POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.17, 2018

                Thanksgiving at grandma’s 1976.

• Thanksgiving

If there were only one day each year I could pick to celebrate, it would be Thanksgiving.

No matter what one’s race, income level, age, gender, faith affiliation, political point of view, height, weight, married, single, with or without children or immediate family, it’s the one day when each of us can take the time to slow down, breathe deeply and think about all the things we have to be thankful for.

Whether it’s simply the fact that we are giving thanks for being alive, or celebrating our various good or bad fortunes, the value in giving thanks is as intimate and personal a gesture as mindful prayer is: Giving thanks transcends the material and enriches our souls in incalculable almost inconceivable ways.

So be thankful.  It’s a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

• Market Quick Glance

As you might expect, index returns weren’t so hot last week with both the DJIA and S&P 500 losing strength and returning to about half of what their year-to-date returns were two weeks ago.

For anyone curious about how past markets have performed during Thanksgiving week, the historic news is that typically it’s been  a good week for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.6% during the week, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Here’s a chart from them showing the data:

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018.

–DJIA 2.81% YTD down from the previous week’s return of 5.14%.

• 1 yr Rtn 8.33% from the previous week 10.77 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 2.34% YTD way up from last week’s 4.02%

• 1 yr. Rtn 6.10% down from last week’s 7.60%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 4.99% YTD way down from last week’s 7.29%

• 1yr Rtn 6.69% up a bit from last week’s 9.73%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.52% YTD back to underwater from last week’s 0.91%

• 1yr Rtn 2.73% down a lot from last week’s 5.05%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Predictions

It’s started.

Talking heads typically begin mouthing off about what their next year market predictions are right after Thanksgiving.

I’ve read a couple, so far. Some see the S&P 500 hitting 3,000. Others figure a recession is on the way. Still others say it’s gonna be a bad year for equities; a good year for fixed-income.

Personally, at this point in time, I don’t have an inkling of what’s to come in 2019.

But one thing I do know for sure—and can guarantee—it’s that tax time is right around the corner. Making sure your investment ducks are in a row and what’s been bought and sold is clearly documented.

Trump’s tax plan will no doubt disappoint  millions of individual investors and delight a few. To help plan your tax future, take a look at IRS Publication 5307, Tax Reform: Basics for individuals and Families.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Sept. 15, 2017

 

• Electric power

My power was out from Sunday thru late Wednesday afternoon. It’s a hot, sweaty and costly drag when that happens. In addition to no breezes, tossing out all refrigerated and frozen foods that warmed and thawed in my coolers, the one who suffered the most was my dog, Gracie. Now 13 and 3/4s years old, Tuesday night she barely slept panting the night away. I apologized to her which may have been humanly kind but don’t think those words mattered much to her. She was hot. And old. And suffering.

So, early the next morning I took her for an extended ride in my car, air conditioning blasting. And then with me to the 12:05 service at Bethesda-by-the-Sea Episcopal Church in Palm Beach. We made it through the police check-points on the island after telling those guarding the town that I was going to church.

Grace is a good church-going dog. She’s been to this place for services a few times before for the Blessing of the Animals service and knew the drill: Go to the grass bathroom before entering the church, try not to bark and spread out as much as you’d like on the cool wooden pews.

For an hour she was much happier thanks to the generator powering the AC at Bethesda.

Speaking of power, I have a friend in Tavernier (one of the Florida Keys) whose home never lost its power during or after  Hurricane Irma.

Amazing.

 

• Market Quick Glance

It had been about seven weeks since the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ had reached new all-time highs. But at the close of business on Friday, September 15, 2017, all of that changed as each of those indices scored again.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, Sept 15, 2017.

-DJIA +12.68 YTD a big jump up from last week’s 10.30%.

• 1 yr Rtn +22.27% down from last week’s 17.95%.

A new all-time high for the DJIA of 22,275.02 was reached on September 15, 2017.

Prior to that date, the DJIA most recent all-time high of 22,179.11 was reached on August 8, 2017 . Looking back six months, on March 1, the then all-time high on that date was 21,169.11.

 

-S&P 500 +11.68 % YTD way up from last week’s 9.94%.

• 1yr Rtn +16.44% up a lot from last week’s +12.84%

The S&P 500 reached a new high of 2,500.23 on September 15, 2017.

Prior to that date, its most recent all-time high was on August 8, 2017 at 2,490.87. And six months earlier, on March 1, 2017, that index closed at a then all-time high of 2,400.98.

 

-NASDAQ +19.79% YTD up from last week’s +18.15%.

• 1yr Rtn +22.84% down from last week’s 23.11%

The Nasdaq also reach a new all-time high on September 15, 2017 closing at 6,464.27.

Prior to that date, its most recent all-time high of 6,460.84 was reached on July 27, 2017. Looking back, on April 5, 2017 this index closed at 5,936.39.

 

-Russell 2000 +5.50% YTD up from last week’s +4.16%.

• 1yr Rtn +16.68% up a heap from last week’s +11.21%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high on July 25, 2017 of 1,452.09.

(Previous highs include: 1,452.05 on July 21, 2017; 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017; 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

Good news with respect to the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested return performance for equity funds falling under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading: On Thursday, September 14, 2017, equity funds y-t-d return average was 10.11%—that’s up from the previous week’s close of 8.60%, according to Lipper.

If you’re a fan or investor in the largest funds around some of the big ones have returned big  returns.

Four of them include: Vanguard FTSE Emg Mkt ETF, 25.98%; Fidelity Contrafund, 23.20%; Dodge & Cox Intl Stock, 21.97%; and the Vanguard Total 1 Stock, 21.26%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Hacked

You’ve heard me write this before and I’ll continue to mention it as there is some truth to it:  My now 102-year old Auntie Pat said– decades ago– that the internet was the devil’s work.

Recently her point  is proven to hold water  when it comes to the Dark Web and the hacking of  personal financial on-line accounts, including those of banks and credit rating agencies.

Personally, I’ve had my identity stolen and have been a victim of mail-fraud hacking. Both no fun to deal with or correct.

Speaking of correcting a hacking problem, I’m not 100% sure that once any of your accounts have been hacked that your Social Security Number, and various health-related accounts or credit or debt accounts in your name, will ever be free from harm.

So, while a hacking experience can cost us plenty and take months to correct our credit score after our cards have been stolen and used to rack up sales we never made, it’s the high-end no-limit credit cards that hackers really like getting their hands on. According to Bloomberg.com, on the Dark Web a Platinum American Express card will sell for $15 to $20 while a regular MasterCard without a large limit for around $9.

Not much given all the aggravation it costs the card owner.

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