Tag Archives: Commodities

POCKETBOOK Week Ending Dec. 8, 2018

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  • Looking Down Looking Back

There’s no ignoring the performance of equities these days and that’s a good thing. A correcting or bear or underwater market reminds every single investor—and non-investor—that: “Yes, Virginia, stock prices don’t always climb upward as they have for the past almost 10 years.”

So as you review your portfolio, consider that there are always investment opportunities no matter what’s happening on Wall Street. Bunches of investors have made their fortunes investing when equity news hasn’t been so hot.

Furthermore, taking a longer look back on your investment returns may show you things you’ve forgotten.

For instance, The Bespoke Investment Group publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.

Bespoke began publishing the list in 2012 and since that time returns have beaten the S&P 500 by 80.5%.

Today, that list is up 176.8% since inception while the S&P 500’s gain (through 12/6/18) was 96.2%.

So Virginia, things might not be as bad as they appear.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Ed Clissold, a bear market official at Ned Davis Research, says that the bear market is officially here. At the same time, he’s optimistic about next year and expects to see a rally during the second half of 2019.

We shall see.

In case you’ve forgotten, it’s been nearly 10 years since the bear claws have shown up on Wall Street. And, a bear market is defined as a fall of 20% from an index’s recent high.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the four major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, Dec. 7, 2018.

DJIA -1.34% YTD big move down from the previous week’s 3.31%.

  • 1 yr. Rtn 0.73% way down from the previous week 5.22%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500 -1.52% YTD a big move down from last week’s 3.24%

  • 1 yr. Rtn -0.15% way down from last week’s 4.25%

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 0.95% YTD big move down from last week’s 6.19%

  • 1yr Rtn 2.30% way down from last week’s 6.64%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual Funds

The average year-to-date total return for funds that fall under the heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Funds stood at -0.94% at the close of business on Thursday, December 6, 2018, according to Lipper. That’s down from the previous week’s figure of 0.68%.

Fund types with the worst y-t-d returns include  precious and basic metals funds.

For instance: Precious Metals Equity Funds, -21.65% for the year, on average; Basic Metals Funds, -17.92%; and Global Natural Resources Funds, -14.97%

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Got Gas?

Diversifying your investment portfolio has always made sense. Case in point: Commodities.

According to Bespoke Investment Group, while silver, copper, coffee, platinum, oil, gold and corn are all down between -2.9% (corn) and 15.7% (silver), all commodity prices aren’t in the tank.

2018 winners, so far, include orange juice, up 5.4%, wheat, up 5.7% and natural gas, up 47.2%.

Yahoo for gas!

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending July 21, 2018

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We all know that President Trump sees things differently than most. The same is true when it comes to his math.
  • Trump Math

 By now we’ve all learned that President Trump isn’t well-versed in a number of things including American history, manners, telling the truth and yes, even math.

Last week he said that the stock market has gone up 40% since he was elected president. Better not take that to the bank never mind believe it.

According to CNBC.com, the S&P 500 is up 31% since Trump was elected president on Nov. 8, 2016. That’s a far distance from 40%. Additionally, the lion’s share of those gains were made last year in 2017. So far this year, the S&P has gained around 4%.

Math matters to every investor sophisticated or not,  Democrat, Republican, Independent or the Un-politically interested.

Bottom line: Betting on Trump’s math could be detrimental to one’s portfolio expectations.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

A few ups and a few downs but what counts the most is how your portfolio is doing.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, July 20, 2018.

DJIA 1.37% YTD up a tiny bit previous week’s return of 1.21%.

  • 1 yr Rtn 15.95% down from the previous week’s 16.08 %

Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.

 

-S&P 500 4.80% YTD up a hair from last week’s 4.78%

  • 1 yr Rtn 13.28% down from last week’s 14.44%

The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.

 

-NASDAQ 13.28% YTD down a bit from last week’s 13.36%

  • 1yr Rtn 22.38% down from last week’s 24.73%

Nasdaq reached a new 52-week high on July 17, 2018 of 7,867.15. The previous high was reached on July 13, 2018 of 7,843.53.

 

-Russell 2000 10.50% YTD up from last week’s 9.87%

  • 1yr Rtn 17.64% down from last week’s 18.34%

The Russell 2000 reached a new 52-week high on July 10, 2018 of 1,708.56. The previous high was reached on June 20, 2018 of 1,708.1.

 

-Mutual funds

A y-t-d total return for the average equity fund has handsomely outperformed the year-to-date returns of the DJIA and S&P500 by a couple of percentage points.

And, at the close of business on Thursday, July 19, 2018, the total return performance of the funds under the U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading had an average return was 6.49%, according to Lipper.

To compare, th DJIA on Friday had a y-t-d return of about 1.4% and the S&P 500, 4.8%.

Nonetheless, it’s first still a small cap world as the average cumulative total return for Small-Cap Growth Funds continue to be the out performers averaging 17.41% returns, followed by Mid-Cap Growth funds, 12.34% then Multi-Cap Growth, 12.32%.

The only other category of funds coming close to the Small-Cap performance was Science & Tech Funds with a y-t-d average return of 15.57%.

On the other hand, the average y-t-d Commodities Base Metals Funds performance stinks— it was -17.85%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • Golden Cross

The price of gold can’t seem to get out of its own way.

Gold analysts are now saying that the price of this precious metal has entered into a death cross. My, that’s ugly. And, that  they don’t see anything but more bad news ahead.

A death cross is a bearish technical signal that happens when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average. And that’s not happy news for those betting on the price of gold moving out of the woods anytime soon.

On the other hand, gold could be a buy for bottom buyers and those who consider themselves long-term optimistic  investors.

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