POCKETBOOK Week Ending Nov.17, 2018

                Thanksgiving at grandma’s 1976.

• Thanksgiving

If there were only one day each year I could pick to celebrate, it would be Thanksgiving.

No matter what one’s race, income level, age, gender, faith affiliation, political point of view, height, weight, married, single, with or without children or immediate family, it’s the one day when each of us can take the time to slow down, breathe deeply and think about all the things we have to be thankful for.

Whether it’s simply the fact that we are giving thanks for being alive, or celebrating our various good or bad fortunes, the value in giving thanks is as intimate and personal a gesture as mindful prayer is: Giving thanks transcends the material and enriches our souls in incalculable almost inconceivable ways.

So be thankful.  It’s a good thing.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

• Market Quick Glance

As you might expect, index returns weren’t so hot last week with both the DJIA and S&P 500 losing strength and returning to about half of what their year-to-date returns were two weeks ago.

For anyone curious about how past markets have performed during Thanksgiving week, the historic news is that typically it’s been  a good week for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.6% during the week, according to the Bespoke Investment Group. Here’s a chart from them showing the data:

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16, 2018.

–DJIA 2.81% YTD down from the previous week’s return of 5.14%.

• 1 yr Rtn 8.33% from the previous week 10.77 %

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 2.34% YTD way up from last week’s 4.02%

• 1 yr. Rtn 6.10% down from last week’s 7.60%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 4.99% YTD way down from last week’s 7.29%

• 1yr Rtn 6.69% up a bit from last week’s 9.73%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Russell 2000 -0.52% YTD back to underwater from last week’s 0.91%

• 1yr Rtn 2.73% down a lot from last week’s 5.05%

The Russell 2000 reached a BRAND NEW 52-week ALL-TIME HIGH on August 31, 2018 of 1,742.09. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 1,726.97.

 

-Mutual funds

Slip sliding away…..

At the close of business on Thursday, Nov. 15, 2018, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 0.68%—- way down from the previous week’s figure of 3.33%, according to Lipper.

But, compare that to what the average year-to-date return was for World Equity Funds, down in minus-land almost 10% (-9.96% to be exact) and our home grown based equity fund returns don’t look so bad.

Most deeply hit among World Fund types were India Region Funds, -17.97%, China Region Funds, -15.48%, and Pacific Ex-Japan Funds, -14.85%.

And I remember when earlier this year and about this same time last year, talking heads were expecting world funds to way outperform our US markets. Ooops.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Predictions

It’s started.

Talking heads typically begin mouthing off about what their next year market predictions are right after Thanksgiving.

I’ve read a couple, so far. Some see the S&P 500 hitting 3,000. Others figure a recession is on the way. Still others say it’s gonna be a bad year for equities; a good year for fixed-income.

Personally, at this point in time, I don’t have an inkling of what’s to come in 2019.

But one thing I do know for sure—and can guarantee—it’s that tax time is right around the corner. Making sure your investment ducks are in a row and what’s been bought and sold is clearly documented.

Trump’s tax plan will no doubt disappoint  millions of individual investors and delight a few. To help plan your tax future, take a look at IRS Publication 5307, Tax Reform: Basics for individuals and Families.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Aug.11, 2018

•Grifter

Have to admit, I never really thought much about what a grifter was until I’d heard that Wilbur Ross, our United States Secretary of Commerce, was described as one. The 80-year old Jr., is supposed to be one of the richest members in Trump’s cabinet, who somehow didn’t divest all of his securities before accepting the position. As for how he accumulated all of his wealth, that Forbes estimates it to be around $700 million, all sorts of reasons swirl—including those resulting from the talents of a grifter.

From a Forbes story written by Dan Alexander published earlier this month: “If even half of the accusations are legitimate, the current United States secretary of commerce could rank among the biggest grifters in American history.”

Who knows if that’s true or not. But, what does have a foundation in the truth is what a grifter is. Here are two definitions:

• From www. vocabulary.com :” If there’s one type of person you don’t want to trust, it’s a grifter: someone who cheats others out of money. Grifters are also known as chiselers, defrauders, gougers, scammers, swindlers, and flim-flam men. Selling a bridge and starting a Ponzi scheme are things a grifter might do.”
• From http://www.merriam-webster.com :”Grift” was born in the argot of the underworld, a realm in which a “grifter” might be a pickpocket, a crooked gambler, or a confidence man-any criminal who relied on skill and wits rather than physical violence-and to be “on the grift” was to make a living by stings and clever thefts.”

For some reason, I can’t help but think that their may be a few more grifters roaming around in Trump’s White House world.

 

• Market Quick Glance

An upper of a week for all four indices here.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000— including the dates each reached new highs. Data if according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Aug.10, 2018.

–DJIA 2.40% YTD down from previous week’s return of 3.01%

•1 yr Rtn 15.88% up the previous week’s 15.60 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 5.97% YTD down from last week’s 6.24%

• 1 yr Rtn 16.06% up from last week’s 14.89%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ 13.55% YTD up from last week’s 13.16%

• 1yr Rtn 26.09% up from last week’s 23.21%

Nasdaq reached a new 52-week high on July 25, 2081 of 7,933.32. The previous high was reached on July 17, 2018 of 7,867.15.

 

-Russell 2000 9.85% YTD up from last week’s 8.98%

• 1yr Rtn 22.90% up from last week’s 19.08%

The Russell 2000 reached a new 52-week high on July 10, 2018 of 1,708.56. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1.

 

-Mutual funds

A jump up for the week’s average from two weeks ago. Then, the average total return for funds that fall under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was 6.97%. At the close of business on Thursday, August 9, 2018 that average return had moved ahead to 7.18%, according to Lipper.

Small-Cap Growth Funds was the group with the best average performance for the 592 funds that Lipper tracks under that heading — average total return of 16.48%.

Now is as good a time as any to that a look back at how equity  funds have performed over the past 52 week, 2 years, 3 years and 5 years. And, Small-Cap Growth Funds have done well, from this perspective. From the most recent (52 weeks) to the longest, (5 years) that group’s average performance was: 32.42%; 22.58%; 12.84%; and 11.99%.

Compare that with the average total returns for all of the U.S. Diversify Equity Funds and the performance numbers look as follows: 18.40%; 15.34%; 10.14% and 10.15%.

Small-Cap Growth Funds has outperformed in all.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• Turkeys

 Remember the old 1970s and 1980s saying, “Don’t let the turkeys get you down”?

Back then the turkey part had nothing to do with the country of Turkey. It referred to dealing with jerks and suggested not to let those who can wreck our day do just that.

Today, it’s the value of Turkey’s withering currency and their economic problems that have been playing havoc with our markets.

Combine that with President Trump’s desire to impose tariffs on pretty much everything, and perhaps it’s time to bring back that old saying.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending Feb.2, 2018

•2.5%—ya buy 2% milk, don’t ya?

Readers of this site know that I’ve been posting “be careful”  kinds of blogs for more than a year now. Well, maybe forever. That might be making me a glass half-empty kind of gal but I see it as being realistic more than anything else.

Why? Because if anyone tells you that there is no risk to investing in equities they’d be lying and you’d be a fool to believe them.

Investing in stocks has always been risky with no guarantees of making a profit no matter what any mountain charts look like.

A mountain chart, in case you’ve forgotten, is a chart that looks at the performance of  say a stock or  popular index such as the DJIA  over an extended period of time—like since 1920, or 1990 or 2000 or 2008 until now. There’s no standard begin time when designing a mountain chart but the end is typically now.

The purpose of a mountain chart is to show that yes indeedy stock prices have increased over the long haul. And, yes indeedy trends both up and down can be seen on it. And yes indeedy markets do recover.

That said, the 2.5% fall of the DJIA on Friday, Feb 2, 2018 is no big deal if it’s a onsey. If that fall is the beginning of a trend, unfortunately, that’s something no one knows ahead of time.

So, who knows what this week will bring? But, if Merrill Lynch’s bull-bear indicator —which has been correct in predicting 11 out of the 11 U.S. stock market corrections since 2002—is correct again, it’s now sending out a “sell” signal.

We shall see.

 

• Market Quick Glance

All four of the indices followed here saw their year-to-date returns suffer seriously—like nearly halved– when the markets closed on Friday. The worst hit was to the Russell 2000—it lost nearly all the positive ground  made this year.

The DJIA dropped nearly 666 points on Friday, Feb. 2, 2018—a rare occasion and the sixth-worse decline in the Dow’s nearly 122 year history.

A closer historical look reveals that a decline of over 500 points for the DJIA in one day has happened 17 times since 1993, according to Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool CNBC referenced in a story.

Using that same tool, the Dow rose 1.5% on average, the day after that kind of fall with a 65% chance of recovery.

If you’re looking for some investment advice here, I’d suggest remembering that, as with all things in life, everything changes. And profits are best taken for real and not merely seen on paper.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Feb. 2, 2018.

 

–DJIA +3.24% YTD down seriously from last week’s 7.28%  

• 1 yr Rtn +28.34% down from last week’s 32.42%

No new high for the DJIA. The last one was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 +3.31% YTD down seriously from last week’s 7.45%

• 1 yr Rtn +21.10% down from last week’s 25.09%

No new high for the S&P 500 Index. The last one was reached on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ +4.89 YTD down seriously from last week’s 8.73%

• 1yr Rtn +28.47% down from last week’s 32.72%

Nasdaq latest new all-time high of 7,505.77 was reached on January 26, 2018. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 7,336.38.

 

-Russell 2000 0.77%YTD down bad from last week’s 4.72%

• 1yr Rtn +13.99% down a pinch from last week’s +16.90%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.

 

-Mutual funds

After up comes down.

As you would expect, on Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018, the year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds that fall under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading stood at +4.44%. That’s down from the +5.32 % posted one week earlier.

To show how quickly things can change, below are the three fund types that have enjoyed positive y-t-d return so far this year under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds broad heading. Here is how their y-t-date average returns have changed from one week to the next to the next to the next:

-Equity Leverage Funds: +9.43% (2/1/18): the week before it, +12.08%: and the week prior, +8.37 %.

-Large-Cap Growth Funds: +7.64%(2/1/18); the week before, +8.00%; and the week prior, +6.06%.

-Multi-Cap Growth Funds:+ 6.96% (2/1/18); the week before, +7.47%; and the week prior, +5.59%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

• REPEAT: Consider a stop-loss

A few weeks ago I wrote about how a falling dollar isn’t typically a great economic indicator, nor is the fact that credit card balances are increasing and savings rates declining. Throw in a rising interest rate environment and all can point to a not-so-hot performing stock market.

Last week I wrote about using stop-loss orders—a subject  worth repeating. So here goes: “When it comes to the ups and downs of investing in stocks, don’t forget that one way to protect yourself when the market turns south is to place a stop-loss on the stocks you want to preserve gains in.

From investopedia.com:”A stop–loss order is an order placed with a broker to sell a security when it reaches a certain price. Stop loss orders are designed to limit an investor’s loss on a position in a security.””

And don’t forget, locking in the gains made from your stock investments is what investing is all about.

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pbTrumpBits#9: Earth Day and Trump’s seawall

Pics of Mar-a-Lago on the day Donald Trump was inaugurated, Friday, January 20, 2017. Note the water level on the seawall.

In the late afternoon of the day The Donald, (remember when he was called that?), took the oath of office to become the 45^th President of the United States, I figured it was in the best interest of all to do some simple water-level documentation.

Knowing that this prez does not believe in climate change, and has plans to cut off funds regarding it, having a snapshot of the water level at Mar-a-Lago’s seawall could one day prove to be worth it  for climate change deniers.

I even thought of starting a contest in which folks could pick the day, date, time and year in which the seawall would be breached and water flood the back lawn of the estate. Only problem is, Florida living brings with it a whole host of rainy, stormy and windy weather, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. And any one of them could raise the level of the water in Lake Worth, aka, the Intracoastal Waterway, behind the estate. Meaning, deciding when the water hits the grass because of climate change could be tricky.

So, my pictures will have to tell the how-climate-change-impacts-Mar-a-Lago story.

Anyone who is able to think knows that climate change isn’t fairy tale or fake news. It’s a true reality that’s backed up with facts like this: Sea levels in South Florida are now about four inches higher  than they were in 1992, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Additionally, every savvy realtor in the state realizes that a rise in sea levels can impact all properties along the ocean and  Intracoastal and swamp property values.  And Palm Beachers aren’t likely to see that as a  “Make America Great Again” plus.

So on this fabulous Earth Day, take the time to celebrate all the glory in nature that surrounds you. Then, take a moment to realize that all things on our planet Earth change over  time. That’s just how it is.

 

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