POCKETBOOK: Week ending July 14, 2018

Here

And from the recent running of the bulls comes this: a fake bull. Kinda sorta made me wonder about our market.

 

• Millennial Yikes!

There’s a different world coming if you’re a believer in survey results

According to a recent 2018 Retirement Preparedness Survey commissioned by PGIM Investments, 31% of millennials aren’t saving for retirement at all BECAUSE they don’t see the point in preparing for it. They responded that “anything can happen between now and then.”

Well, that’s true. But, anything– whatever is meant by it– takes money. And heaps of it–particularly during the decades spent in retirement.

Additionally, 62% of those responding said they plan on retiring when they have enough money (wonder where they expect to get it?) and 66% said that they think full-time jobs would be kaput and that 75% of the public would work as freelancers in the future. And one more thing,  that “people will no longer retire comfortably in the future.”

Oh my.

 

• Market Quick Glance

More ups over the short term, but not so for 1-year return figures.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, July 13, 2018.

–DJIA 1.21% YTD back up into positive territory re previous week’s return of –1.06%.

• 1 yr Rtn 16.08% up from the previous week’s 14.71 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

-S&P 500 4.78% YTD up from last week’s 3.22%

• 1 yr Rtn 14.44% down a hair from last week’s 14.53%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

-NASDAQ 13.36% YTD a jump up from last week’s 11.37%

• 1yr Rtn 24.73% down from last week’s 26.26%

Nasdaq reached a new 52-week high on July 13, 2018 of 7,843.53. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 7,806.6.

-Russell 2000 9.87% YTD down from last week’s 10.74%

• 1yr Rtn 18.34% down from last week’s 20.93%

The Russell 2000 reached a new 52-week high on July 10, 2018 of 1,708.56. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1.

 

-Mutual funds

A repeat.

At the close of business on Thursday, July 5, 2018, the total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had an average return of 4.35%, according to Lipper.

Nonetheless, it’s first still a small cap world as the average cumulative total return for Small-Cap Growth Funds averaged 14.34%.

The category of funds with the closest average y-t-d- return was–surprise surprise–Large Cap  Growth funds at 9.73%.

Double digit y-t-d average returns were also found under the Sector Funds heading with Science & Tech Funds, 12.04%, followed by Global Science/ Tech Funds, 11.64% and then Health/Tech Funds, 10.43%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

• The cost of trade wars

So far, estimates are that this just beginning trade war is going to cost households about $60 more bucks a year. Another source estimates that figure to be more than double–$127 per household.

I’m guessing it’s going to be considerably more. Time will tell.

Till then, consider this from the blog of money manager Doug Kass:

“History has proven that one trade tariff begets another and another until you get a full blown trade war. And the consumer seems to always get screwed. Currency wars always lead to trade wars and vice versa and which in turn could lead to hot war. ”

Kass says that trade wars aren’t supposed to be easy.

I’ll add, not cheap either.

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POCKETBOOK:Week ending Feb. 18, 2017

• If it walks and talks like a bull…

Doug Kass is a stock trader, manages bundles of money,  lives in  Palm Beach  and  has recently changed his outlook on the market.

In his Doug Kass News and Commentary email, dated Feb 15, 2017, he wrote: “As traders, it’s our job to adjust to whatever environment the market presents.

“This is a bull market, the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, and corporate taxes are likely to be slashed in the near future. If the market (or an individual stock) wants to go higher, why fight it?”

Okay.

But stock prices are one thing and personal household debt is quite another.

According to a recent CNNMoney.com story, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that  total household debt was $12.58 trillion at the end of 2016.

From the same CNNMoney piece came this: “For the year, (2016), household debt ballooned by $460 billion—the largest increase in almost a decade.

“That means the debt loads of Americans are flirting with 2008 levels, when total consumer debt reached a record high of $12.68 trillion.”

That’s no bull.

Investors beware

 

• Market Quick Glance

MORE….

More big time scores for the major indices as the week ending Feb. 17, 2017 came to a close. The upward trend was realized in all of the four indices followed below as each reached new all-time highs.

Below are the weekly and 52-week performance results— including the dates each  reached its high—for four popular stock indices, according to data from CNBC.com. Most are based on the close of business prices on Friday, Feb. 17, although a few represent closing prices data from Feb. 15 and Feb. 17. (I don’t know why the different dates but that’s how CNBC reported them.)

-Indices:

-Dow Jones + 4.36% YTD way up from last week’s 2.56%

• 1yr Rtn +25.34% down from last week’s 27.36%

The DJIA reached a 52-week high of 20639.87 on Feb. 16, 2017 (previous all-time high was 20,298.21 was reached on 2/10/17).

 

-S&P 500 +5.02% YTD way up from last week’s 3.45%

• 1yr Rtn +22.02 % down bit last week’s 25.07%

The S&P 500 reached a 52-week high of 2,351.31 on Feb. 16, 2017 (its all-time high of 2,319.23 was reached on 2/10/17).

 

-NASDAQ +8.46% YTD way up from last week’s +5.27%

• 1yr Rtn +28.77% down from last week’s 33.86%

The Nasdaq reached a 52-week high of 5,838.58 on Feb. 17, 2017 ( its all-time high of 5,743.43 was reached on 2/10/17).

 

-Russell 2000 +3.15% up from last week’s +2.34%

• 1yr Rtn +38.44 % down from last week’s +44.15%

The Russell 2000 reached its all-time high of 1,405.21 on Feb.15, 2107 (its previous high of 1,392.71 was reached on 12/9/16).

 

-Mutual funds

Upward and onward.

The average U.S. Diversified Equity Fund had another good week as, at the close of business on Thursday, Feb. 16, 2017, the year-to-date return on funds under that  heading was +4.59%, according to Lipper. That’s a decent  jump from last week’s average of +3.11%.

The losing group under that big umbrella  heading was Equity Leverage Funds, at – 12.37% on average. Winning group:Large-Cap Growth Funds, + 7.41%.

Four fund  types under the Sector Equity Funds umbrella heading now have year-to-date average returns of +10% or greater. They include Precious Metals Funds, the  average + 22.50%; Basic Metals Funds, + 10.36%; Commodities Precious Metals Funds, + 10.34%; Global Science/Technology Funds, + 10.23%; and Commodities Base Metals Funds, + 10%.

Latin American Funds,  on average + 13.36%, and India Region Funds, + 10.77%, are the two  biggest YTD  winners so far this year under the World Equity Funds heading.

The average return of the 4,497 funds under the World Equity Funds umbrella is  + 6.40%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

• For the love of our pets and animals
  

If you’re a dog, or a cat,  a pig, cow, snake or whatever lover, listen up: The global Animal Medication market is projected to reach $42.9 billion by 2018.

That’s according to a management story, “Animal health market to hit $43 billion in five years”, from WesternFarmPress.com.

That medication estimation, however, isn’t even close to the  figures from the American Pet Products Association (APPA). Their estimate for  2016 is $62.75 billion. In 2015, the U.S. Pet Industry Expenditures figures totaled  $60.28 billion, according to APPA.

While those figures are vastly different as the global Animal Medication and APPA represent two different  segments  of the huge pet industry/market, each show what many of us  already know: Every year we spend  a whole lot of money on our pets and animals.

For example, going back to figures from the APPA,  in 2006 U.S. pet industry expenditures totaled$38.5 tillion. In 1996, $21 trillion.

I mention this because the cost and care of our pets, animals and livestock  has been  a huge and growing industry for some time now. And, it might be one in which you’d like to invest.

In the WesternFarmPress.com story the names of the “major players” in the global medication market included companies that most of us  have heard of as they are the makers of many of the meds we two-legged folk take.

If  you’re interested in catching this  pet medication market– hope-it’s-not-too-late– trend by the tail and  would like to research some of the companies  included in the WesternFarmPress piece, they  included: Abbott Animal Health, Bayer HealthCare AG, Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH, Ceva Santé Animale S.A., Dechra Pharmaceuticals PLC, Eli Lilly and Company, Merck Animal Health, Merial Limited, Novartis Animal Health, Inc., Pfizer, Inc., Vetericyn, Inc., Vétoquinol SA, and Virbac SA.

 

 

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