Tag Archives: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

POCKETBOOK Week Ending March 22, 2019

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  • Recession coming?

The bond market is signaling a recession could be in our near future and if that is the case, word is recessions typically last around a year and during them stocks don’t always perform horribly during one. The bugaboo in it all, however, is inflation: It and recessions are first cousins and no one is a fan of it. Then again, we’re already seeing price increases on plenty of the items we purchase thanks to the tariffs Trump has imposed.

Oh well, another day in the upside down, topsy turvery pretzel-like who-is-on-first world we all are currently living in.

But I degress.

Back to the recession subject.

From CNBC MarketInsider.com comes this: “As far as recession goes, our economist feels quite optimistic that a recession will be avoided, at least this year. The market is focused not only on U.S. fundamentals but also on what’s happening in China, what’s happening in the rest of the world and how likely it is that political uncertainty, whether through trade policy or whatever, how likely is that to persist and beget a recession,” said Mark Cabana, head of short U.S.rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch…..
“As recession signals begin to flash and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there’s a risk that it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Cabana said.”

Okay then.

 

  • Pew Research’s not-so-bright future study returns

A recent Pew research report has shed light on some not-so-happy or inspiring future outcomes. In other words, looking out 30 years, things aren’t looking very rosy.

Below are a few of results from the Pew Research Center Social & Demographic Trends report dated March 21, 2019:

  • 7 in 10 Americans were dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country.
  • 60% of those interviewed say the U.S. will be less important in the world by 2050.
  • 73% think that the gap between the rich and poor will continue to grow.
  • 65% say the country will be more politically devided over the next 30 years.
  • And, the majority of those responding expect the economy to be weaker, health care less affordable, the environment worse and  that older Americans will have a harder time makes ends meet than they do now.

Oh my.

 

  • Market Quick Glance

A week of mixed year-to-date returns with 1-year returns up.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ — including the dates each reached new highs. Data is according to CNBC.com and based on prices at the close of business on Friday, March 22, 2019.

DJIA 9.32% YTD up a tad from the previous week’s 9.10%.

  • 1 yr. Rtn 6.45% way up from the previous week 2.23%

Most recent DJIA a new ALL-TIME CLOSING HIGH was reached on Oct.3, 2018 of 26,951.81. The previous high was reached on Sept. 21, 2018 of 26,796.16.

 

-S&P 500   11.72% YTD down from the previous week’s 12.59%

  • 1 yr. Rtn 5.94% way up from the previous week’s 2.74%.

The S&P 500 reached a BRAND NEW CLOSING ALL-TIME HIGH on Sept. 21, 2018 of 2,940.91. The previous closing high was reached on August 29, 2018 of 2,916.50.

 

-NASDAQ 15.18% YTD down a hair from last week’s 15.87%%

  • 1yr Rtn 6.64% up from last week’s 2.76%

Nasdaq reached a BRAND NEW 52-week CLOSING HIGH on August 30, 2018 of 8,1333.30. The previous high was reached on August 24, 2018 of 7,949.71.

 

-Mutual funds

The year-to-date cumulative total reinvested performance for equity funds that fall under the  U.S. Diversified Equity Fund heading was 14.26% at the close of business on Thursday, March 21, 2019, according to Lipper.

Among the 408 Mid-Cap Growth Funds that fall under that huge Diversified category, the average year-to-date return was an impressive 20.17%. Small-Cap Growth Funds, however, performed better: 20.37% for the 592 funds that Lipper tracks in that group.

And then there are Equity Leverage Funds—-the average YTD performance of the 228 funds under that heading was 28.36%.

On the other hand, Dedicated Short Bias Funds’ average YTD return was -20.61%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

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POCKETBOOK: Week ending July 21, 2017

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  • Both Sides

On the one hand, the VIX ,(it’s designed to track stock market fear), is at its lowest level —-hold on to your hat– in 24 years. That puts it when Bill Clinton was president. This according to BusinessInsider.com.

In another BusinessInsider.com piece,  private client cash levels are reportedly super low because those folks would rather invest in the market than to hold cash. True for institutional investors, too. Reason being ecause of the continued robust returns in the U.S. and many global markets.

On the other hand,  there is something referred to as the “Icarus trade”. Or simply put, flying too close to the sun eventually burns everybody.

According to a client note from strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “A big fall in markets…. will be an autumn, not summer event…. and Icarus won’t soar forever.”

 

  • Market Quick Glance

Last week, and for the most part, the bulls were still running—with one exception, the DJIA. It lost ground for the week and in its 1-year return.

Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, July 21,  2017.

 

-DJIA + 9.20% YTD down from last week’s +9.49%

  • 1 yr Rtn +16.54% down from last week’s 16.92%

The DJIA reached a new all-time high on July 14, 2017 of 21,681.53.

(Previous high was on July 3,2017 of 21,562.75. Prior to that high dates include: 21,535.03 on June 20, 2017; 21,391.97 reached on June 14, 2017; 21,305.35 on June 9, 2017; 21,225.04 on June 2, 2017; and 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.)

 

-S&P 500 +10.44% YTD up from last week’s 9.85%

  • 1yr Rtn +14.20% up from last week’s +13.66%

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 2,477.62 on July 20, 2017.

(Prior to that date new highs and dates include: 2,463.54 on July 14, 2017; 2453.82 on June 19,2017; 2,446.2 reached on June 9, 2017; 2,440.23 reached on June 2, 2017; 2,418.71 reached on May 25, 2017; 2,405.77 reached on May 16, 2017; 2403.87 on May 9, 2017; 2,400.98 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-NASDAQ +18.66% YTD up from last week’s +17.26%

  • 1yr Rtn +25.89% up from last week’s 25.40%

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high on July 20, 2017 of 6,398.26

(Previous high include: 6,341.7 on June 9, 2017; 6,308.76 on June 2; 6,217.34 reached on May 25; 6,170,16 on May 16; 6,133 on May 9, 2017; 6102.72 on May 2, 2017; 6074.04 on April 28, 2017; and 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)

 

-Russell 2000 +5.80% YTD up from last week’s +5.28%

  • 1yr Rtn +19.27% up from last week’s +18.85%

The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high of 1,452.05 on July 21, 2017.

(Previous highs include: 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017; 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)

 

-Mutual funds

The average U.S. Diversified Equity Fund gained ground last week and closed at 9.84% at the end of the business day on Thursday, July 20, 2017, according to Lipper. That’s up from the previous week’s close of 8.74%.

Of the 8,549 U.S.Diversified Equtiy Funds heading, Equity Leverage Funds lead the way with a YTD average return of 22.19%.  Dedicated Short Bias Funds lost ground with the average YTD return for funds in it -14.23 %.

Sector Equity Funds showed their stuff with Global Science/Technology Funds YTD average returns of 29.97%. Commodities Energy Funds were the losers at -17.48%.

Under the World Equity Funds heading India Region Funds continued to shine, up for the year an average of 30.42%.The closest downer, still above 10%, were Global Equity Income Funds, 10.72%.

And shareholders of Mixed Asset Funds had the sweetest YTD returns if they were invested in Mixed-Asset Target 2055+Funds, 12.70%. Lowest returns, although still on the plus-side of the grade, were in Alternative Multi-Strategy Funds, 2.18%.

Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.

 

  • On the lighter side…

It’s summertime. People are traveling and flying more. Getting squeezed more, too. But small seats and limited leg space isn’t the point of this brief. Nope, the subject is food. Airplane food. Good and bad. Food that passengers seated in all classes– from those in the back-of-the-plane to those in first-class and private jets—are offered.

In a Bloomberg.com piece titled “Why You Should Never Eat Food on Planes, and Other Jet-Set Tips” by Mark Elwood, I read that one well-traveled stewardess had a “tried-and-true” secret: Forget eating in-flight.

Why? When flying high, your digestive system shuts down.

As a result, once back on Earth that same system has to start working harder just to get things moving and doing so makes you tired.

Wanna land feeling refreshed, forget about eating and over-eating. Instead, drink oodles and oodles of water. You and your body will likely be much happier.

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