4th of July and the S&P 500.
It’s a holiday week with the markets enjoying limited hours and closed all day on Tuesday for Independence Day.
For those curious about how the S&P 500 has performed since 1990 during previous 4th of July weeks, the fine folks at The Bespoke Group have done some looking back to inform us.
Although Bespoke’s data shows returns for every week day of the year since 1990, I’m showing only the returns in the years in which the 4th fell on a Tuesday. Previous to this one, there are three of them.
The 4th’s weekly returns were based on closing prices on the Friday before the week of the 4th and ending at the end of the holiday week are as follows. Below are the 4th falling on Tuesday figures:
-In 1995, the return for the first half of the year for the S&P 500 was up 18.61%. And, at the end of the week in which the 4th fell, it was up 2.13%.
-In 2000, the S&P 500 was down 1% at the end of the first half of the year. The return for the July 4th week was up 1.67%.
-In 2006, the first half return was up 1.76%. At the end of the July 4th week the S&P was down 0.37%.
-This year, 2017, the S&P 500 was up 8.27% at mid-year.
How it ends the 4th of July week is anybody’s guess.
Market Quick Glance
The only index that experienced a plus week from their previous week’s close was the Russell 2000. The other three saw year-to-date returns slide with NASDAQ’s falling the most. Nontheless, for many index investors, 2017 has been a rewarding year.
Below are the weekly and 1-year index performance results— including the dates each reached new highs— according to data from CNBC.com. Data is based on prices at the close of business for the week ending on Friday, June 30, 2017.
-DJIA + 8.03% YTD down from last week’s +8.26%
- 1 yr Rtn +19.07% up from last week’s 18.79%
The DJIA reached a new all-time high of 21,535.03 on June 20, 2017. (Previous high of 21,391.97 reached on June 14, 2017; before it 21,305.35 on June 9, 2017; 21,225.04 on June 2, 2017; and 21,169.11 on March 1, 2017.)
-S&P 500 +8.24% YTD down a hair from last week’s 8.91%
- 1yr Rtn +15.46% up a chuck from last week’s +15.38%
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 2,453.82 on June 19,2017. (Previous high of 2,446.2 was reached on June 9, 2017. Before that 2,440.23 was reached on June 2, 2017; 2,418.71 reached on May 25, 2017; 2,405.77 reached on May 16, 2017; 2403.87 on May 9, 2017; 2,400.98 reached on March 1, 2017.)
-NASDAQ +14.07% YTD down from last week’s +16.39%
- 1yr Rtn +26.80% down from last week’s 27.60%
The Nasdaq reached its most recent new all-time high of 6,341.7 on June 9, 2017. (Previous highs include: 6,308.76 on June 2; 6,217.34 reached on May 25; 6,170,16 on May 16; 6,133 on May 9, 2017; 6102.72 on May 2, 2017; 6074.04 on April 28, 2017; and 5,936.39 on April 5, 2017.)
-Russell 2000 +4.29% YTD up a hair from last week’s +4.25%
- 1yr Rtn +22.87% up from last week’s +20.69%
The Russell 2000 reached its latest all-time high of 1,433.789 on June 9, 2017. (Previous highs include 1,425.7 reached on April 26, 2017 and of 1,414,82 reached on March 1, 2017.)
Only a bit of a change in the average total return for funds that fall under the broad heading of U.S. Diversified Equity Fund. At the close of business on Thursday, June 29, 2017 the average equity fund’s year-to-date return was 7.52%. The previous week’s figure was 7.57%.
It’s still a Big World world for attractive returns. Year-to-date the average return for the 4,524 funds under World Equity Funds heading was the same last week as it was the previous at 15.28%.
The average Sector Equity Fund, a heading of 28 different fund types and includes everything from Health/Biotech, to Precious Metals and Commodies Energy had a year-to-date total return of 4.47%.
Mixed Asset Funds had an average return of 6.54%; Domestic L-T Fixed Income Funds, 2.56%; and World Income Funds, 6.04%
Visit www.allaboutfunds.com for more information about how various equity and fixed-income funds have rewarded investors over the short-and long-term, based upon Lipper data. Short-term meaning weekly and monthly performance returns; longer-term includes quarterly, year-to-date, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr returns.
Investor sentiments waning?
Every week AAII reports the results of their sentiment survey.
During the week ending June 30,2017 results showed the bulls weren’t quite as popular as they once were as optimism about the markets fell from 32.65% down to 29.71%.
According to a Bespoke report, “That now makes it a record 130 straight week where half of the investors surveyed were not bullish.”
But wait. There’s more.
Even though the optimists are losing ground, so are the pessimists as bearish sentiment also fell. It went from 28.91% to 26.86% during that same time period.