Quick Glance

At the close of business on Friday, Sept 16, 2016, all four indices had performed better than the week before with Nasdaq gaining the most.

According to Bloomberg, below are last week’s closing YTD performance numbers of four popular US indices along with 1-year performance figures.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones +6.13% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +13.61%

-S&P 500 +6.34% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +11.67%

–NASDAQ +5.77% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +10.12%

–Russell 2000 +8.96% YTD

• 1yr Rtn +6.90%

 

-Mutual funds

At the close of business on Thursday, September 15, 2016, the average YTD return of U.S.Diversified Equity Funds had lost ground from the previous week and ended the week +4.97%, according to Lipper.

Look back over the past year and the average total 52- week YTD return was 4.09%.

World Equity Funds, on average, are up 5.22%.  Latin American Funds lead the way, up 30.97% on average, followed by Emerging Markets Funds, up 12.38% and then India Region Funds, up 11.20%.

Slide into income and World Income Funds, Lipper tracks 802 of them, were up on average 9.55%.

Wondering how best to use Lipper’s fund performance figures? Use their YTD returns as a guideline for how your individual fund(s) are performing. For instance, the average stock fund is up about 6.5 percent so far this year. Are your stock funds doing better or worse than that?

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for weekly updates to see how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

Lipper’s weekly performance figures for stock and fixed-income funds are at www.allaboutfunds.com in the left column on the home page.

• Dubious Dividends

I’m a big fan of stocks that pay dividends to their shareholders. Invest in companies that have a long history of paying them and this old-fashioned widows-and-orphans kind of investment strategy can reward shareholders handsomely.

But dividends don’t come with guarantees. The companies that pay them aren’t required to make that promise. And, can change their mind about how much gets paid at any time.

That’s something to keep in mind when hunting for dividend paying stocks to purchase.

Louis Navellier brought that point home in a current email in which he wrote: “Of the 1,500 dividend paying stocks in the market, a unbelievable 313 companies cut their dividends in the first half of 2016. That’s 1 out of every 5 dividend stocks CUTTING their dividend….”

This money pro is anticipating more cuts from dividend paying companies this year. Including companies included in  ETFs and  REITs .

So what can you do if you’re a divie investor?

In a word “homework.”

The dividend investing strategy remains to be a sound one but learning as much as you can about the company that pays the dividend, its history of dividend payment, current financial picture and future growth prospects all need to be reviewed and considered.

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