POCKETBOOK Week Ending Feb.22, 2019

 

The cost of stuff.

 

 

• Sage advice

When asked about a 10-year investment horizon, Warren Buffett was asked where he’d plop his money—stocks or bonds?

Buffett’s answer, according to CNBC.com was this: “If I had a choice today for a 10-year purchase of a 10-year bond at whatever it is…or buying the S&P 500 and holding it for 10 years, I’d buy the S&P.”

What do you think?

 

• Fidelity’s 401(k) balances

Having $100,000, or any six-figure sized 401(k), is a common goal for many who are saving for their retirement. And while it’s noble, truth is many of us are going to a seven-figure coffer to cover us for the 20, 30 or more years of retirement.

Fidelity is home to more than 16.2 million 401(k) accounts. I’m guessing, no two of them with the same account balances.

That said and if you’re curious, at the end of September 2018 the average balance in those accounts was $106,500.

But wait there’s more: We all aren’t average and a better look at the numbers is represented by the median size of those retirement accounts. (The median represents the middle between the high and the low balance.)

In that case, the figure changes precipitously resulting in a median figure amounting to tens of thousands of dollars less than the average figure: The median amount at that time was $24,800.

Feeling better?

 

• Market Quick Glance

Indices up last week….

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Feb.22, 2019.

–DJIA 11.59% YTD up from the previous week’s 10.96%.

• 1 yr. Rtn 4.28% up from the previous week 2.71%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-NASDAQ 13.45% YTD up from last week’s 12.62%

• 1yr Rtn 4.40% up from last week’s 2.98%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

Funds have enjoyed a big jump up from their  January 10 performance figures.

At the close of business on Thursday, Feb. 21, 2019, the year-to-date total return for the average stock fund under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 12.62%. That’s nearly 3x higher than the average return of 4.70% registered on Jan. 10, 2019, according to Lipper.

Looking at the fund types with the highest year-to-date gains under the various equity headings shows the following:

-The highest total return under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds umbrella was Equity Leveraged Funds, 23,76%; the lowest, Dedicated Short Bias Funds, -17.8%.

-The Sector Equity Funds group averaged 11.37%; the highest fund type under that category was Commodity Energy Funds, 17.21%; the lowest Alternative Managed Funds, -1.65%.

-World Equity Funds average 9.51%; the fund type with the highest ytd return was Global Small/Mid-Cap Funds, 12.97%; the lowest India Region Funds, -5.07%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Dec. 15, 2018

 

Folks  may be spending plenty this holiday season but according to a CNBC All-American Economic Survey our optimism about our economic  future has fallen.

 

• It’s a Global World of Worry

As money continues to be the value that rules the world, it ought to come as no surprise that when our equity markets are in the tank, so are many of those around the globe. Or visa versa.

“The market tensions we saw during this quarter were not an isolated event,” said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). BIS is an umbrella group for the world’s central banks.

Combine the fear of our Fed increasing interest rates, our soaring debt, trade tensions at home and abroad, political worries at home and abroad and it’s no wonder that stocks aren’t performing so hap-hap-happly this holiday season.

 

• Market Quick Glance

If the total value of your portfolio is positive so far this year, stand up and cheer. Then call your financial advisor, broker or whomever it is that’s managing your money and say thanks.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Dec. 14, 2018.

–DJIA -2.50% YTD down more from the previous week’s -1.34%.

• 1 yr. Rtn -1.67% way down from the previous week 0.73%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 -2.76% YTD down more from last week’s -1.52%

• 1 yr. Rtn -1.96%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 0.11% YTD down from last week’s 0.95%

• 1yr Rtn 0.79% way down from last week’s 2.30%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

 

-Mutual funds

And things keep getting ugly.

The average year-to-date total return for funds that fall under the heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Funds stood at -3.12% at the close of business on Thursday, December 13, 2018, according to Lipper. That’s down considerably from the previous week’s figure of -0.94%.

Of the 25 largest equity funds that Lipper tracks, total returns aren’t much sweeter. Even three of Vanguard’s funds have total returns deep in minus territory.

They include: Vanguard Tot I S: Investors, -12.15%; Vanguard Tot I S: Ins,-12.08; and Vanguard To IS :Adm, -12-13%.

The top two performing funds, y-t-d, among that list of 25 were the Fidelity Contrafund, 2.85% and American Funds Growth: A, 2.08%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Salt in a Wound

So you say you missed a chance to invest in Elon Musk’s Tesla?

Oh well, so did I.

But if either of us had plopped down  $1000 in TSLA eight years ago, in 2010, and had neither of us sold any portion of that investment, on  December 12, 2018, that 1000 bucks would  have turned into $21,000, according to CNBC.

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POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov. 3, 2018

Source: Cresset Wealth

Source: Cresset Wealth

 

• Our Economy

I know more than one investor who doesn’t believe the figures emphasizing how great our economy is, that the unemployment rate is as low as is  publicized and that all on Wall Street is hunky dory.

So in search of some easy to understand market commentary, I’ve turned to Cresset Wealth Advisors November 2018 Market Review.

Here is what Cresset’s CFA, Jack Ablin, wrote in it re the economy: “The US economy has been growing at a rate that is above potential. Its 2.5% potential GDP growth rate is derived from 0.7% labor force growth plus a 1.8% (generous) productivity rate. Current 3.5% annualized growth has been fueled by consumer demand. Government spending added 0.6% to growth, fixed investments flat-line.”

Re tariffs: “Tariff talk has had a deleterious impact on exports. This sector, which on average has added 0.5% to economic activity, dragged growth down 0.5% in Q2.”

The entire Cresset November Market Review is worth a read and available at cressetwealth.com. Check it out.

• Market Quick Glance

It was a week that brought some year-to-date returns up from underwater for the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Yahoo, for that. Whether that trend will continue, however, is still anybody’s guess.

But to cover our bases, lest we think the bull is back, here’s another look  at the following historic equity performance data from CNBC.com:

– Since World War II, the average correction for the S&P500 lasts 4 months and sees equities slide 13% before bottoming.

-Bear markets average a loss of 30.4% and last 13 months and takes stocks nearly 22 months, on average, to recover.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 2, 2018.

 

–DJIA 2.23% YTD up from the previous week’s return of -0.13%.

• 1 yr Rtn 7.46% up from the previous week 5.50 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 1.85% YTD up from last week’s -0.56%

• 1 yr. Rtn 5.55% up from last week’s 3.84%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 6.57% YTD up a lot from last week’s 3.82%

• 1yr Rtn 9.56% up a bit from last week’s 9.31%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 0.81% YTD up a lot from last week’s -3.37%

• 1yr Rtn 3.44% also up a lot from last week’s -0.91%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Equity funds have lost about half of their average year-to-date returns since October 18. And, at the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 1.37%, according to Lipper. That’s down from 2.36% reported on 10/18/18.

Where you want to have been invested most recently is in that large broad category of funds and not in funds that fall under the Sector Equity Funds heading— they are down at  -2.90% on average. Or in World Equity Funds, these babies are on average down at -9.46%.

World Income Funds have fared better, – 4.80% and Mixed Asset Funds -2.14% on average.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Got money? Maybe
  

The end of the third quarter—that would be the end of September 30— Fidelity delivered some sweet news for its investors. For instance:

• The average 401(k) balance hit a new high of $106,500, up 2.4% from Q2.
• The average individual retirement account averaged $111,000, up 3.8% from Q2.
• The number of 401(k) millionaires was up 41 percent from last year at the same time.
• And, the number of IRA millionaires was up 25 percent from last year.

Hope these account balances continue to flourish for Fidelityites.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Sept. 15, 2017

 

• Electric power

My power was out from Sunday thru late Wednesday afternoon. It’s a hot, sweaty and costly drag when that happens. In addition to no breezes, tossing out all refrigerated and frozen foods that warmed and thawed in my coolers, the one who suffered the most was my dog, Gracie. Now 13 and 3/4s years old, Tuesday night she barely slept panting the night away. I apologized to her which may have been humanly kind but don’t think those words mattered much to her. She was hot. And old. And suffering.

So, early the next morning I took her for an extended ride in my car, air conditioning blasting. And then with me to the 12:05 service at Bethesda-by-the-Sea Episcopal Church in Palm Beach. We made it through the police check-points on the island after telling those guarding the town that I was going to church.

Grace is a good church-going dog. She’s been to this place for services a few times before for the Blessing of the Animals service and knew the drill: Go to the grass bathroom before entering the church, try not to bark and spread out as much as you’d like on the cool wooden pews.

For an hour she was much happier thanks to the generator powering the AC at Bethesda.

Speaking of power, I have a friend in Tavernier (one of the Florida Keys) whose home never lost its power during or after  Hurricane Irma.

Amazing.

 

• Market Quick Glance

It had been about seven weeks since the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ had reached new all-time highs. But at the close of business on Friday, September 15, 2017, all of that changed as each of those indices scored again.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, Sept 15, 2017.

-DJIA +12.68 YTD a big jump up from last week’s 10.30%.

• 1 yr Rtn +22.27% down from last week’s 17.95%.

A new all-time high for the DJIA of 22,275.02 was reached on September 15, 2017.

Prior to that date, the DJIA most recent all-time high of 22,179.11 was reached on August 8, 2017 . Looking back six months, on March 1, the then all-time high on that date was 21,169.11.

 

-S&P 500 +11.68 % YTD way up from last week’s 9.94%.

• 1yr Rtn +16.44% up a lot from last week’s +12.84%

The S&P 500 reached a new high of 2,500.23 on September 15, 2017.

Prior to that date, its most recent all-time high was on August 8, 2017 at 2,490.87. And six months earlier, on March 1, 2017, that index closed at a then all-time high of 2,400.98.

 

-NASDAQ +19.79% YTD up from last week’s +18.15%.

• 1yr Rtn +22.84% down from last week’s 23.11%

The Nasdaq also reach a new all-time high on September 15, 2017 closing at 6,464.27.

Prior to that date, its most recent all-time high of 6,460.84 was reached on July 27, 2017. Looking back, on April 5, 2017 this index closed at 5,936.39.

 

-Russell 2000 +5.50% YTD up from last week’s +4.16%.

• 1yr Rtn +16.68% up a heap from last week’s +11.21%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high on July 25, 2017 of 1,452.09.

(Previous highs include: 1,452.05 on July 21, 2017; 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017; 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

Good news with respect to the year-to-date cumulative total reinvested return performance for equity funds falling under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading: On Thursday, September 14, 2017, equity funds y-t-d return average was 10.11%—that’s up from the previous week’s close of 8.60%, according to Lipper.

If you’re a fan or investor in the largest funds around some of the big ones have returned big  returns.

Four of them include: Vanguard FTSE Emg Mkt ETF, 25.98%; Fidelity Contrafund, 23.20%; Dodge & Cox Intl Stock, 21.97%; and the Vanguard Total 1 Stock, 21.26%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Hacked

You’ve heard me write this before and I’ll continue to mention it as there is some truth to it:  My now 102-year old Auntie Pat said– decades ago– that the internet was the devil’s work.

Recently her point  is proven to hold water  when it comes to the Dark Web and the hacking of  personal financial on-line accounts, including those of banks and credit rating agencies.

Personally, I’ve had my identity stolen and have been a victim of mail-fraud hacking. Both no fun to deal with or correct.

Speaking of correcting a hacking problem, I’m not 100% sure that once any of your accounts have been hacked that your Social Security Number, and various health-related accounts or credit or debt accounts in your name, will ever be free from harm.

So, while a hacking experience can cost us plenty and take months to correct our credit score after our cards have been stolen and used to rack up sales we never made, it’s the high-end no-limit credit cards that hackers really like getting their hands on. According to Bloomberg.com, on the Dark Web a Platinum American Express card will sell for $15 to $20 while a regular MasterCard without a large limit for around $9.

Not much given all the aggravation it costs the card owner.

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