POCKETBOOK Week Ending Jan. 11, 2019

 

As for the market’s direction, could it be a bear in wedding dress clothing? Time will tell.

 

• Credit Card Debt

Put aside the fact that America’s national debt has risen by huge leaps and bounds under the current administration, what may or may not surprise you is that personal credit card debt has risen too.

According to TheBalance.com, U.S. consumers now have acquired over $1 trillion in credit card debt. Divide that by the number of households in the country and that breaks down to $5,700 in debt per household.

But wait, there’s more: Look at just the households that already have credit card debt and the average debt for those households is heading for $10,000, ($9.333), according to ValuePenguin.

All of which makes me wonder about how really great is this economy that you hear so much about. Or the fabulous job numbers. Or, the low inflation.

Something does add up.

 

• Market Quick Glance

For one week there were positive signs of life on Wall Street as all three indices followed here showed some nice one week gains.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Jan. 11, 2019.

–DJIA 2.87% YTD way up from the previous week’s 0.45%.

• 1 yr. Rtn -6.17% improved from the previous week -6.55%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 3.57% YTD up from last week’s 1.00%

• 1 yr. Rtn -6.19% improved from last week’s -7.05%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 5.07% YTD way up from last week’s 1.56%

• 1yr Rtn -3.33% improved from last week’s -4.79%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Looking up.

At the close of business on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019, the total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 4.70%, according to Lipper.

Looking at the fund types with the highest year-to-date gains under the various headings shows the following:

-U.S. Diversified Equity Funds average, 4.70%; highest Equity Leveraged Funds, 11.08%; lowest, Dedicated Short Bias Funds, -8.88%

-Sector Equity Funds average 4.88%; highest Energy MLP Funds, 11.74%; lowest Alternative Managed Funds, -2.20%

-World Equity Funds average 4.07%; highest Latin American Funds, 9.01%; lowest India Region Funds, -1.23%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Banking on banks

Turns out, 2018 was a great year for banks if being a great year means that none failed.

CNBC reported “ 2018 was the first year since 2006 and only the third since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created in 1933 that a calendar year passed without a bank failure, according to Bloomberg.”

FYI, the peak year for failures was 2010 when 157 institutions bellied up. And during the savings and loan crisis, in 1989 there were 534 lenders that failed.

 

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending June 9, 2018

Telling lines.

• Fickle trickle

Funny how the average guy and gal have to use a magnifying glass to see the effect of Trump’s trickle down economic policies in their day-to-day lives.

Yes, businesses are expanding, the unemployment rate is down and the stock market has yet to stumble and fall. But unless you’re in the top 10 percent of wage earners, odds are your salary hasn’t increased much over the past couple of years.

Wealth equality in the U.S. is and has been a rising problem for decades. Statistica.com reported that in 2017, the lower-income 50 percent of the population owned about 1.1% of total wealth while that sliver of the top 1% owned 35% of it.

That spread doesn’t bode well for the majority of Americans who hope and believe that their hard work will come with huge financial rewards for them and their families in the coming years. But while hard work is a virtue in itself, it comes with no guarantees of everyone becoming a multi-millionaire.

That said, every working person can build a nest egg. How big that nest egg grows to depends more on goal-setting, focus and perseverance than it does most everything else—including market conditions and government policies.

 

• Market Quick Glance

Last week, NASDAQ made the greatest gains, now up over 10% for the year, behind it was the Russell 2000 with a year-to-date return of nearly 9%.

So it continues to be a kinda sorta small-cap world.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, June 8, 2018.

–DJIA 2.42% YTD  up again and a lot from the previous minus week’s close of -0.34%

• 1 yr Rtn 19.52% down from the previous week’s 16.51%

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 3.94% YTD up from last week’s 2.28%

• 1 yr Rtn 14.19% up from last week’s 12.53%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ 10.75% YTD up from last week’s 9.43%

• 1yr Rtn 20.94% up a hair from last week’s 20.93%

NASDAQ reached a brand new all-time high on March 13, 2018 of 7,637.27. The previous high was reached on March 9, 2018 of 7,560.81.

 

-Russell 2000 8.92% YTD up from last week’s 7.32%

• 1yr Rtn 18.15% up from last week’s 18.05%

The Russell 2000 reached an all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.

 

-Mutual funds

Following the indices returns, the total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading enjoyed an improved average y-t-d return–it was  5.11% at the close of business on Thursday, June 7, 2018, according to Lipper. That’s up a lot from the previous week’s average total return of 2.84%.

In the big time skids arena this year are Latin American Funds. Of the 33 that Lipper tracks, the y-t-d average total return was underwater at -12.00%.

Another of the  World Equity Funds that haven’t fared well so far this year was India Funds, -7.50%. And in third underwater place Emerging Markets Funds, -1.38%.

Overall, World Equity Funds are up 0.90%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Recession ahead? Yes. Sometime.

Lots of chatting about an upcoming recession. Comedian and political commentator Bill Maher even put his two cents worth in the other night with respect to it.

Not in favor of his words. Then again, his point is well taken as American voters have a historic tendency to vote with respect to how fat their pocketbooks are. So a recession happening prior to voting time could have a big impact in taking Trump out of office.

That said, recessions happen. They are a natural part of our economic world. Always have been. Always will be.

That means, it should come as no surprise at all to read that economists at the National Association of Business Economics are foreseeing a recession beginning next year or in early 2020.

And why do they think that? Well, after a steaming economy and a bull market running something like 9,10,11 years or so means it’s a sooner-or-later, for sure, natural event that’s gonna happen. Sometime.

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POCKETBOOK:Week ending March 4, 2017

• A winning high in no time at all.

 It only took 24 days for the DJIA to gain 1000 points  when it closed for the first time over 2100.

The only other time that has happened in the history of the DJIA was in 1999 when the Dow rose from 10,000 to 11,000. And that was during the internet boom, according to CBSMoneyWatch.

 

• Market Quick Glance

 More ups. More records. Even a birthday…..

Let’s begin with the birthday. On Saturday, March 4, 2017, the S&P 500—-the world’s biggest stock market index—-turned 60!

Investors turn to the S&P 500 index because it provides them with a better overall look at how large-cap stocks are doing than the snapshot the 30 stocks that make up the DJIA do.

Back to the mores….last week  still more highs for the major indices were reached as the  week  came to a close. Details below.

Below are the weekly and 52-week performance results— including the dates each has reached its high according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending March 3, 2017.

-Indices:

-Dow Jones + 6.29% YTD, up from last week’s 5.36%

• 1yr Rtn +23.97% down from last week’s 26.31%

The DJIA reached a 52-week high of 21,169.11 on March 3, 2017. (Previous all-time high of 20,840.7 was reached on Feb. 23, 2017.)

 

-S&P 500 +6.44% YTD up from last week’s 5.74%

• 1yr Rtn +19.55% down from last week’s +22.67 %

The S&P 500 reached a 52-week high of 2,400.98 on March 1, 2017. (Previous all-time high of 2,368.26 was reached on Feb. 23, 2017.)

 

-NASDAQ +9.06% YTD up from last week’s +8.59%

• 1yr Rtn +24.71% down a lot from last week’s 28.68%

The Nasdaq reached a 52-week high and its all-time of 5,911,79 on March 1, 2017. (Previous all-time high of of 5,867.89 was reached on Feb. 21, 2017.)

 

–Russell 2000 +2,73 YTD% down a hair from last week’s +2.76 %

• 1yr Rtn +29.56% down considerably from last week’s +36.44 %

The Russell 2000 reached its 52-week high and its all time high of 1, 414.82 on March 1, 2017.( Previous all-time high of 1,410.04 was reached on on Feb.21, 2107.)

 

-Mutual funds

Still on the upswing.

The average total return for U.S. Diversified Equity Funds closed up at 5.22% at the close of business on Thursday, March 2, 2017, according to Lipper. That’s up from the previous week’s close of 4.82%.

World Equity Funds were up on average 6.16% with India Region and Latin American Funds continuing to lead the way— up 11.97% and 10.41% respectively, on average.

Looking at the 25 largest mutual funds around (based upon assets), PowerSharesQQQ Trust1 was up the most at 10.50% year-to-date, as of March 2, 2107. Next in performance line  iShares Russ 1000 Gr ETF, up 8.43% and then the American Funds Growth:A, up 7.68%.

The puniest returns out of this group were seen in funds with substantial fixed-income holdings: As in the iShares: Core US Agg Bond fund, up 0.18; the DoubleLine: Total Return; I shares, up 0.24%; and the Met West: Total Return up 0.33%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Like defense?

If you’re a believer that the new administration is going to increase defense spending big time in the near future, Morningstar covers a half-dozen defence contractor companies that you might to investigate as well.

The Chicago-based investment research group considers these companies as “fairly valued to overvalued” and include Lockheed Martin (LMT); Northrop Grumman (NOC); Raytheon (RTN); General Dynamics (GD); Boeing (BA) and L3 Technologies (LLL).

Make sure to do your own research and homework before investing in these companies. Or anything, for that matter.

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