Tag Archives: index returns

POCKETBOOK:Week ending March 3, 2018

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  • Another bull’s birthday

The bull market is going to be 9 this week. In dog years that would be 63 in human years. Okay okay—I know there’s nothing that really connects bulls with dogs and humans but then again, from a human’s point of view, 63 represents an age of maturity. One, that some figure, is an age worthy of retirement.

A look back at the historic lengths of  bull markets between 1926 through 2017 represented by  S&P 500 Index total returns reveals that a bull market lasts on average  9 years, according to FirstTrust (FTPortfolios.com). That puts this market in  watch-for-bears territory.

The longest bull market ,relating to that same index, lasted 13.9 years (from the 1930s-early 1940s), with an average annualized rate of return of 17.2%.  The shortest, 2.5 years in the early 1970s in which the average annualized gain was 25.3%.

Clearly, this bull market has been running a long time but more importantly,  bulls don’t run forever.

Then again, this same source reveals that S&P500 Index  bear markets have a history of being much shorter in length averaging only 1.4 years.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Back peddling and who knows for how long.

If, at the beginning of this year, you invested into an S&P 500 index fund or one that tracks the Russell 2000 you’ve lost money. Not so with the Nasdaq.

Who knows what the year-to-date returns will be by the end of this week but here’s a bet worth considering: If Trump continues to be hell-bent on imposing tariffs on the steel and aluminum that the US imports, the market might have a hell-bent time of moving upward.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, March 3, 2018.

 

DJIA -0.73% YTD down and back into minus land–the previous week +2.02%  

  • 1 yr Rtn 16.83% down from the previous week’s 22.31%

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 +0.66% YTD significantly down from last week’s 2.76%

  • 1 yr Rtn +12.99% down from last week’s 16.40%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ +5.13 YTD down from last week’s 6.29%

  • 1yr Rtn +23.83% down from last week’s 27.74%

Nasdaq latest new all-time high of 7,505.77 was reached on January 26, 2018. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 7,336.38.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.15%YTD down into minus land from last week’s 0.89%

  • 1yr Rtn +9.85% down from last week’s +11.08%

The Russell 2000 reached an all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.

 

-Mutual funds

Reflecting a not-so-hot week for stocks, the year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds that fall under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was -0.31% at the close of business on Thursday, March 2, 2018, according to Lipper.

Near the end of 2017, many talking heads were projecting that markets outside of the U.S. were going to be the ones likely to score well this year. That however, hasn’t necessarily been the case. For instance, the year-to-date return for the average World Equity Fund was 0.11% as of Thursday’s close. There are 4,453 funds that fall under that broad heading.

Areas doing well and not-so-well under that heading include: Latin American Funds and China Region Funds, up 6.28% and3.66% respectively, on average. And, on the other hand,  India Region Funds and Global Equity Income Funds were down on average -5.40% and -2.08% respectively.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Kohl’s and Aldi a match made in heaven?

There’s a maybe unlikely new couple coming to town: Kohl’s, the retailer that sends out so many discount coupons to their credit card holders that you wonder how in the world they make any money—-and Aldi, the German grocer that sells its food stuff and goodies at prices that don’t need any coupons to get shoppers into their stores.

The deal is, Kohl’s has too many stores with too much space in them and has plans to cut the size of its footprints, while Aldi is expected to open 900 new stores over the next five years, according to USA Today.

So,  the idea is to lob off some of existing Kolh’s stores space to make Aldi its next door neighbor.

If you’re a shopper of both, the idea makes sense. If you’re not, it might be time to try shopping at either.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Dec. 29, 2017

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  • Not every stock makes money

One of the honest-to-goodness realities of investing in stocks is that all stocks don’t make their shareholders money. In fact, every year—including in 2017— there are some winning doozies and some losing doozies.

Louis Navellier, in a recent email, included a listing of companies in which shares lost money and were on his “sell” list in 2017. Some included General Electric, down -43%, AmTrust Financial Services, down 63% and L Brands, down -44%.

Some of the winners on his “buy” list included TSL Education Group, up 150%, Align Technologies, up 146% and Burlington Stores, up 30%.

The way I see it, if your investments were up 10% or more, consider it a profitable year.

Wishing you another lucky year in 2018.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

After a year in which the equity market indices continued to make new highs and new highs and new highs, many investors were smiling all the way to the bank. That said, during the last week of 2017, all four indices followed below lost ground. Not a lot of ground—but all wound up lower than they had at the end of the previous week.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Dec. 29, 2017.

DJIA +25.08% YTD down from last week’s 25.26%.

  • 1 yr Rtn +24.72% up from last week’s 24.27%

The last new high for the DJIA was reached on December 18, 2017 of 24,876.07.

 

-S&P 500 +19.85% YTD down from last week’s 19.85%.

  • 1yr Rtn +18.87% up from last week’s +18.68%

The S&P 500 reached its latest new high on December 18, 2017 of 2,694.97.

 

-NASDAQ +28.24% YTD down from last week’s +29.29%.

  • 1yr Rtn +27.09% down from last week’s 27.77%

Nasdaq reached its latest new high of 7,003.89 on December 18, 2017.

 

-Russell 2000 +13.14%YTD down from last week’s +13.69%

1yr Rtn +12.64% down from last week’s +13.23%

The Russell 2000 reached its last new all-time high on December 4, 2017 of 1,559.61.

 

-Mutual funds

Although the final year-end numbers for mutual funds has yet to be published, the year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds that fall under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading were still charming.

On the day before the 2017 trading year ended, Thursday, December 28, 2017, the average return was 18.91%, according to Lipper. That’s up from the close on Thursday of the previous week of 18.57%.

Below are the best and worst average returns for the fund types that fall under the Lipper’s four broad equity fund category headings through 12/28/17:

  • U.S. Diversified Equity Funds

-best: Equity Leverage Funds, average +42.86%

-worst: Alternative Equity Market Neutral Funds, -0.06%

 

  • Sector Equity Funds

-best: Global Science/Technology Funds, +44.61%

-worst: Energy MLP Funds, -5.95%

 

  • World Equity Funds

-best: China Region Funds, +43.34%

-worst: Global Equity Income Funds, +17.30

 

  • Mixed Asset Funds

-best: Mixed-Asset Target 2055+Funds,+21.48%

-worst: Alternative Multi-Strategy Funds, +4.80%

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Market volatility

2017 was a rewarding one for many. It was also a year in which the markets didn’t jump around as much as one might remember.

In fact, according to a recent SeekingAlpha story by Lance Roberts, the DJIA “enjoyed less adversity in 2017 than any other year in history going back over 100 years, (beginning data in 1915).”

Here’s hoping that 2018 is as easy going a year.

Happy New Year!

 

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