Another bull’s birthday
The bull market is going to be 9 this week. In dog years that would be 63 in human years. Okay okay—I know there’s nothing that really connects bulls with dogs and humans but then again, from a human’s point of view, 63 represents an age of maturity. One, that some figure, is an age worthy of retirement.
A look back at the historic lengths of bull markets between 1926 through 2017 represented by S&P 500 Index total returns reveals that a bull market lasts on average 9 years, according to FirstTrust (FTPortfolios.com). That puts this market in watch-for-bears territory.
The longest bull market ,relating to that same index, lasted 13.9 years (from the 1930s-early 1940s), with an average annualized rate of return of 17.2%. The shortest, 2.5 years in the early 1970s in which the average annualized gain was 25.3%.
Clearly, this bull market has been running a long time but more importantly, bulls don’t run forever.
Then again, this same source reveals that S&P500 Index bear markets have a history of being much shorter in length averaging only 1.4 years.
Market Quick Glance
Back peddling and who knows for how long.
If, at the beginning of this year, you invested into an S&P 500 index fund or one that tracks the Russell 2000 you’ve lost money. Not so with the Nasdaq.
Who knows what the year-to-date returns will be by the end of this week but here’s a bet worth considering: If Trump continues to be hell-bent on imposing tariffs on the steel and aluminum that the US imports, the market might have a hell-bent time of moving upward.
Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results for four major indices— including the dates each reached new highs—according to CNBC.com based on prices at the close of business on Friday, March 3, 2018.
–DJIA -0.73% YTD down and back into minus land–the previous week +2.02%
- 1 yr Rtn 16.83% down from the previous week’s 22.31%
Most recent DJIA all-time high was reached on January 26, 2018 of 26,616.71. The previous high was reached January 18, 2018 was 26,153.42.
-S&P 500 +0.66% YTD significantly down from last week’s 2.76%
- 1 yr Rtn +12.99% down from last week’s 16.40%
The S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on January 26, 2018 of 2,872.87. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 2810.33.
-NASDAQ +5.13 YTD down from last week’s 6.29%
- 1yr Rtn +23.83% down from last week’s 27.74%
Nasdaq latest new all-time high of 7,505.77 was reached on January 26, 2018. The previous high was reached on January 19, 2018 of 7,336.38.
-Russell 2000 -0.15%YTD down into minus land from last week’s 0.89%
- 1yr Rtn +9.85% down from last week’s +11.08%
The Russell 2000 reached an all-time high on January 24, of 1,615.52. The previous high was reached on January 16, 2018 of 1,604.02.
Reflecting a not-so-hot week for stocks, the year-to-date average cumulative total reinvested returns for equity funds that fall under the broad U.S. Diversified Equity Funds heading was -0.31% at the close of business on Thursday, March 2, 2018, according to Lipper.
Near the end of 2017, many talking heads were projecting that markets outside of the U.S. were going to be the ones likely to score well this year. That however, hasn’t necessarily been the case. For instance, the year-to-date return for the average World Equity Fund was 0.11% as of Thursday’s close. There are 4,453 funds that fall under that broad heading.
Areas doing well and not-so-well under that heading include: Latin American Funds and China Region Funds, up 6.28% and3.66% respectively, on average. And, on the other hand, India Region Funds and Global Equity Income Funds were down on average -5.40% and -2.08% respectively.
Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.
Kohl’s and Aldi a match made in heaven?
There’s a maybe unlikely new couple coming to town: Kohl’s, the retailer that sends out so many discount coupons to their credit card holders that you wonder how in the world they make any money—-and Aldi, the German grocer that sells its food stuff and goodies at prices that don’t need any coupons to get shoppers into their stores.
The deal is, Kohl’s has too many stores with too much space in them and has plans to cut the size of its footprints, while Aldi is expected to open 900 new stores over the next five years, according to USA Today.
So, the idea is to lob off some of existing Kolh’s stores space to make Aldi its next door neighbor.
If you’re a shopper of both, the idea makes sense. If you’re not, it might be time to try shopping at either.